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17:12 USD/JPY declines to near 143.00 as Japanese Yen outperforms, BoJ policy in focus
The USD/JPY pair falls sharply to near 143.00 during North American hours on Monday. The pair declines as the Japanese Yen (JPY) trades strongly at the start of the week, with investors awaiting the monetary policy announcement by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) on Thursday.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}USD/JPY falls to near 143.00 amid strength in Japanese Yen ahead of BoJ’s policy on Thursday.The BoJ is expected to keep rates steady at 0.5% amid uncertainty over how Trump’s tariff policies will shape the global economic outlook.US Bessent has indicated that the ball is in China’s court when asked about development on US-China trade talks.The USD/JPY pair falls sharply to near 143.00 during North American hours on Monday. The pair declines as the Japanese Yen (JPY) trades strongly at the start of the week, with investors awaiting the monetary policy announcement by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) on Thursday. Japanese Yen PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Swiss Franc. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.04% -0.39% -0.34% -0.12% -0.13% -0.01% -0.12% EUR -0.04% -0.49% -0.41% -0.18% -0.27% -0.06% -0.18% GBP 0.39% 0.49% 0.08% 0.33% 0.20% 0.43% 0.32% JPY 0.34% 0.41% -0.08% 0.26% 0.25% -1.07% 0.49% CAD 0.12% 0.18% -0.33% -0.26% -0.13% 0.11% 0.00% AUD 0.13% 0.27% -0.20% -0.25% 0.13% 0.22% 0.09% NZD 0.00% 0.06% -0.43% 1.07% -0.11% -0.22% -0.12% CHF 0.12% 0.18% -0.32% -0.49% -0.01% -0.09% 0.12% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote). On Monday, Japanese markets remained closed on account of Showa Day.This week, the BoJ is expected to leave interest rates at their current levels of 0.5% for the second time in a row. Therefore, investors will pay close attention to the monetary policy statement and Bank Governor Kazuo Ueda’s press conference to know whether the central bank will raise interest rates in the near term.Investors doubt that the BoJ will hike its borrowing rates soon, as tariffs announced by United States (US) President Donald Trump are expected to diminish Japan’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth. However, accelerating inflationary pressures keep the doors of tight monetary policy wide open.Statistics Bureau of Japan reported on Friday that Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) excluding Fresh Food rose at a robust pace of 3.4% in March, compared to estimates of 3.2% and the prior release of 2.4%.Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) ticks lower amid uncertainty over trade talks between the US and China. During North American trading hours on Monday, the comments from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have indicated that the outlook for US-China trade is in the hands of Beijing. “I believe that it’s up to China to de-escalate, because they sell five times more to us than we sell to them, Bessent said in an interview on CNBC’s Squawk Box and added, so these 120%, 145% tariffs are unsustainable. These comments came after Bessent was asked about progress in trade talks with China and how long higher tariffs by both nations will be sustained. Bessent further added that Chinese exemptions show “they want de-escalation on trade."Last week, China stated that it is considering suspending additional tariffs on imports of medical equipment and some industrial chemicals from the US. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

16:40 ECB's Rehn: We should not rule out rate cuts below neutral rate
European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Olli Rehn said on Monday that underlying inflationary pressures in the Eurozone are easing, per Reuters.

16:36 ECB’s de Guindos: Incoming data suggest modest growth in the first quarter of 2025
European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos told European lawmakers in Brussels on Monday that incoming data suggest that the Eurozone economy grew at a modest pace in the first quarter of 2025, per Reuters.

15:10 US Treasury Sec. Bessent: All aspects of government are in contact with China
In an interview with CNBC on Monday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the all aspects of the government are in contact with China, per Reuters.

15:00 Mexico Trade Balance, $ climbed from previous $2.212B to $3.442B in March
Mexico Trade Balance, $ climbed from previous $2.212B to $3.442B in March

15:00 Mexico Jobless Rate s.a: 2.6% (March) vs previous 2.7%
Mexico Jobless Rate s.a: 2.6% (March) vs previous 2.7%

15:00 Mexico Trade Balance s/a, $ dipped from previous $1.269B to $1.035B in March
Mexico Trade Balance s/a, $ dipped from previous $1.269B to $1.035B in March

15:00 Mexico Jobless Rate dipped from previous 2.5% to 2.2% in March
Mexico Jobless Rate dipped from previous 2.5% to 2.2% in March

14:47 JPY is up slightly – Scotiabank
Japanese Yen (JPY) is entering Monday’s NA session with a marginal gain against the US Dollar (USD), Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

Japanese Yen (JPY) is entering Monday’s NA session with a marginal gain against the US Dollar (USD), Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. Markets remain focused on trade negotiations"JPY is entering Monday’s NA session with a marginal gain vs. the USD, trading with limited movement along with most of the other G10 currencies. Trade remains in focus, as markets eye news of fresh negotiations later this week." "The tone remains constructive heading into the talks. Japan will release industrial production and retail sales data this week, ahead of Friday’s BoJ policy decision where the central bank is widely expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at 0.50%."

14:45 GBP outperforming with marginal gain – Scotiabank
Pound Sterling (GBP) is up a modest 0.2% in quiet trade, outperforming most of the G10 currencies heading into Monday’s NA session, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

Pound Sterling (GBP) is up a modest 0.2% in quiet trade, outperforming most of the G10 currencies heading into Monday’s NA session, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. CBI sentiment better than expected"The CBI sentiment figures were slightly better than expected but still negative overall and at the lower end of their recent historical ranges. There are no major data releases scheduled ahead of the May 8 Bank of England policy decision." "Markets are pricing 26.5bpts of easing (more than one full cut) and pricing just over 90bpts of cumulative easing by December. The BoE will also release its lates inflation report, along with a fresh set of forecasts that will provide some insight into the Bank’s views on the economic impact of US tariffs." "GBP/USD’s bullish trend is intact, and looks set be maintained despite last week’s pullback. The RSI is bullish and hovering well above 50 in the mid-60s. Near-term support is expected in the mid/lower-1.32s and resistance is expected above 1.3400."

14:43 EUR soft in quiet trade – Scotiabank
Euro (EUR) is soft, entering Monday’s session with a marginal decline against the US Dollar (USD) and underperforming most of the G10 currencies in quiet trade, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

Euro (EUR) is soft, entering Monday’s session with a marginal decline against the US Dollar (USD) and underperforming most of the G10 currencies in quiet trade, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. ECB comments continue to lean dovish"The euro area’s preliminary CPI release is this week’s highlight and scheduled for release on Friday. The ECB speech calendar is also somewhat heavy and comments from Governing Council member Knot and Villeroy have leaned dovish, flagging disinflationary forces." "The bull trend in EUR/USD is intact despite this latest consolidation generally bound between 1.13 and 1.15. Momentum has softened somewhat, but the RSI remains well above the 50 threshold at 62."

14:42 CAD holds near fair value as markets await election outcome – Scotiabank
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is all but unchanged on the session as the country goes to the polls.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is all but unchanged on the session as the country goes to the polls. Today’s Federal election results will start trickling in from 7-7.30ET for the Atlantic provinces when the polls close, then tumble out of vote-rich Quebec and Ontario after 9.30ET (when central Canada also reports), Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. CAD trades flat on the day"There are 200 seats up for grabs in these two provinces and their results will very likely give a strong indication as to which way the country is voting. BC and Yukon voting ends at 10ET. The election race appears to have tightened in its final days, with polling showing the Liberals’ lead over the Conservatives narrowing to two points (41-39%). CAD o/n vol has picked up (10.8%) but pricing is not especially elevated. The election outcome is unlikely to move the CAD materially, assuming a majority win for either party." "The biggest risk is perhaps that the result delivers a narrow minority government which may lead to the perception that Canada’s negotiating leverage with the US over trade somewhat compromised. Canadian Retail Sales were as soft as expected in February, data Friday showed. But the preliminary report for March indicated a solid 0.7% rise. Sales still look soft for Q1 overall. Spot continues to hold close to our fair value estimate (1.3826 today)." "The daily charts reflected a couple of potential bullish cues for the USD last week—a bull 'hammer' signal Monday and a firm bid for the USD off Wednesday’s intraday low. But there has been no obvious sign of a pick-up in demand for the USD. Daily/weekly trend strength signals remain bearish for the USD, suggesting limited scope for gains. Resistance is 1.3950/55 and 1.4025/30. Support (major) is 1.3745. Technicals still favour fading USD gains."

14:38 USD narrowly mixed in quiet trade – Scotiabank
Trading is off to a quiet start in NFP week. Asian and European stocks are mixed to a little firmer but US equity futures are down slightly, while bonds are a tad softer. The US Dollar (USD) itself is mixed.

Trading is off to a quiet start in NFP week. Asian and European stocks are mixed to a little firmer but US equity futures are down slightly, while bonds are a tad softer. The US Dollar (USD) itself is mixed. The Euro (EUR) and Swiss Franc (CHF) are a little weaker on the session while the Japanese Yen (JPY) and Pound Sterling (GBP) are slightly firmer but it’s all pretty marginal, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. USD narrowly mixed as consolidation extends absent trade news"There were no major tariff developments over the weekend. US officials continue to indicate trade that talks with some Asian countries are progressing but there is no sign of movement from China. Chinese retailers (Temu, Shein) are boosting prices for US consumers significantly in response to tariffs, however, sustaining concerns that tariffs will deliver a significant supply shock to the US economy. In remarks hitting the tape early Monday, President Trump said there was 'no red line' that would alter tariff policy (presumably a reference to market developments)." "Friday’s U. Michigan Sentiment data saw some slight improvement from the preliminary data, likely reflecting President Trump’s tariff pause, but the data were still poor—reflecting a slide in current sentiment and expectations and a clear pick-up in inflation expectations that appears now to be reflecting less of a partisan split than a general worry that tariffs mean more inflation. The 1-year inflation expectation of 6.5% in April jumped from 5.0% in March and has all but doubled since January. Policymakers will take note." "At the same time, Wall St concerns about a recession remain apparent. Despite the rebound in equities from the April low, sentiment remains fragile. Earnings reports this week and particularly how firms characterize the outlook may be influential for broader market sentiment ahead of Friday’s jobs data. The DXY retains a soft undertone, with the recent consolidation holding below technical resistance just under the 100 level. A clear push above 100 could see the index squeeze up to the 102 before better selling emerges."

14:21 AUD/USD trades indecisively around 0.6400, US-Aussie data in focus
The AUD/USD pair recovers initial losses and turns flat around 0.6400 during European trading hours on Monday. The Aussie pair trades indecisively as investors await a slew of United States (US) economic and Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which will be released this week.

