One word for the market today...Gold! If you missed it like most people did, then don't stress because it did happen and it will still present plenty of opportunities in coming months. With the recent restoration of the Euro after Greece conceded a form of defeat and went back to austerity measures, the markets are looking to unwind some very large hedges, or so it would seem.
The case and point here is that this was purposely done during a period of low liquidity to adversely affect markets, and did exactly that. A large contract dump in the space of minutes led in turn to a $50.00 drop on the charts and many scratching their heads. What we have seen is all support levels broken now and we will probably look for gold to pullback on the charts after such a massive sell-off.
Targeting gold here I would be aiming for strong areas of resistance which will see a solid retest then further sell-offs. So at present the two major levels are likely to be 1130 and 1160, any push up to 1130 would bring the bears back into the market sharply at this stage. Certainly these sort of moves in commodities are rare and bring a good dose of volatility to the precious metal sector which does mint a few new millionaires if they play it right.
USDCAD traders enjoyed another opening session of higher highs as the CAD looked to get hammered again and we could certainly be in for a rough ride as oil prices look to slip yet again. Reports are circulating that Iran has stockpiled 50 million barrels of oil in preparation of the lifting of sanctions. A sudden flood of surplus could quickly push oil prices lower, which in turn could lead to some heavy selling of the CAD again. The next major resistance level is 1.3330 and its certainly worth watching to see if the USDCAD climbs higher to this level where we could see some heavy selling finally again. In the mean time though the trend is very much your friend.
The Aussie dollar is likely to be the big news story shortly on the charts, as monetary policy meeting minutes are due out soon. Certainly many have been itching to see where the Reserve Bank of Australia stands on the subject of interest rates as of late, as many are picking a cut much like its neighbour New Zealand. Either way the market is looking to make a move lower and I would be picking a drop to 0.7304 in the coming days if we see further negative sentiment from the RBA. Which seems like clock-work some times for them, but the market is certainly quite sensitive at present.
Certainly it's a light news day ahead of us and many will be thinking volatility may be low, but we were caught out this morning by gold's movements and we could see further shifts in prices. Certainly the USDJPY and AUDUSD are going to be the ones to watch in the early Asia session as we can generally expect a decent amount of movement, as well as people trying to play with liquidity in the metals markets.
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