ไทม์ไลน์ข่าวสาร forex

ศุกร์, มีนาคม 21, 2025

The Indian Rupee (INR) remains stable against the US Dollar (USD) during the Asian trading hours on Friday, with USD/INR holding near a seven-week low of 86.20, recorded on Thursday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Indian Rupee remains stable, with USD/INR hovering near a seven-week low of 86.20. The INR faces potential headwinds from rising crude Oil prices amid ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.The US Dollar strengthens as risk aversion rises due to concerns over tariff policies.The Indian Rupee (INR) remains stable against the US Dollar (USD) during the Asian trading hours on Friday, with USD/INR holding near a seven-week low of 86.20, recorded on Thursday. However, further downside of the pair may be limited as the Greenback gains strength amid rising risk aversion driven by concerns over US tariff policies. The INR also faces potential headwinds from rising crude Oil prices amid ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, as India, the world’s third-largest Oil consumer, remains sensitive to energy costs. Israel has launched a new ground operation in Gaza, breaking a two-month ceasefire, while the US continues airstrikes against Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen. Indian equities advanced on Thursday, buoyed by expectations that higher liquidity and relaxed financial conditions will support economic growth. Tech stocks led the rally, mirroring gains in US markets, while banking stocks maintained their upward momentum this month, supported by slower inflation, which has allowed the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to adopt a more accommodative stance toward the Indian Rupee. The RBI recently implemented its first rate cut in nearly five years, aligning with market expectations. With liquidity concerns persisting in the Indian financial system, the central bank is expected to continue easing to support growth. India’s GDP expanded by 6.5% in the current financial year, down from 8.2% in the previous period. Indian Rupee could appreciate as US Dollar struggles amid declining bond yields The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD against six major currencies, is trading higher near 103.90. However, the US Dollar may face challenges as US bond yields decline, with investors seeking safety in Treasuries amid economic uncertainties. Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell downplayed the inflationary impact of tariffs, calling it temporary, but acknowledged the challenges in assessing broader effects. While recession risks have risen, Powell suggested they remain relatively low for now. US Initial Jobless Claims increased to 223K for the week ending March 15, slightly missing estimates of 224K and exceeding the previous week's revised figure of 221K (from 220K). Additionally, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey for March eased to 12.5 MoM, down from February’s 18.1. This marked the second consecutive monthly decline, though the drop was less severe than the expected 8.5. US President Donald Trump urged the Federal Reserve (Fed) to lower interest rates, citing the economic impact of tariffs. Trump posted on the Truth Social platform that the Fed would be better off cutting interest rates as US tariffs begin to take effect in the economy. He added, "Do the right thing," "April 2nd is Liberation Day in America!" The Reserve Bank of India has likely been "opportunistically" absorbing USD inflows in recent sessions, possibly to rebuild foreign exchange reserves used to support the INR in recent months, according to reports. The yield on the 10-year Indian G-Sec dropped to 6.68%, its lowest level in three years, as expectations of lower interest rates grew. The RBI recently implemented its first rate cut in over four years, with lower-than-expected inflation in February reinforcing prospects for further easing this year. Technical Analysis: USD/INR could test nine-week lows near 86.00 The Indian Rupee (INR) remains stable, with the USD/INR pair trading around 86.30 during Asian hours on Friday. Technical analysis of the daily chart suggests a strengthening bearish bias, as the pair remains within a descending channel pattern. Additionally, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned slightly above the 30 mark, reinforcing the bearish outlook. A break below 30 could indicate an oversold condition, potentially triggering an upward correction. The USD/INR pair could find immediate support at a nine-week low of 86.14 level, recorded on January 13, followed by the lower boundary of the descending channel near the psychological level of 86.00 level. On the upside, the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 86.57 could act as the initial barrier. A break above this level could improve the short-term price momentum and support the USD/INR pair to explore the area around the descending channel’s upper boundary near the 87.10 level. USD/INR: Daily Chart Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.  

The GBP/USD pair lacks any firm intraday direction on Friday and oscillates in a narrow trading band, around the 1.2960 area during the Asian session.