14:17 JPY: Room for further JPY strength even if BoJ expresses more caution – MUFG
The tentative improvement in global investor risk sentiment contributed to the underperformance of the yen over the past week alongside the other traditional safe haven currency of the Swiss franc.

The tentative improvement in global investor risk sentiment contributed to the underperformance of the yen over the past week alongside the other traditional safe haven currency of the Swiss franc. It has resulted in USD/JPY rising back up to the 144.00-level after briefly falling below the 140.00-level at the start of last week. The weaker yen and improving risk sentiment have helped to fully reverse 'Liberation Day' losses (~15%) for the Japanese Topix equity index overnight, MUFG's FX analyst Lee Hardman notes.Yen weakens amid improving risk sentiment"The main event for the yen this week will be the BoJ’s latest policy meeting. It will be the first policy update since President Trump’s 'Liberation Day' tariffs announcement. The BoJ will have to take into account the negative impact of trade disruption when they set monetary policy in the week ahead. At the previous policy meeting in March, the BoJ had already expressed caution when Governor Ueda stated that 'it is not easy to make a judgement' on whether they are getting closer to their goal given high uncertainty surrounding trade and other policies from overseas while indicating he hoped things would become a clearer at the beginning of April.""The significant upside surprise from the Tokyo CPI report for April was supportive for further policy normalization in Japan. However, trade disruption will discourage the BoJ from hiking rates further in the near-term. A quick trade agreement between the US and Japan to reverse tariff hikes could give the BoJ more confidence to hike rates further but that appears unlikely until later this year. The Japanese rate market has already pushed back expectations for the timing of the next BoJ hike from June-July to September-December.""Overall, the developments do not change our view that the JPY is likely to strengthen further alongside slowing global growth which will encourage other major central banks including the Fed to deliver deeper rate cuts that continue to narrow yield differentials with Japan. Over the past week officials from the BoE, ECB and Fed have all indicated that they are ready to lower rates in response to evidence of weakening economic growth in the coming months."

14:14 USD: Will the nonfarm payrolls report support expectations for Fed cuts? – MUFG
The major currency rates have remained relatively stable overnight following on from last week’s modest rebound for the US dollar.

The major currency rates have remained relatively stable overnight following on from last week’s modest rebound for the US dollar. It brought an end to the run of four consecutive weekly declines for the dollar index which has risen back up towards the 100.00-level after hitting a year to date low of 97.921 on 25th April, MUFG's FX analyst Lee Hardman notes. US Dollar stabilizes after recent declines"The US dollar derived some support last week from building investor optimism that President Trump may further reverse the disruptive trade policies he has put in place during his second term in the coming months including significantly lowering the current “unsustainable” tariff rate of 145% applied to imports from China. At the same time, President Trump stated clearly that he has no plans to fire Fed Chair Powell which has helped to restore some much-needed confidence in US policymaking after the big hit to confidence that has taken place during most of this month triggered initially by the 'Liberation Day' tariffs announcement on 2nd April.":The improvement in investor confidence in US policymaking was also evident by last week’s performance of the US bond and equity markets. The S&P 500 equity index continued to rebound and has now reversed most of the losses initially sustained following the 'Liberation Day' tariffs announcement when it fell by almost 15%. Similarly, the US bond market has been rebounding since US yields hit a high on 9th April. The 30-year US Treasury yield has fallen back towards 4.70% moving further below the year to date high of 5.02%. However, we remain unconvinced that the policy u-turn announced so far will be sufficient to trigger a sustained rebound for the US dollar with current tariff rates still hugely disruptive to global trade and the US economy.""Dovish comments from Fed officials at the end of last week indicated that they are ready to lower rates if downside risk to growth materialize. Fed Governor Waller stated “it wouldn’t surprise me that you might start seeing more layoffs, a tick up in the unemployment rate going forward if the big tariffs in particular come back on. If I see a significant drop in the labour market, then the employment side of the mandate, I think, is important that we step in”. However, he doesn’t expect the tariffs to have a significant impact on the Us economy before July signalling that he currently favours waiting until the September FOMC meeting before beginning to cut rates unless the labour market weakens more quickly than expected."

14:13 US Dollar steadies near pivotal breakout level ahead of data-packed week
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, trades broadly flat on Monday just below the 100.00-marker.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The US Dollar trades broadly flat as traders brace for a very packed week of geopolitical events and US data. The Trump administration insists that it is in talks with China on trade, but China keeps dismissing these claims. The US Dollar Index remains capped below the 100.00 round level. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, trades broadly flat on Monday just below the 100.00-marker. Over the weekend, United States (US) Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said trade deal negotiations with several Asian countries are underway, while US Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins added that the Trump administration is having “daily conversations” with China over tariffs.However, China said on Monday that it is not engaged in trade negotiations with the US. The country reiterated that there are no winners in a tariff trade war and that the US should talk on a basis of mutual respect, Bloomberg reported. On the economic calendar front, a very packed week is ahead. The data will likely help traders assess if the Federal Reserve (Fed) will deliver an interest-rate cut in its upcoming policy meeting on May 7. The main attention this week will be on Wednesday, with the first reading of the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter. Next, on Friday, the US Employment report for April – which includes the all-important Nonfarm Payrolls number – is the main event to close off the week. Daily digest market movers: To talk or not to talkThe Trump administration over the weekend has commented repeatedly that it is in talks with China on a trade deal. China said on Monday it is certainly not in any trade talks, Bloomberg reports. The US economic calendar is light on Monday. At 14:30 GMT, the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index for April is due. No forecast available with the previous reading at -16.3.There are no scheduled Federal Reserve speakers this week as the blackout period has started ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and rate decision on May 7. Equities trade mixed this Monday. The only outlier was the Japanese Topix, which closed nearly 1% up. European equities are broadly positive, while US futures look rather sluggish. The CME FedWatch tool shows the chance of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in May’s meeting stands at 8.9% against a 91.1% probability of no change. The June meeting has around a 61.9% chance of a rate cut. The US 10-year yields trade around 4.26%, looking for direction at the calm start the week. US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: No clarity, no movement The US Dollar Index (DXY) is not going anywhere as traders are keeping their powder dry for the US data later this week and amid constant woes over whether the US and China are in talks about trade. On the upside, the DXY’s first resistance comes in at 100.22, which supported the DXY back in September 2024, with a break back above the 100.00 round level as a bullish signal. A firm recovery would be a return to 101.90, which acted as pivotal level throughout December 2023 and again as base for the inverted head-and-shoulders formation during the summer of 2024.On the other hand, the 97.73 support could quickly be tested on any substantial bearish headline. Further below, a relatively thin technical support comes in at 96.94 before looking at the lower levels of this new price range. These would be at 95.25 and 94.56, meaning fresh lows not seen since 2022.US Dollar Index: Daily Chart US-China Trade War FAQs What does “trade war” mean? Generally speaking, a trade war is an economic conflict between two or more countries due to extreme protectionism on one end. It implies the creation of trade barriers, such as tariffs, which result in counter-barriers, escalating import costs, and hence the cost of living. What is the US-China trade war? An economic conflict between the United States (US) and China began early in 2018, when President Donald Trump set trade barriers on China, claiming unfair commercial practices and intellectual property theft from the Asian giant. China took retaliatory action, imposing tariffs on multiple US goods, such as automobiles and soybeans. Tensions escalated until the two countries signed the US-China Phase One trade deal in January 2020. The agreement required structural reforms and other changes to China’s economic and trade regime and pretended to restore stability and trust between the two nations. However, the Coronavirus pandemic took the focus out of the conflict. Yet, it is worth mentioning that President Joe Biden, who took office after Trump, kept tariffs in place and even added some additional levies. Trade war 2.0 The return of Donald Trump to the White House as the 47th US President has sparked a fresh wave of tensions between the two countries. During the 2024 election campaign, Trump pledged to impose 60% tariffs on China once he returned to office, which he did on January 20, 2025. With Trump back, the US-China trade war is meant to resume where it was left, with tit-for-tat policies affecting the global economic landscape amid disruptions in global supply chains, resulting in a reduction in spending, particularly investment, and directly feeding into the Consumer Price Index inflation.

14:09 Pushing the USD’s limits – DBS
Donald Trump's tariff policies and protectionist agenda pose long-term risks to the US dollar, destabilizing financial markets and eroding trust in American institutions that have supported the dollar’s dominance, DBS' FX analyst Philip Wee notes.

Donald Trump's tariff policies and protectionist agenda pose long-term risks to the US dollar, destabilizing financial markets and eroding trust in American institutions that have supported the dollar’s dominance, DBS' FX analyst Philip Wee notes. Trump's tariffs threaten Dollar stability"The USD faces long-term downside risks due to Trump’s 'Make America Great Again' agenda, particularly his tariff proposals. These have shaken investor confidence in US economic strength, institutional trust, and geopolitical influence, threatening the USD’s dominance.""Trump’s tariffs are expected to slow US GDP growth and increase recession risks, as businesses delay investments and consumers face higher prices and job uncertainty. The trade war with China has also lowered global growth projections, further undermining economic stability." "Trump’s actions have eroded trust in US institutions, including the Federal Reserve’s independence, which may lead to increased political interference in monetary policy. Additionally, the administration's fiscal policy, including the push for tax cuts and deregulation, raises concerns about the sustainability of US economic foundations."

14:03 China’s copper stocks see record weekly drop – ING
The latest data from the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) shows that copper inventories in China fell significantly by 54,858 tonnes for a fifth consecutive week to 116,753 tonnes as of last Friday.

The latest data from the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) shows that copper inventories in China fell significantly by 54,858 tonnes for a fifth consecutive week to 116,753 tonnes as of last Friday. This was the biggest weekly decline on record, taking total inventories to their lowest since the end of January 2025. The decline was largely due to strong demand in the physical market, with spot prices trading at steep premiums. Last week, China pledged to 'fully prepare' emergency plans to defend against increasing external shocks and said it will take a patient approach in defending growth, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.Copper inventories in China plunge to lowest since January"In other metals, aluminium inventories fell by 11,871 tonnes for a fourth straight week to 178,597 tonnes (the lowest since the week ending on 31 January 2025), while zinc inventories declined by 7,207 tonnes (-12.3% week-on-week) for a sixth consecutive week to 51,378 tonnes (the lowest since 7 February 2025) at the end of last week. Meanwhile, lead and nickel stocks fell 20% WoW and 2.5% WoW, respectively.""The latest data from the China Gold Association shows that gold consumption in the country fell almost 6% year-on-year to 290.5t in the first quarter of 2025. The association further added that the decline was led by jewellery demand falling by 27% YoY to 134.5t in the first quarter, following higher domestic prices of the precious metal. On the supply side, China produced around 87.2t of gold in the period, up 1.5% YoY.""The latest positioning data from the CFTC shows that speculators increased their net longs of COMEX copper by 2,093 lots for the second consecutive week to 16,588 lots as of 22 April. In precious metals, managed money net longs in COMEX gold decreased by 11,197 lots for a fifth straight week to 125,722 lots over the last reporting week, the fewest bullish bets since the week ending 27 February 2024. Money managers’ interest in gold continues to remain muted following higher prices. In contrast, speculators increased net longs of silver by 2,845 lots for a second consecutive week to 26,174 lots as of Tuesday."

13:58 TRY: Reversal all over again – Commerzbank
The situation surrounding the Turkish lira is, once again, deteriorating, Commerzbank's FX analyst Tatha Ghose notes.

The situation surrounding the Turkish lira is, once again, deteriorating, Commerzbank's FX analyst Tatha Ghose notes. USD/TRY to drift up steadily over the coming quarters"After political turmoil broke out in March and the currency depreciated, the central bank (CBT) raised rates twice, and it had briefly appeared hopeful that the FX market might view it as a positive that the central bank was willing to raise rates, including the main repo rate. But, the policy move did not have much lasting positive impact after all: USD/TRY began to creep back up shortly after. We attributed this to the flip-flopping of monetary policy which probably dented the central bank’s credibility all over again.""Inflation expectations have begun to deteriorate again. This had been forewarned by Reuters and Bloomberg surveys earlier in March. Household inflation expectations now stand at 59.3% (April); the 1-year forward inflation expectation of market participants accelerated to 25.6%, while businesses are forecasting 41.7% inflation. This is not good news.""It now looks very much like the central bank and state banks are back at intervening to defend successive lines of defense, even while the exchange rate breaks each such level and moves to the next. This probably means that CBT is, once again, haemorrhaging reserves. We expect USD/TRY to drift up steadily over the coming quarters."

13:34 Pound Sterling gains against US Dollar amid uncertainty over US-China trade talks
The Pound Sterling (GBP) jumps higher to near 1.3350 against the US Dollar (USD) in Monday’s European session.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Pound Sterling rises to near 1.3350 against the US Dollar as the latter trades with caution due to uncertainty over the status of US-China trade talks.Beijing keeps denying Trump’s claim of having trade discussions with China’s Xi.The BoE is almost certain to cut interest rates next week.The Pound Sterling (GBP) jumps higher to near 1.3350 against the US Dollar (USD) in Monday’s European session. The GBP/USD pair gains as the US Dollar (USD) trades cautiously as investors try to seek clarity about whether the United States (US) and China are actively discussing the terms and conditions of a trade deal. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades inside Friday’s range around 99.50.On Monday, China stated clearly that there have been no trade discussions between President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump. China’s denial of recent talks between the two leaders comes after Trump has claimed that Xi has called him, refraining from commenting on the timing and topics discussed.Additionally, investors appear to be on the sidelines as they wait for a slew of US economic data releases this week., Traders will focus on a string of employment-related, economic, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and inflation data, which will influence market expectations for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook.According to the CME FedWatch tool, Fed officials are expected to leave interest rates unchanged in the range of 4.25%-4.50% in the policy meeting on May 6-7. Fed officials have signaled that monetary policy adjustments would be appropriate only if they get greater clarity on the economic outlook under the leadership of Trump.Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling gains against its peersThe Pound Sterling outperforms its peers at the start of the week despite firm expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.25% in the policy meeting on May 8. BoE dovish bets have escalated amid fears that the new tariff policy by the US will weaken economic growth in the United Kingdom (UK), and as inflation pressures seem to be subsiding. Last week, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey stressed the need to consider the trade war risk by the central bank. "We do have to take very seriously the risk to growth,” Bailey said on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) Spring Meetings in Washington. However, he ruled out the possibility of an economic recession. Additionally, BoE policymaker Megan Greene has also expressed concerns over “weak productivity” and “risks to the labor market” due to an increase in employers’ contributions to social security schemes, in a discussion with the Atlantic Council think tank on Friday. When asked about the impact of Trump’s tariff policy on UK inflation, Greene says she expects the potential trade war to be “net disinflationary” for the economy.Market participants seem to be pricing in that the trade war between the US and China will be limited, but the stand-off could hit European economies, given the low-cost competitive advantage of Beijing. China is expected to sell its products into European economies if the US shows reluctance to buy them. Such a scenario would be unfavorable for the UK business activity.Technical analysis: Pound Sterling climbs to near 1.3350The Pound Sterling rises to near 1.3350 against the US Dollar in Monday’s European session. The pair gains as the overall outlook remains bullish, with all short-to-long Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) sloping higher.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) rebounds to near 65.00 after cooling down to 60.00, indicating a resurgence in the upside trend.On the upside, the psychological level of 1.3500 will be a key hurdle for the pair. Looking down, the April 3 high around 1.3200 will act as a major support area. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

13:28 RUB: Not really dovish – Commerzbank
Russia’s central bank (CBR) left its key rate unchanged on Friday as had been unanimously expected.

Russia’s central bank (CBR) left its key rate unchanged on Friday as had been unanimously expected. There was supposed to be a more pronounced shift of language towards dovish – and indeed, some commentators interpreted the language as dovish because a key sentence on the possibility of a rate hike in coming meetings was dropped, Commerzbank's FX analyst Tatha Ghose notes. Rouble strength seen as temporary amid peace hopes"But, we do not view the updated language as more dovish at all: the updated projection of the key rate still retains a scenario where a rate hike occurs before the end of the year. In fact, no macroeconomic variable was revised significantly in the dovish direction. The forecast revision for the key rate does not qualify – for this variable, the forecast range was narrowed down symmetrically from both ends, which automatically means that the upper end was reduced slightly, but this does not count as a more dovish forecast. GDP and CPI projections were left unchanged.""At the same time, we do not interpret these signals to be hawkish either. Rather we stick with our impression from before the rate decision – that governor Elvira Nabiullina may still be concerned that inflation would re-accelerate if she were to signal looser policy in coming quarters. The CBR board remembers that they paused rate hikes last year and that turned out to be premature, which sparked an inflationary upswing, later forcing rate hikes to re-start. This may be the only reason CBR is not ready to put up a dovish face yet.""Our base-case is that CBR would keep the key rate unchanged at 21.0% for another quarter at least. Subsequently, rate cuts could begin. This shift in monetary policy will not impact the USD/RUB or EUR/RUB exchange rates much. The rouble is strong at the moment because of optimism that the war may come to an end and that some sanctions could be lifted as part of a peace deal. But, we are not very optimistic and forecast USD-RUB and EUR-RUB to drift gradually up over the coming year."

13:22 CAD: Canada goes to the polls – ING
Canada holds a general election today; here is our market guide to the vote, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

Canada holds a general election today; here is our market guide to the vote, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes. Markets expect limited CAD impact from liberal majority"The Liberals, led by PM Mark Carney, are ahead in the polls, with the Conservatives trailing by around 3.5 points. The betting market attaches over 80% probability of a Liberal win, and 60% of Liberals securing a parliament majority.""We assume a majority Liberal government is the market's baseline expected outcome, and would have a limited impact on the Canadian dollar. A hung government should trigger some pressure on the loonie, which could instead rally on a surprise Conservative win, as markets may see a smoother path for trade negotiations with the US."

13:18 USD/JPY: Rebound finds resistance – OCBC
Rebound in USD/JPY continued as the Bessent-Kato meeting saw no mention of FX levels. Pair was last at 143.43 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Rebound in USD/JPY continued as the Bessent-Kato meeting saw no mention of FX levels. Pair was last at 143.43 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. Rebound risks not ruled out"Kato said that he and Bessent also confirmed in their meeting that foreign exchange rates 'should be determined by the market and that excessive volatility can have a negative impact on economic and financial stability'." "The rebound in USD/JPY was in line with our earlier caution that if meeting yields no conclusive outcome with regards to FX, then USD/JPY may extend its run-up." "Daily momentum turned mild bullish while RSI rose. Rebound risks not ruled out. Resistance at 144.40/70 levels (21DMA, 23.6% fibo retracement of 2025 high to low), 145.40. Bias to lean against strength. Support at 141.60, 140.50 levels."

13:13 European gas prices slide to 9-month lows – ING
In gas, natural gas prices in Europe extended declines for a fourth straight session and fell around 4.9% day-on-day at one point in time to trade below EUR32/MWh (the lowest since July) on Friday, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

In gas, natural gas prices in Europe extended declines for a fourth straight session and fell around 4.9% day-on-day at one point in time to trade below EUR32/MWh (the lowest since July) on Friday, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.US natural gas stays weak amid mild weather"Prices came under pressure following the increased supply availability and lower demand in Asia. Europe is steadily expanding its gas storage, fuelling optimism about the timely availability of supplies for the upcoming heating season." "The latest GIE data shows that storage is more than 38% full as of 26 April, compared to a five-year average of 48.7% and the 61.7% levels seen at the same stage last year. Meanwhile, there are suggestions that shipments of liquefied natural gas have been arriving at higher levels than usual for the time of year amid weaker consumption in Asia.""Similarly, US natural gas prices hovered near the lowest level since November following the mild weather and ample inventories. There are suggestions that the weekly inventories will continue to report inflows, after witnessing a higher-than-expected increase last week, as weather remains unfavourable. Total stockpiles are nearly in line with the five-year average, and there is plenty of stored gas heading into summer."

13:11 USD: Positioning data shows a split in activity – ING
It's been a quiet start to the week in financial markets, with cross-market levels of volatility falling. There has not been too much tariff-related news over the weekend, although it does seem US consumers could soon start to feel the bite.

It's been a quiet start to the week in financial markets, with cross-market levels of volatility falling. There has not been too much tariff-related news over the weekend, although it does seem US consumers could soon start to feel the bite. Reports suggest that Chinese fashion retailer Shein is raising prices for US consumers by up to 300%, while logistics groups are starting to report a slump in US air freight and container imports, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.DXY to edge up to the 100.00/100.25 area"For FX markets, the focus this week will be on how much this tariff stress has hit real-world decision-making. Data highlights of the week include the first look at first-quarter GDP and the April jobs report on Friday. On GDP, consensus is around 0.4% quarter-on-quarter annualised, but the range of expectations is wide at +1% to -1%, depending on how economists feel the sharp front-loading of imports will be offset against some positive investment trends.""When it comes to FX positioning data, last week's data from Chicago seems to confirm anecdotal reports that fast money/hedge funds have been taking profits on dollar short positions, while the buy side continues to sell dollars. The latter may also have a big say in price action this week, should investment committees have recently taken decisions to cut USD exposure. Looking out for fixing flows, especially around the 4:00pm UK WMR fix.""The data calendar is exceptionally quiet today, but lower volatility levels slightly favour higher equity markets and perhaps an uptick in the dollar too. We think there is still room for DXY to edge up to the 100.00/100.25 area – but that may be enough for this week."