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Spot prices, however, remain close to the highest since early November – levels beyond the 1.3000 psychological mark touched on Thursday – and remain at the mercy of the US Dollar (USD) price dynamics.  The Federal Reserve (Fed) maintained its forecast for two 25 basis points rate cuts in 2025 at the end of March policy meeting on Wednesday and gave a bump higher to its inflation projection. Adding to this, the uncertainty surrounding US President Donald Trump's trade tariffs and escalating geopolitical tensions underpin the safe-haven Greenback and turns out to be a key factor acting as a headwind for the GBP/USD pair.  The USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, looks to build on a modest recovery from a multi-month low touched earlier this week, though any meaningful appreciation still seems elusive. Investors remain worried about a tariff-driven slowdown in the US economic activity, which, in turn, might force the Fed to resume its rate-cutting cycle sooner than expected.  The markets now currently pricing in the possibility that the Fed would lower borrowing costs in June, July, and October. In contrast, the Bank of England (BoE) warns against assumptions for cuts and also increased its forecast for a peak in inflation this year. This suggests that the UK central bank will lower borrowing costs more slowly than other central banks, including the Fed, lending support to the GBP/USD pair.  There isn't any relevant market-moving economic data due for release on Friday, either from the UK or the US. Moreover, the aforementioned fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices is to the upside. Hence, any subsequent slide could be seen as a buying opportunity and is likely to remain limited. Nevertheless, spot prices remain on track to end in the green for the third straight week. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.  

The Japanese Yen (JPY) edges lower during the Asian session on Friday after data released from Japan showed that the annual National Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowed in February.

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This, along with a modest US Dollar (USD) uptick, assists the USD/JPY pair to build on the overnight bounce from the weekly low and move back above the 149.00 mark in the last hour. However, bets that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue raising interest rates, amid expectations that strong wage growth could boost consumer spending and contribute to rising inflation, should limit JPY losses. Furthermore, persistent uncertainty over US President Donald Trump's aggressive trade policies and their impact on the global economy, along with geopolitical risks, should act as a tailwind for the safe-haven JPY. Meanwhile, bets that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will resume its rate-cutting cycle soon amid a tariff-driven slowdown, which might hold back the USD bulls from placing aggressive bets, mark a big divergence in comparison to hawkish BoJ expectations. This might further contribute to limiting losses for the lower-yielding JPY and capping the upside for the USD/JPY pair.  Japanese Yen bulls have the upper hand amid rising BoJ rate hike bets Data released earlier this Friday showed that Japan's National Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.7% YoY in February, slower than 4% in the previous month. Meanwhile, the nationwide core CPI, which excludes fresh food items, climbed 3% during the reported month from a year earlier compared to 3.2% in January, though the reading was slightly above the 2.9% expected.  Meanwhile, the preliminary results from Japan's annual spring labor negotiations revealed that firms largely agreed to union demands for strong wage growth for the third consecutive year. This, in turn, is anticipated to boost consumer spending and contribute to broadening inflationary pressures in Japan, giving the Bank of Japan headroom to keep hiking rates. Moreover, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda said earlier this week that the Shunto result is largely in line with our January view and the central bank wants to conduct policies before it is too late. Ueda added that achieving a 2% inflation target is important for long-term credibility and the BoJ will keep adjusting the degree of easing if the economic, price outlook is to be realized. In contrast, the Federal Reserve signaled that it would deliver two 25 basis points rate cuts by the end of this year. Moreover, the central bank revised its growth outlook downward amid the uncertainty over the impact of the Trump administration's trade policies. Adding to this, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that tariffs are likely to dampen economic growth. Both Russia and Ukraine stepped up aerial attacks on Thursday. In fact, Ukraine struck Russia’s Engels airbase, which hosts Russian strategic bombers used to attack Ukraine, in the Saratov region with attack drones, causing a fire and explosions in the area. Furthermore, Ukraine’s air force said Thursday that Russia had launched 171 drones over its territory. Israel resumed heavy strikes across Gaza early this week, breaking the ceasefire with Hamas that was in place since late January. In response, Hamas fired three rockets at Israel on Thursday, without causing casualties. The development raises the risk of a further escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and underpins the safe-haven Japanese Yen.  The US Dollar looks to build on its modest recovery move from a multi-month low touched earlier this week and further lends some support to the USD/JPY pair. However, the divergent BoJ-Fed policy expectations should keep a lid on any meaningful gains for the currency pair in the absence of any relevant market-moving economic releases from the US on Friday.  USD/JPY bulls might wait for a move beyond the 149.20-149.25 hurdle
From a technical perspective, any further move up beyond the 149.25-149.30 immediate hurdle could assist the USD/JPY pair to reclaim the 150.00 psychological mark. Some follow-through buying beyond the 150.15 area might prompt a short-covering rally and lift spot prices to the 150.60 intermediate barrier en route to the 151.00 mark and the monthly peak, around the 151.30 region. On the flip side, the Asian session low, around the 148.60-148.55 region, now seems to protect the immediate downside, below which the USD/JPY pair could accelerate the fall towards the weekly low, around the 148.28-148.15 area touched on Thursday. This is followed by the 148.00 mark and the 147.75 horizontal support, which if broken should pave the way for a fall towards the 147.30 region en route to the 147.00 mark and the 146.55-146.50 area, or the lowest level since early October touched earlier this month. Economic Indicator National CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY) Japan’s National Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by the Statistics Bureau of Japan on a monthly basis, measures the price fluctuation of goods and services purchased by households nationwide excluding fresh food, whose prices often fluctuate depending on the weather. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Japanese Yen (JPY), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Last release: Thu Mar 20, 2025 23:30 Frequency: MonthlyActual: 3%Consensus: 2.9%Previous: 3.2%Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan  