13:03 Inflation expectations among US consumers – Commerzbank
It is looking less and less likely that the dramatic rise in long-term inflation expectations among US consumers, as measured by the University of Michigan for the second month in a row, is actually a random outlier – a measurement error. Fed Chair Jay Powell recently dismissed it as such.

It is looking less and less likely that the dramatic rise in long-term inflation expectations among US consumers, as measured by the University of Michigan for the second month in a row, is actually a random outlier – a measurement error. Fed Chair Jay Powell recently dismissed it as such. On Friday, the results of the second round of April surveys were published, confirming what the first April survey and the two March surveys had already shown: US consumer inflation expectations have skyrocketed. In comparison, the rise in long-term inflation expectations during the post-corona inflation of 2021/22 was negligible, Commerzbank's Head of FX and Commodity Research Ulrich Leuchtmann notes. US consumer inflation expectations surge again"The point is that inflation expectations are a major cause of inflation. If they rise, the Fed will not be able to sit out the tariff-induced inflation shock. When inflation expectations are high – especially when long-term inflation expectations are high – such a shock will drive inflation ever higher if the Fed does nothing about it. The later the Fed intervenes, the more painful it will be.""Just last week, for example, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said that the US central bank should lower its key interest rate if US tariffs cause the unemployment rate to rise (in his opinion: after July). Hmm, it won't be that easy if inflation expectations rise at the same time. Waller and his colleagues will have to consider whether it is better to accept high unemployment now or risk even worse consequences later.""Market-based long-term inflation expectations do not show any corresponding effect. On the contrary, they fell slightly when the tariff chaos began. Unlike the consumers surveyed by the University of Michigan, the market clearly assumes that the Fed will continue to control inflation. Not every month, but in the long term. Given the latest presidential attacks on the Fed, I'm not so sure about that. At the very least, I don't think the consumers' view is implausible."

12:55 DXY: Technical rebound on the daily charts – OCBC
Dollar Index (DXY) held on to recent gains amid relative calm (no fresh tariff angst). While tariff uncertainties linger, recent developments pointed to signs of de-escalation. DXY was last at 99.62 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Dollar Index (DXY) held on to recent gains amid relative calm (no fresh tariff angst). While tariff uncertainties linger, recent developments pointed to signs of de-escalation. DXY was last at 99.62 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. Rebound risks likely"Last week, Trump hinted at significantly reducing tariffs on China and insisted that his administration was talking with China on trade (even as Beijing denied the existence of negotiations). Treasury secretary Bessent also indicated that the tariff standoff between US and China is 'unsustainable' and that tensions could de-escalate in the coming months." "We reiterate that the narrative of de-escalation in tariffs persisting for a while more can aid USD short covering (especially against safe haven proxies such as JPY and CHF), following the >10% decline (at one point) since Jan peak. The broad USD bounce may also see some regional FX come under pressure in the interim." "Bearish momentum on daily chart faded while RSI rose. Rebound risks likely. Resistance at 100.10, 100.80/101 levels (23.6% fibo retracement of 2025 peak to trough, 21 DMA). Support at 99.10, 98.60 levels."

12:51 Oil: Crude sees modest gains – ING
The oil market managed to trade marginally higher in the early morning today, with ICE Brent trading above $67/bbl, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

The oil market managed to trade marginally higher in the early morning today, with ICE Brent trading above $67/bbl, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.Oil markets edge higher amid trade talk uncertainty"Market participants are waiting for more clarity over the conflicting signals from the ongoing US-China trade talks. Meanwhile, the US and Iran talks of a deal over the nuclear programme continue to remain constructive, with both countries agreeing to meet again in Europe soon. OPEC+ is scheduled to meet on 5 May to discuss output plans for June.""The latest positioning data shows that speculators increased their net longs in ICE Brent by 29,432 lots to 128,383 lots as of last Tuesday. This was driven predominantly by the liquidation of short positions. There was also a small portion of new longs entering the market. Similarly, in NYMEX WTI, speculators boosted their net long by 36,132 lots for a second consecutive week to 147,331 lots over the reporting week, the highest bullish bets since the last week of January. This market continues to gauge the potential tariff impact on oil flows into the US.""The latest data from Baker Hughes shows that drilling activity in the US rose for the second consecutive week, marking the first back-to-back rise since February. The number of active US oil rigs rose by two over the week to 483 as of 25 April 2025. However, the oil rig count is still down by 23 compared to this time last year. The total rig count stood at 587 over the reporting week, up from 585 a week earlier, but 4.7% lower than the same time last year. Primary Vision’s frac spread count, which gives an idea of completion activity, increased by five over the week to 205."

12:47 EUR: The ECB is sounding pretty dovish – ING
The mood music coming from the European Central Bank (ECB) sounds pretty dovish, with some even happy to speculate over 50bp of rate cuts, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

The mood music coming from the European Central Bank (ECB) sounds pretty dovish, with some even happy to speculate over 50bp of rate cuts, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.The worst case for EUR/USD is probably 1.1250"Concerns over inflation seem to have largely evaporated, and tomorrow's release of the ECB survey on one and three-year inflation expectations may help. Consensus expects both of these numbers to drop. The ECB may also be worried about the strong euro, where the nominal trade-weighted is at record highs and is up 4% year-on-year. With the Rest of the World fighting over a smaller share of the global demand pie, currency strength is not what a big exporter wants right now.""This week also sees eurozone first quarter GDP data and the flash release of April CPI data on Friday, where core could inconveniently pick up to 2.5% YoY. As for EUR/USD, the euro does stand to be a major beneficiary from the flight from dollars, but there is still little evidence of foreign reserve managers leaving US Treasuries. And actually, the US 10-year swap spread (a measure of US sovereign credit risk) continues to be priced at less extreme levels.""This week will also see some high-profile earnings reports from the likes of Amazon, Microsoft, Apple and Meta. Their fallout on US equities will probably also continue the recent positive correlation between US equities and the dollar. Expect EUR/USD to continue trading around 1.1300-1.1400 for the time being. The worst case for EUR/USD is probably 1.1250, should US data surprise on the upside. 1.1500 is the risk, should any of this week's job releases suggest that tariff uncertainty has already triggered layoffs."

12:42 Tariff policy risks empty shelves in the US – Commerzbank
The US president continues to insist that China's president recently called him. The Chinese side denies this. And the US Treasury Secretary also refuses to confirm it. We have long since entered a world in which a Chinese ministerial official can be trusted more than the US President.

The US president continues to insist that China's president recently called him. The Chinese side denies this. And the US Treasury Secretary also refuses to confirm it. We have long since entered a world in which a Chinese ministerial official can be trusted more than the US President. It must therefore be assumed that no such conversation took place, but that this very fact makes the failure of US tariff policy so obvious that the US president cannot admit it, Commerzbank's Head of FX and Commodity Research Ulrich Leuchtmann notes. Irrational governance threatens Dollar's safe-haven status"On January 23, when the US President first threatened prohibitive tariffs, I wrote: 'If other countries did not send goods to the US every day, export companies in those countries would suffer considerable economic disadvantages. The Americans, however, would literally have to eat grass. It is vital for the US that goods that are not produced there, or not in sufficient quantities, are imported into the country.' This is precisely the scenario that now threatens: empty shelves due to prohibitive tariffs on imports from China.""The US government, with its legions of Ivy League graduates, should not be steering the country toward such a disaster. But it is precisely this rationality that the US government lacks. That is the real reason to doubt the safe-haven status of the dollar and US government bonds. It is not just the risk of inflation and recession that this policy is currently causing. Its style is such that exactly the same thing could happen again and again.""Just like the US government, China's leaders are likely to see the trade conflict as a conflict between state and social systems. Call me stubborn, but I consider it fundamentally dangerous to bet against China's willingness to suffer and make sacrifices. However, if neither side gives in, the US economy faces a severe negative supply shock, while the rest of the world faces a positive one. It seems obvious that this would be bad for the dollar. In my opinion, you can only be positive about the USD if you assume that the US president will cave in."

12:39 Gold takes step back on hopes of US-China trade talks
Gold price (XAU/USD) is easing at the start of the week, pushing the price to $3,280 at the time of writing on Monday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Gold price retraces over 1% on Monday as some relief ripples through markets. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said over the weekend that several deals are on the table with Asian countries. Gold eases with the idea that trade tariff tensions could ease further from here. Gold price (XAU/USD) is easing at the start of the week, pushing the price to $3,280 at the time of writing on Monday. The correction comes after a television interview at ABC with United States (US) Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Sunday, who mentioned that several big deals were on the table with Asian countries. “If there are 180 countries, there are 18 important trading partners, let's put China to the side, because that's a special negotiation, there's 17 important trading partners, and we have a process in place” said Bessent, and added “some of those are moving along very well, especially with the Asian countries.”Additionally, US Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said on Sunday that the Trump administration is having daily conversations with China over tariffs, per Reuters. Rollins noted ongoing talks between the two nations and that trade deals with other nations were “very close.” It appears that more easing in the tariff story could be underway, which takes the wind out of the Gold surge. However, Gold’s price decline could be limited as the Chinese Foreign Ministry reiterated on Monday that President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump did not have a call recently. “The US and China have not conducted negotiations or consultations on tariffs,” the Ministry noted.Looking ahead to the rest of the week, the focal point will be on the April Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) release on Friday. The US data as a whole will draw much more attention as a barometer to assess the next step of the Federal Reserve (Fed), with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) delivering its next interest rate decision on May 7. The US data last week already started to show signs of a shift, with, for example, Durable Goods revealing a substantial change in consumer sentiment. Daily digest market movers: Gold sector expanding with rallyToubani Resources, an African Gold miner capitalised at $61 million on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX), is trading up after securing commitments for a hefty $160 million debt package in a joint venture alongside a family office, Financial Review reports.Thailand’s bond market is on course for its best monthly inflows in more than three years, helped by interest-rate-cut bets and a stronger baht due to surging Gold prices, Bloomberg reports. China is stepping up scrutiny of Hong Kong billionaire Li Ka-shing’s plans to sell its Panama ports to a BlackRock Inc.-backed group, while US President Donald Trump sought preferential treatment for US ships in the waterway, adding to uncertainty over whether the blockbuster deal will proceed.Gold Price Technical Analysis: Not over yetAlthough Bullion is softening again this Monday, traders and analysts are still calling out that more upside is possible for the precious metal. Despite several trade deals being on the table and negotiations underway, US President Trump mentioned on Friday that a delay on the exemption of tariffs is not being discussed at this moment. Meanwhile, the rhetoric between China and the US is not showing signs of actual talks taking place after Chinese retailer Shein lifted its prices for the US markets by more than 100% to pass on the tariff import costs too the US customer. The daily Pivot Point at $3,318 is the first hurdle that needs to be recovered this Monday. From there, it is quite a stretch to $3,424 for hitting the R1 resistance. The all-time high at $3,500 will be a firm cap on the upside, which makes the R2 resistance at $3,529 a near-implausible level to reach this Monday. On the downside, the S1 support is providing a cushion at $3,266, roughly converging with last week’s low of $3,260. Further down, the technical pivotal floor near $3,245 (April 11 high) comes into play. Finally, the S2 support at $3,213 should prevent any further downturn to the pivotal level at $3,167 (April 3 high).XAU/USD: Daily Chart Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

12:30 Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Monday, according to FXStreet data.

11:59 WTI falls to near $62.50 due to potential Iranian crude, OPEC+ production increase
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price is trading lower at around $62.70 per barrel during the European hours on Monday. Crude Oil prices continue to decline as progress in US-Iran nuclear talks raises the prospect of Iranian crude re-entering the market.

11:32 EUR/USD trades sideways amid uncertainty over US-China trade talks
EUR/USD trades in a very tight range around 1.1350 at the start of the week. The major currency pair consolidates on ambiguity over trade discussions between the United States (US) and China.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD turns sideways around 1.1350 as investors look for fresh cues on trade relations between the US and China.The ECB is expected to cut interest rates again in the June meeting.ECB’s Knot sees demand shocks and disinflation due to Trump’s tariffs in the near term.EUR/USD trades in a very tight range around 1.1350 at the start of the week. The major currency pair consolidates on ambiguity over trade discussions between the United States (US) and China. Contradictory statements from Washington and Beijing over whether US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping have talked on trade terms have forced investors to stay on the sidelines.President Trump has stated that trade discussions between Washington and Beijing are going well. However, China has denied these remarks, saying there have been no “economic and trade negotiations between China and the US”. On Friday, a spokesperson from the Chinese embassy said, “China and the US are not having any consultation or negotiation on tariffs,” Reuters reported.After comments from Beijing, Trump stated in an interview with Time Magazine that China’s Xi Jinping had called him. “He’s called,” Trump said, and added, “I don’t think that’s a sign of weakness on his behalf.” Trump also clarified late Friday that Xi had called numerous times since he unveiled his tariff plan. "I don’t want to comment on that, but I’ve spoken to him numerous times," Trump said to reporters, Reuters reported.Meanwhile, US Treasury Scott Bessent has also not confirmed any trade talks between the presidents of the US and China. "I don’t know if President Trump has spoken with President Xi," Bessent said, ABC reported.During European trading hours on Monday, the US Dollar (USD) ticks higher, clinging to last week’s recovery move, which was driven by hopes of de-escalating the tariff war between the world’s two largest powerhouses. This week, the major trigger for the US Dollar will be a slew of US economic data, including the Nonfarm payrolls (NFP) on Friday.Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD trades sideways ahead of busy Eurozone data weekEUR/USD trades sideways as the Euro (EUR) trades cautiously ahead of the flash Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data of April and Q1 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from the Eurozone and its major nations, which will be published this week. The inflation and economic growth data will significantly influence market expectations for the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy outlook. According to market expectations, the Eurozone headline HICP would return to the ECB target of 2%, the slowest growth in price pressures since October 2024. In March, the inflation data rose by 2.2%. The Eurozone GDP growth is estimated to have grown at a steady pace of 0.2% QoQ in the first quarter. Moderate inflation growth would increase traders’ confidence that the ECB would cut interest rates again in the June policy meeting. Meanwhile, Reuters reported on Saturday that ECB policymakers are becoming increasingly confident about cutting interest rates in June as inflation continues to fall. Still, there is little to no appetite for a big move. However, the report has not highlighted the names of ECB officials who have guided the chances of further monetary policy expansion.ECB policymaker and Dutch central bank governor Klaas Knot stated in an interview with Dutch financial daily FD over the weekend that the June monetary policy will be more “complex” as long-term inflation risks have skewed on “both sides”. Knot signaled caution that the tariff policy by the US could lead to a decline in demand and disinflation in the near term. "In the short term, it’s 100% clear that the demand shock will dominate, so inflation will go down," Knot said.On the global front, the uncertainty over trade relations between the US and the Eurozone has also kept the Euro on the sidelines. European Union (EU) Economic Commissioner for Trade Valdis Dombrovskis has expressed concerns over having a deal with the US in the near term, while speaking with reporters on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) meetings in Washington, Reuters reported. "There’s a lot of work ahead to come to more concrete parameters and elements and areas of cooperation which would allow us to avoid the implementation of tariffs," Dombrovskis said.Technical Analysis: EUR/USD wobbles around 1.1350EUR/USD trades back-and-forth around 1.1350 in Monday’s European session. The outlook of the major currency pair remains bullish as the 20-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is sloping higher around 1.0885.The 14-week Relative Strength Index (RSI) climbs to near overbought levels above 70.00 in the weekly chart, which indicates a strong bullish momentum, but chances of some correction cannot be ruled out.Looking up, the psychological level of 1.1500 will be the major resistance for the pair. Conversely, the July 2023 high of 1.1276 will be a key support for the Euro bulls. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

11:29 USD/CAD Price Forecast: Tests nine-day EMA near 1.3900 resistance level
The USD/CAD pair gains ground for the second successive day, trading around 1.3890 during the European session on Monday. However, technical analysis on the daily chart indicates a prevailing bearish trend, with the pair continuing to move lower within a clearly defined descending channel.

11:01 Austria Purchasing Manager Index dipped from previous 46.9 to 46.6 in April
Austria Purchasing Manager Index dipped from previous 46.9 to 46.6 in April

11:01 NZD/USD depreciates to near 0.5950 due to improved US Dollar sentiment
The NZD/USD pair continues to weaken for the second consecutive session, trading near 0.5940 during Monday’s European session. The decline is largely driven by a strengthening US Dollar (USD) amid signs of easing tensions between the US and China.

10:37 AUD/JPY trades below 92.00, edges lower due to RBA rate cut expectations
AUD/JPY pauses its three-day winning streak, trading near 91.80 during early European hours on Monday.

10:32 China’s Foreign Ministry: President Xi and Trump did not have call recently
The Chinese Foreign Ministry reiterated on Monday that President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump did not have a call recently.

10:26 Forex Today: Markets remain calm to start week full of key data releases
Here is what you need to know on Monday, April 28:

10:06 EUR/INR: Indian Rupee cross rates mixed at the start of the European session
Indian Rupee (INR) crosses trade mixed at the start of Monday, according to FXStreet data. The Euro (EUR) to the Indian Rupee changes hands at 96.56, with the EUR/INR pair declining from its previous close at 97.03.

10:00 Spain Retail Sales (YoY): 3.6% (March)
Spain Retail Sales (YoY): 3.6% (March)

10:00 Spain Unemployment Survey registered at 11.36% above expectations (10.7%) in 1Q
Spain Unemployment Survey registered at 11.36% above expectations (10.7%) in 1Q

09:40 Palladium price: Rare metals mixed at the start of the European session
Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) trade mixed at the beginning of Monday, according to FXStreet data. Palladium (XPD) changes hands at $946.61 a troy ounce, with the XPD/USD pair easing from its previous close at $947.10.

Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) trade mixed at the beginning of Monday, according to FXStreet data. Palladium (XPD) changes hands at $946.61 a troy ounce, with the XPD/USD pair easing from its previous close at $947.10.In the meantime, Platinum (XPT) trades at $977.15 against the United States Dollar (USD) early in the European session, little changed after the XPT/USD pair settled at $977.15 at the previous close.

09:35 USD/CHF softens below 0.8300 amid US trade confusion
The USD/CHF pair attracts some sellers to near 0.8270 during the early European session on Monday. Trade-related uncertainties between the US and China and persistent geopolitical risks boost the safe-haven demand, benefiting the Swiss Franc (CHF).

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Uncertainty and tariff concerns boost the safe-haven flows, supporting the Swiss Franc. The Fed remains in a blackout period ahead of the FOMC meeting on May 7. The USD/CHF pair attracts some sellers to near 0.8270 during the early European session on Monday. Trade-related uncertainties between the US and China and persistent geopolitical risks boost the safe-haven demand, benefiting the Swiss Franc (CHF). The preliminary reading of the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter (Q1) and the April employment report will be the highlights later this week. US President Donald Trump said that there has been progress and he has talked with China’s President Xi Jinping. However, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Sunday that he did not know if Trump had talked to Xi Jinping. Bessent further stated that he had interactions with Chinese authorities last week but did not mention tariffs. Also, Beijing has denied that trade negotiations are taking place. The uncertainty surrounding trade policy between the world's two largest economies underpins the safe-haven currency like the CHF and acts as a headwind for USD/CHF. Traders raise their bets that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will resume its rate-cutting cycle in June and lower borrowing costs by one full percentage point in 2025. This, in turn, could drag the Greenback lower. Meanwhile, the Fed remains in blackout mode ahead of its Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on May 7. Traders will keep an eye on the preliminary US Q1 GDP report and April employment data this week, as it might offer some hints about the Fed's next policy decisions and the US economic outlook. The expectation for April is that the US economy will add 130,000 jobs and the Unemployment Rate will remain at 4.2%. If the reports show a stronger-than-expected outcome, this could lift the US Dollar (USD) against the CHF in the near term. Swiss Franc FAQs What key factors drive the Swiss Franc? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone. Why is the Swiss Franc considered a safe-haven currency? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in. How do decisions of the Swiss National Bank impact the Swiss Franc? The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF. How does economic data influence the value of the Swiss Franc? Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate. How does the Eurozone monetary policy affect the Swiss Franc? As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.

09:04 Crude Oil price today: WTI price bullish at European opening
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price advances on Monday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $63.19 per barrel, up from Friday’s close at $62.97.

09:02 Sweden Producer Price Index (MoM) fell from previous -0.1% to -3% in March
Sweden Producer Price Index (MoM) fell from previous -0.1% to -3% in March

09:00 Sweden Producer Price Index (YoY) declined to -0.3% in March from previous 3.4%
Sweden Producer Price Index (YoY) declined to -0.3% in March from previous 3.4%

08:54 ECB's Villeroy: We still have a margin for rate cuts in Europe
European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on Monday that the central bank still has “a margin for rate cuts in Europe.”

European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on Monday that the central bank still has “a margin for rate cuts in Europe.”Additional commentsWe are in a moment of great economic uncertainty.But does not see any extra inflation in the region.Does not anticipate a recession in France, Europe.Trump's policies, US protectionism are not working.

08:49 EUR/GBP moves away from multi-week low, lacks bullish conviction and remains below mid-0.8500s
The EUR/GBP cross attracts some buyers during the Asian session on Monday, though it lacks bullish conviction and remains close to a nearly three-week low around the 0.8510 region touched on Friday. Spot prices currently trade just below mid-0.8500s, up less than 0.10% for the day.

08:41 GBP/USD Price Forecast: Finds support near 1.3300 after breaking below ascending channel
The GBP/USD pair steadies around 1.3320 during Asian trading hours on Monday, after posting losses in the previous session. Technical analysis on the daily chart suggests a weakening bullish trend, as the pair breaks below its ascending channel pattern.

07:59 EUR/USD Price Forecast: Keeps bullish vibe, first upside target emerges near 1.1400
The EUR/USD pair trades on a flat note around 1.1360 during the Asian session on Monday. The Greenback steadies as traders are confused by mixed signals on US-China trade relations.

07:53 EUR/JPY slips below 163.00 as trade-related uncertainties benefit the safe-haven JPY
The EUR/JPY cross kicks off the new week on a weaker note and moves away from over a three-week top, around the 163.75 area touched on Friday. The downward trajectory drags spot prices back below the 163.00 mark during the Asian session, though it lacks bearish conviction.

07:37 US Dollar Index remains above 97.00 due to easing US-China tensions
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against six major currencies, continues to rise for the second consecutive day, trading near 99.60 during Asian hours on Monday. The US Dollar (USD) strengthens amid signs of easing tensions between the US and China.

07:35 India Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data
Gold prices fell in India on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

.fxs-related-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-related-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{text-decoration:none;color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover a{color:#e4871b}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover{text-decoration:none}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-related-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} Gold prices fell in India on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet. The price for Gold stood at 9,038.54 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, down compared with the INR 9,112.97 it cost on Friday. The price for Gold decreased to INR 105,423.70 per tola from INR 106,291.90 per tola on friday. Unit measure Gold Price in INR 1 Gram 9,038.54 10 Grams 90,385.39 Tola 105,423.70 Troy Ounce 281,130.20 2025 Gold Forecast Guide [PDF] Download your free copy of the 2025 Gold Forecast FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

07:34 Gold price languishes below $3,300; last week’s swing low holds the key for bulls
Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts fresh sellers at the start of a new week and drops to the $3,268-3,267 area, back closer to Friday's swing low, during the Asian session.

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Despite mixed signals from the US and China, investors remain hopeful over the potential de-escalation of trade tensions between the world's two largest economies. Apart from this, a fall in China's gold consumption in the first quarter of 2025 turned out to be a key factor subsiding demand for the traditional safe-haven bullion. Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) struggles to build on last week's strong recovery gains from a multi-year low – marking its first weekly gain since March. Prospects of Fed rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical risks could cushion the Gold price. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling before positioning for any meaningful corrective decline from the all-time peak touched last Tuesday. Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price is pressured by receding safe-haven demand; downside seems cushionedChina has exempted some U.S. imports from its 125% tariffs imposed earlier this month in response to the 145% US tariffs on Chinese imports. This comes on top of US President Donald Trump's reassertion that trade talks were underway with China and fuels hopes for a quick de-escalation of trade war between the world's two largest economies. China has yet to confirm any exemptions and denies ongoing tariff talks. Meanwhile, Trump's shifting announcements and global recession fears sustain demand for the safe-haven Gold price. The China Gold Association said on Monday that the country's gold consumption fell 5.96% year-on-year to 290.492 tonnes in the first quarter of 2025. Moreover, high prices continued to curb demand for gold jewelry, which slumped 26.85% year-on-year to 134.531 tonnes. Meanwhile, consumption of gold bars and coins surged 29.81% to 138.018 tonnes.The US Dollar preserves last week's recovery gains, though it lacks follow-through amid bets that the Federal Reserve will resume its rate-cutting cycle in June and lower borrowing costs by one full percentage point in 2025. Moreover, geopolitical risk remains in play amid the protracted Russia-Ukraine war, which limits losses for the precious metal.North Korea has confirmed for the first time that it has sent troops to fight in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Trump urged Russia on Sunday to stop its attacks in Ukraine while US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that the US might walk away from peace efforts if it does not see progress. This, in turn, warrants some caution for the XAU/USD bears. Investors this week will confront the release of key US macro data, including the JOLTS job openings report on Tuesday, US Personal Consumption Expenditures on Wednesday, and the non-farm payrolls (NFP) report on Friday. The data may provide more insight into the Fed's policy outlook and provide some meaningful impetus to the commodity. Gold price bears need to wait for some follow-through selling below $3,265-3,260 before placing fresh betsFrom a technical perspective, bearish traders need to wait for acceptance below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the latest leg up from the vicinity of mid-$2,900s, or the monthly swing low before placing fresh bets. Some follow-through selling below the $3,265-3,260 immediate support will confirm a breakdown and make the Gold price vulnerable to extend its recent corrective decline from the $3,500 psychological mark, or the all-time peak. The subsequent downfall could drag the precious metal to the 50% retracement level, around the $3,225 region, en route to the $3,200 mark. A convincing break below the latter will suggest that the commodity has topped out in the near term.On the flip side, attempted recovery back above the $3,300 mark might confront some resistance near the Asian session high, around the $3,331-3,332 region. Any further move up might still be seen as a selling opportunity and remain capped near the $3,366-3,368 supply zone. The latter should act as a key pivotal point, which if cleared decisively should allow the Gold price to reclaim the $3,400 mark. The momentum could extend further toward the $3,425-3,427 intermediate hurdle before bulls make a fresh attempt to conquer the $3,500 psychological mark. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

07:04 FX option expiries for Apr 28 NY cut
FX option expiries for Apr 28 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.

FX option expiries for Apr 28 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.EUR/USD: EUR amounts1.1120 967m1.1250 3.5b1.1400 625mUSD/JPY: USD amounts 140.00 2.1b147.50 813mUSD/CHF: USD amounts 0.8180 600mAUD/USD: AUD amounts0.6310 694m0.6390 499m0.6620 968mEUR/GBP: EUR amounts 0.8710 555m

06:33 China’s Vice Commerce Minister: Will accelerate reform to integrate domestic and foreign trade
China’s Vice Commerce Minister Sheng Qiuping said on Monday that the government “will accelerate reform to integrate domestic and foreign trade.”

06:21 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD breaks below $33.00 as safe-haven demand weakens
Silver price (XAG/USD) continues to lose ground for the second straight day, hovering around $32.80 per troy during Asian trading hours on Monday. The precious metal faces pressure as improving trade relations between the United States (US) and China diminish its safe-haven appeal.

06:01 NZD/USD weakens to near 0.5950 despite potential fresh stimulus measures from China
The NZD/USD pair softens to around 0.5950 during the Asian trading hours on Monday, pressured by the renewed US Dollar (USD) demand. Signs that global trade tensions between the United States and China may be easing provide some support to the Greenback.

05:59 WTI trades with modest losses around $62.70-$62.65 area, downside seems limited
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil prices struggle to capitalize on modest gains registered over the past two days and attract some sellers near the $63.55 area during the Asian session on Monday.

05:41 USD/CAD rises to near 1.3900 due to easing US-China tensions, lower Oil prices
USD/CAD is advancing for the second consecutive session, hovering around 1.3880 during Asian trading hours on Monday. The pair continues to strengthen as the US Dollar (USD) gains momentum, supported by signs of easing tensions between the US and China.

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The pair continues to strengthen as the US Dollar (USD) gains momentum, supported by signs of easing tensions between the US and China.On Friday, sources reported that China exempted certain US imports from its 125% tariffs, fueling optimism that the long-standing trade dispute between the world’s two largest economies could be nearing resolution. However, Reuters cited a Chinese embassy spokesperson who firmly denied any ongoing negotiations, stating, "China and the US are not having any consultation or negotiation on tariffs," and urged Washington to "stop creating confusion."The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against a basket of six major currencies, is also posting gains for the second straight day, trading near 99.70 at the time of writing. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve (Fed) remains in a blackout period ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for May 7.Adding to the complex picture, US Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins mentioned on Sunday, according to Reuters, that the Trump administration is engaged in daily discussions with China regarding tariffs. Rollins highlighted that not only are talks ongoing, but trade deals with other countries are also reportedly "very close."On the other hand, the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) faces pressure from declining crude Oil prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil prices continues to slide as progress in US-Iran nuclear negotiations raises the possibility of Iranian crude re-entering the market. Additionally, expectations that Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known as OPEC+ could increase output for a second consecutive month have further weighed on Oil prices. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

05:32 Japanese Yen bulls seem reluctant as bets for delayed BoJ rate hike offset trade uncertainties
The Japanese Yen (JPY) oscillates in a narrow range during the Asian session on Monday and stalls the recent pullback from a multi-month high touched against its American counterpart last week.

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US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent did not back President Donald Trump’s assertion that tariff talks with China were underway. This keeps a lid on the optimism over a quick resolution of trade tensions between the world's two largest economies and lends some support to the safe-haven JPY.Meanwhile, traders have pushed back expectations for an immediate interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) due to rising economic risks from US tariffs. However, signs of broadening inflation in Japan keep the door open for more BoJ rate hikes this year, which marks a big divergence in comparison to bets for more aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed). This keeps the US Dollar (USD) bulls on the defensive and also acts as a tailwind for the lower-yielding JPY. Japanese Yen could draw support from persistent trade-related uncertainties, bets for more BoJ rate hikes in 2025US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Sunday that he did not know if US President Donald Trump had talked to Chinese President Xi Jinping. Bessent added that he had interactions with his Chinese counterparts last week, but did not mention tariffs.Moreover, China has repeatedly denied that any trade talks are occurring with the US. This tempers hopes for a de-escalation of trade tensions between the world's two largest economies and could underpin the safe-haven Japanese Yen at the start of a new week. Japan's vice Finance Minister for International Affairs and top currency diplomat, Atsushi Mimura, denied a media report that Bessent had told Japanese Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato at a meeting last week that a weak US Dollar and a strong JPY are desirable.Meanwhile, Bessent said in an X post on Saturday that he had very constructive talks with his Japanese counterpart, fueling hopes for an eventual US-Japan trade deal. This turns out to be another factor acting as a tailwind for the JPY during the Asian session.Despite high inflation, the Bank of Japan is expected to move cautiously and pause further rate hikes amid concerns that the new US tariffs could shave off 0.5% of Japan's GDP. The BoJ is anticipated to leave rates unchanged at its policy meeting this week. However, inflation remains above the 2% target for the third straight year and big firms continue to offer bumper pay hikes this year. This gives the BoJ headroom to tighten its monetary policy in 2025, which supports prospects for a further JPY appreciation. In contrast, traders are betting the Federal Reserve will resume its rate-cutting cycle in June and lower borrowing costs by a full percentage point by the end of this year. This fails to assist the US Dollar to build on last week's bounce from a multi-year low.Meanwhile, North Korea confirmed on Monday that it has sent troops to fight for Russia in the war with Ukraine. Moreover, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the US might abandon its attempts to broker a deal if Russia and Ukraine do not make headway.This keeps geopolitical risk premium in play, which, along with the divergent BoJ-Fed policy expectations, suggests that the path of least resistance for the lower-yielding JPY is to the upside. USD/JPY might struggle to capitalize on last week’s recovery and face stiff resistance near the 144.35 regionA sustained move beyond the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart will be seen as a key trigger for the USD/JPY bulls against the backdrop of last week's breakout above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the March-April downfall. Oscillators on the 4-hour chart show positive traction, hinting at an intraday move up, but daily indicators have yet to confirm a positive bias and caution is still warranted. Hence, any subsequent strength beyond the 144.00 mark might confront stiff resistance near the 144.35 region, or the 38.2% Fibo. level. Some follow-through buying, however, should pave the way for some meaningful upside in the near term.On the flip side, the 143.25 area, closely followed by the 143.00 round figure, now seems to protect the immediate downside. Any further slide might continue to attract some dip-buyers near the 142.60 area or the 23.6% Fibo. This should help limit the downside near the 142.25 support zone. However, a convincing break below the latter, leading to a subsequent break through the 142.00 round figure, could make the USD/JPY pair vulnerable to weaken further towards the mid-141.00s en route to the 141.10-141.00 region. The downward trajectory could extend further towards intermediate support near the 140.50 area and expose the multi-month low – levels below the 140.00 psychological mark touched last week. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

05:29 USD/INR holds steady amid India-Pakistan tensions
The Indian Rupee (INR) flat lines on Monday. Rising tension with Pakistan could trigger a risk-off sentiment among traders, which might drag the Indian currency lower.

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US President Donald Trump said on Friday that the US will be reasonable on tariffs, adding that markets are adjusting to tariff policy. The University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment in April rose to 52.2 from 50.8 in the previous reading, better than the estimation of 50.8. Consumers’ inflation expectations for one year eased to 6.5% in April versus 6.7% prior. USD/INR’s outlook remains bearish below the 100-day EMAThe Indian Rupee trades flat on the day. The negative outlook of the USD/INR pair remains intact, characterized by the price holding below the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily chart. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands below the midline near 41.00, supporting the sellers in the near term. The lower limit of the descending trend channel at 84.80 acts as an initial support level for USD/INR. Extended losses could see a drop to 84.22, the low of November 25, 2024. Further south, the additional downside filter to watch is 84.08, the low of November 6, 2024.In the bullish case, the first upside barrier is located at 85.80, the 100-day EMA. If the pair breaks above this level, it could draw in more bullish pressure and push the pair toward 86.35, the upper boundary of the trend channel. Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.

05:25 PBOC Deputy Governor: Impact on China’s forex assets from volatility in US bond markets is limited
The People’s Bank of China ()PBOC) Deputy Governor said in a news conference that the “impact on China’s forex assets from volatility in US bond markets is limited.”

04:54 Australian Dollar loses ground due to rising expectations of RBA’s rate cut in May
The Australian Dollar (AUD) extends loses for the second successive session on Monday. The AUD/USD pair is under pressure as the US Dollar (USD) strengthens amid signs of easing tensions between the US and China.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Australian Dollar remains under pressure as the US Dollar strengthens, supported by signs of easing US-China tensions.China’s move to exempt certain US imports from its 125% tariffs has sparked some optimism for better trade relations.The Federal Reserve is in its blackout period ahead of the May 7 Federal Open Market Committee meeting.The Australian Dollar (AUD) extends loses for the second successive session on Monday. The AUD/USD pair is under pressure as the US Dollar (USD) strengthens amid signs of easing tensions between the US and China.China exempted certain US imports from its 125% tariffs on Friday, according to business sources. The move has fueled hopes that the prolonged trade war between the world's two largest economies might be drawing to a close.However, Reuters cited a Chinese embassy spokesperson on Friday, who firmly denied any current negotiations with the US, stating, "China and the US are not having any consultation or negotiation on tariffs." The spokesperson urged Washington to "stop creating confusion."The AUD also faces headwinds as expectations are mounting that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will deliver another 25-basis-point rate cut in May, as economic uncertainties deepen and concerns over the global trade environment intensify.Australian Dollar falls as US Dollar gains ground amid easing US-China concernsThe US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD against six major currencies, gains ground for the second successive day, trading near 99.60 at the time of writing. The Federal Reserve (Fed) is in blackout mode ahead of its May 7 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.US Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said on Sunday, as reported by Reuters, that the Trump administration is holding daily discussions with China regarding tariffs. Rollins emphasized that talks were ongoing and that trade agreements with other countries were also "very close."Michael Hart, President of the American Chamber of Commerce in China, remarked that it's encouraging to see the US and China reviewing tariffs. Hart noted that while exclusion lists for specific categories are reportedly in the works, no official announcements or policies have been released yet. Both China’s Ministry of Commerce and the US Department of Commerce are currently gathering input on the matter.The US Department of Labor (DOL) reported on Thursday that initial applications for unemployment benefits rose for the week ending April 19. Initial Jobless Claims increased to 222,000, slightly above expectations and up from the previous week’s revised figure of 216,000. Meanwhile, Continuing Jobless Claims declined by 37,000, falling to 1.841 million for the week ending April 12.US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent acknowledged on Wednesday that current tariffs—145% on Chinese goods and 125% on US goods—are unsustainable and must be lowered for meaningful dialogue to begin.National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, President Trump's chief economic adviser, stated that the US Trade Representative (USTR) has 14 meetings scheduled with foreign trade ministers. Hassett also noted that 18 written proposals have been received from these ministers. According to Hassett, China remains open to negotiations.Westpac forecasted on Thursday that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) would lower interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming May 20 meeting. The RBA has adopted a data-driven approach in recent quarters, making it difficult to predict its actions beyond the next meeting with confidence.A Beijing official reiterated on Thursday that no "economic and trade negotiations" with US were underway and stressed that the US must "completely cancel all unilateral tariff measures" to pave the way for talks.China's Finance Ministry stated on Friday that global economic growth remains sluggish, with tariffs and trade wars continuing to undermine economic and financial stability. The ministry urged all parties to enhance the international economic and financial system through stronger multilateral cooperation, per Reuters.Australian Dollar remains below 0.6400; resistance appears near nine-day EMAThe AUD/USD pair is trading around 0.6390 on Monday, with the daily chart showing a bullish bias. The pair continues to hold above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains firmly above the 50 level, suggesting sustained upward momentum.On the upside, immediate resistance is seen at the recent four-month high of 0.6439, posted on April 22. A decisive break above this level could pave the way for a rally toward the five-month high at 0.6515.Initial support is aligned at the nine-day EMA of 0.6367, followed by stronger support near the 50-day EMA at 0.6305. A sustained drop below these levels would weaken the bullish setup and could lead to deeper losses, with the March 2020 low near 0.5914 coming into view.AUD/USD: Daily Chart Australian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the weakest against the Swiss Franc. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.08% 0.18% 0.01% 0.09% 0.24% 0.12% -0.16% EUR -0.08% 0.04% -0.08% -0.02% 0.06% 0.03% -0.26% GBP -0.18% -0.04% -0.13% -0.04% 0.00% -0.02% -0.29% JPY -0.01% 0.08% 0.13% 0.09% 0.27% -1.30% 0.09% CAD -0.09% 0.02% 0.04% -0.09% 0.04% 0.04% -0.23% AUD -0.24% -0.06% -0.01% -0.27% -0.04% -0.03% -0.32% NZD -0.12% -0.03% 0.02% 1.30% -0.04% 0.03% -0.28% CHF 0.16% 0.26% 0.29% -0.09% 0.23% 0.32% 0.28% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

04:48 Japan’s Top FX Diplomat Mimura: US side did not touch upon exchange-rate targets in talks
Atsushi Mimura, Japan’s Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs and top foreign exchange official, said early Monday that it is “completely untrue about the media report that US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said a stronger Yen is preferable.”

04:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.2043 vs. 7.2066 previous
On Monday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.2043 as compared to Friday's fix of 7.2066 and 7.2828 Reuters estimate.

03:54 EUR/USD remains subdued around 1.1350 due to signs of easing US-China tensions
EUR/USD continues to weaken for a second consecutive session, trading around 1.1360 during Asian hours on Monday. The pair is under pressure as the US Dollar (USD) strengthens amid signs of easing tensions between the US and China.

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The pair is under pressure as the US Dollar (USD) strengthens amid signs of easing tensions between the US and China.On Friday, China exempted certain US imports from its 125% tariffs, according to business sources. The move has fueled hopes that the prolonged trade war between the world's two largest economies might be drawing to a close.Adding to the sentiment, US Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said on Sunday, as reported by Reuters, that the Trump administration is holding daily discussions with China regarding tariffs. Rollins emphasized that talks were ongoing and that trade agreements with other countries were also "very close."Despite these comments, Reuters cited a Chinese embassy spokesperson on Friday, who firmly denied any current negotiations with the US, stating, "China and the US are not having any consultation or negotiation on tariffs." The spokesperson urged Washington to "stop creating confusion." Additionally, a Beijing official reiterated on Thursday that no "economic and trade negotiations" were underway and stressed that the US must "completely cancel all unilateral tariff measures" to pave the way for talks.Meanwhile, dovish expectations surrounding the European Central Bank (ECB) are mounting, fueled by growing concerns that Eurozone inflation may fall short of the ECB's 2% target. Last Thursday, ECB policymaker and Finnish central bank governor Olli Rehn warned of downside risks to inflation, noting, "It is quite possible that the projections for medium-term inflation under the current circumstances may well be below the 2% target." Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

03:53 GBP/USD consolidates around 1.3300 mark; downside potential seems limited
The GBP/USD pair kicks off the new week on a subdued note and oscillates in a narrow band around the 1.3300 round-figure mark during the Asian session.

03:52 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD edges lower to near $3,300 as US-China trade tensions ease
The Gold price (XAU/USD) drifts lower to around $3,310 during the early Asian session on Monday. The precious metal retreats after hitting its record high last week amid signs that global trade tensions may be easing.

03:13 US Agriculture Secretary says talking to 100 countries every day on trade, including China
US Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said on Sunday that the Trump administration is having daily conversations with China over tariffs, per Reuters. Rollins noted that there were ongoing talks between the two nations and that trade deals with other nations were “very close.”

03:03 China vows to promote growth, employment
China will hold a press conference about policies and measures on stabilizing employment, ensuring stable growth, and promoting high-quality development on Monday, per Bloomberg.

02:40 US President Donald Trump urges Russia to stop attacks on Ukraine
US President Donald Trump urged Russia on Sunday to stop its attacks in Ukraine, while his top diplomat said the US might walk away from peace efforts if it does not see progress, per Reuters.

02:06 AUD/USD holds below 0.6400 amid signs of easing US-China tensions
The AUD/USD pair trades in negative territory near 0.6390 during the early Asian session on Monday. The US Dollar (USD) edges higher against the Aussie amid signs of easing US-China tensions.

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16:40 ECB's Rehn: We should not rule out rate cuts below neutral rate European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Olli Rehn said on Monday that underlying inflationary pressures in the Eurozone are easing, per Reuters.

15:10 US Treasury Sec. Bessent: All aspects of government are in contact with China In an interview with CNBC on Monday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that the all aspects of the government are in contact with China, per Reuters.

15:00 Mexico Trade Balance, $ climbed from previous $2.212B to $3.442B in March Mexico Trade Balance, $ climbed from previous $2.212B to $3.442B in March

15:00 Mexico Jobless Rate s.a: 2.6% (March) vs previous 2.7% Mexico Jobless Rate s.a: 2.6% (March) vs previous 2.7%

15:00 Mexico Trade Balance s/a, $ dipped from previous $1.269B to $1.035B in March Mexico Trade Balance s/a, $ dipped from previous $1.269B to $1.035B in March

15:00 Mexico Jobless Rate dipped from previous 2.5% to 2.2% in March Mexico Jobless Rate dipped from previous 2.5% to 2.2% in March

14:47 JPY is up slightly – Scotiabank Japanese Yen (JPY) is entering Monday’s NA session with a marginal gain against the US Dollar (USD), Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

14:45 GBP outperforming with marginal gain – Scotiabank Pound Sterling (GBP) is up a modest 0.2% in quiet trade, outperforming most of the G10 currencies heading into Monday’s NA session, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

14:43 EUR soft in quiet trade – Scotiabank Euro (EUR) is soft, entering Monday’s session with a marginal decline against the US Dollar (USD) and underperforming most of the G10 currencies in quiet trade, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

14:42 CAD holds near fair value as markets await election outcome – Scotiabank The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is all but unchanged on the session as the country goes to the polls.

14:38 USD narrowly mixed in quiet trade – Scotiabank Trading is off to a quiet start in NFP week. Asian and European stocks are mixed to a little firmer but US equity futures are down slightly, while bonds are a tad softer. The US Dollar (USD) itself is mixed.

14:17 JPY: Room for further JPY strength even if BoJ expresses more caution – MUFG The tentative improvement in global investor risk sentiment contributed to the underperformance of the yen over the past week alongside the other traditional safe haven currency of the Swiss franc.

14:14 USD: Will the nonfarm payrolls report support expectations for Fed cuts? – MUFG The major currency rates have remained relatively stable overnight following on from last week’s modest rebound for the US dollar.

14:13 US Dollar steadies near pivotal breakout level ahead of data-packed week The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, trades broadly flat on Monday just below the 100.00-marker.

14:09 Pushing the USD’s limits – DBS Donald Trump's tariff policies and protectionist agenda pose long-term risks to the US dollar, destabilizing financial markets and eroding trust in American institutions that have supported the dollar’s dominance, DBS' FX analyst Philip Wee notes.

14:03 China’s copper stocks see record weekly drop – ING The latest data from the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) shows that copper inventories in China fell significantly by 54,858 tonnes for a fifth consecutive week to 116,753 tonnes as of last Friday.

13:58 TRY: Reversal all over again – Commerzbank The situation surrounding the Turkish lira is, once again, deteriorating, Commerzbank's FX analyst Tatha Ghose notes.

13:34 Pound Sterling gains against US Dollar amid uncertainty over US-China trade talks The Pound Sterling (GBP) jumps higher to near 1.3350 against the US Dollar (USD) in Monday’s European session.

13:28 RUB: Not really dovish – Commerzbank Russia’s central bank (CBR) left its key rate unchanged on Friday as had been unanimously expected.

13:22 CAD: Canada goes to the polls – ING Canada holds a general election today; here is our market guide to the vote, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

13:18 USD/JPY: Rebound finds resistance – OCBC Rebound in USD/JPY continued as the Bessent-Kato meeting saw no mention of FX levels. Pair was last at 143.43 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

12:51 Oil: Crude sees modest gains – ING The oil market managed to trade marginally higher in the early morning today, with ICE Brent trading above $67/bbl, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

12:47 EUR: The ECB is sounding pretty dovish – ING The mood music coming from the European Central Bank (ECB) sounds pretty dovish, with some even happy to speculate over 50bp of rate cuts, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

12:39 Gold takes step back on hopes of US-China trade talks Gold price (XAU/USD) is easing at the start of the week, pushing the price to $3,280 at the time of writing on Monday.

12:30 Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Monday, according to FXStreet data.

11:32 EUR/USD trades sideways amid uncertainty over US-China trade talks EUR/USD trades in a very tight range around 1.1350 at the start of the week. The major currency pair consolidates on ambiguity over trade discussions between the United States (US) and China.

11:01 Austria Purchasing Manager Index dipped from previous 46.9 to 46.6 in April Austria Purchasing Manager Index dipped from previous 46.9 to 46.6 in April

10:37 AUD/JPY trades below 92.00, edges lower due to RBA rate cut expectations AUD/JPY pauses its three-day winning streak, trading near 91.80 during early European hours on Monday.

10:32 China’s Foreign Ministry: President Xi and Trump did not have call recently The Chinese Foreign Ministry reiterated on Monday that President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump did not have a call recently.

10:26 Forex Today: Markets remain calm to start week full of key data releases Here is what you need to know on Monday, April 28:

10:06 EUR/INR: Indian Rupee cross rates mixed at the start of the European session Indian Rupee (INR) crosses trade mixed at the start of Monday, according to FXStreet data. The Euro (EUR) to the Indian Rupee changes hands at 96.56, with the EUR/INR pair declining from its previous close at 97.03.

10:00 Spain Retail Sales (YoY): 3.6% (March) Spain Retail Sales (YoY): 3.6% (March)

10:00 Spain Unemployment Survey registered at 11.36% above expectations (10.7%) in 1Q Spain Unemployment Survey registered at 11.36% above expectations (10.7%) in 1Q

09:40 Palladium price: Rare metals mixed at the start of the European session Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) trade mixed at the beginning of Monday, according to FXStreet data. Palladium (XPD) changes hands at $946.61 a troy ounce, with the XPD/USD pair easing from its previous close at $947.10.

09:04 Crude Oil price today: WTI price bullish at European opening West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price advances on Monday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $63.19 per barrel, up from Friday’s close at $62.97.

09:02 Sweden Producer Price Index (MoM) fell from previous -0.1% to -3% in March Sweden Producer Price Index (MoM) fell from previous -0.1% to -3% in March

09:00 Sweden Producer Price Index (YoY) declined to -0.3% in March from previous 3.4% Sweden Producer Price Index (YoY) declined to -0.3% in March from previous 3.4%

08:54 ECB's Villeroy: We still have a margin for rate cuts in Europe European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on Monday that the central bank still has “a margin for rate cuts in Europe.”

07:59 EUR/USD Price Forecast: Keeps bullish vibe, first upside target emerges near 1.1400 The EUR/USD pair trades on a flat note around 1.1360 during the Asian session on Monday. The Greenback steadies as traders are confused by mixed signals on US-China trade relations.

07:35 India Gold price today: Gold falls, according to FXStreet data Gold prices fell in India on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

07:34 Gold price languishes below $3,300; last week’s swing low holds the key for bulls Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts fresh sellers at the start of a new week and drops to the $3,268-3,267 area, back closer to Friday's swing low, during the Asian session.

07:04 FX option expiries for Apr 28 NY cut FX option expiries for Apr 28 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.

06:33 China’s Vice Commerce Minister: Will accelerate reform to integrate domestic and foreign trade China’s Vice Commerce Minister Sheng Qiuping said on Monday that the government “will accelerate reform to integrate domestic and foreign trade.”

05:59 WTI trades with modest losses around $62.70-$62.65 area, downside seems limited West Texas Intermediate (WTI) US Crude Oil prices struggle to capitalize on modest gains registered over the past two days and attract some sellers near the $63.55 area during the Asian session on Monday.

05:32 Japanese Yen bulls seem reluctant as bets for delayed BoJ rate hike offset trade uncertainties The Japanese Yen (JPY) oscillates in a narrow range during the Asian session on Monday and stalls the recent pullback from a multi-month high touched against its American counterpart last week.

05:29 USD/INR holds steady amid India-Pakistan tensions The Indian Rupee (INR) flat lines on Monday. Rising tension with Pakistan could trigger a risk-off sentiment among traders, which might drag the Indian currency lower.

05:25 PBOC Deputy Governor: Impact on China’s forex assets from volatility in US bond markets is limited The People’s Bank of China ()PBOC) Deputy Governor said in a news conference that the “impact on China’s forex assets from volatility in US bond markets is limited.”

04:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.2043 vs. 7.2066 previous On Monday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.2043 as compared to Friday's fix of 7.2066 and 7.2828 Reuters estimate.

03:53 GBP/USD consolidates around 1.3300 mark; downside potential seems limited The GBP/USD pair kicks off the new week on a subdued note and oscillates in a narrow band around the 1.3300 round-figure mark during the Asian session.

03:03 China vows to promote growth, employment China will hold a press conference about policies and measures on stabilizing employment, ensuring stable growth, and promoting high-quality development on Monday, per Bloomberg.

02:40 US President Donald Trump urges Russia to stop attacks on Ukraine US President Donald Trump urged Russia on Sunday to stop its attacks in Ukraine, while his top diplomat said the US might walk away from peace efforts if it does not see progress, per Reuters.

02:06 AUD/USD holds below 0.6400 amid signs of easing US-China tensions The AUD/USD pair trades in negative territory near 0.6390 during the early Asian session on Monday. The US Dollar (USD) edges higher against the Aussie amid signs of easing US-China tensions.

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