On Friday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.1760 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1754 and 7.2423 Reuters estimate.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} On Friday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.1760 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1754 and 7.2423 Reuters estimate. PBOC FAQs What does the People's Bank of China do? The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market. Who owns the PBoC? The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts. What are the main policy tools used by the PBoC? Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi. Are private banks allowed in China? Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.  

AUD/USD remains under pressure for a second consecutive day, hovering around 0.6300 during Asian trading on Friday.

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The pair struggles as the US Dollar (USD) strengthens, supported by safe-haven demand amid growing risk aversion linked to US tariff policies. Meanwhile, US bond yields are declining as investors flock to Treasuries in response to economic and geopolitical uncertainties. Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell downplayed the inflationary impact of tariffs, calling it temporary, but acknowledged the challenges in assessing broader effects. While recession risks have risen, Powell suggested they remain relatively low for now. On the data front, US Initial Jobless Claims increased to 223K for the week ending March 15, slightly missing estimates of 224K and exceeding the previous week's revised figure of 221K (from 220K). Additionally, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey for March eased to 12.5 MoM, down from February’s 18.1. This marked the second consecutive monthly decline, though the drop was less severe than the expected 8.5. The Australian Dollar (AUD) also faces headwinds as traders reassess the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) monetary policy stance following weaker-than-expected jobs data. Australia's unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1% in February, but an unexpected decline in employment raised concerns about labor market weakness. The disappointing jobs report has fueled speculation that sustained labor market softness could provide the RBA with more flexibility to ease interest rates. However, RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter noted earlier in the week that while the board acknowledged room to reduce policy restrictiveness—following the recent decision to ease—it remains more cautious than markets about additional rate cuts. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.  

United Kingdom GfK Consumer Confidence above expectations (-21) in March: Actual (-19)

EUR/USD backslid for a second consecutive trading day, falling one-fifth of one percent on Thursday as markets continue to keep one foot in the safe haven US Dollar amid still-bubbling market tensions around the US’s waffling on tariff policy.

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Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell downplayed economic pitfalls at the hands of US President Donald Trump’s tariff threats that seem to exist in a quantum state where they both exist and do not exist simultaneously. According to Fed Chair Powell, downside risks have certainly elevated thanks to on-again, off-again tariff threats, but Fed policymakers continue to insist that US economic data remains healthy, albeit off of recent highs. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve (Fed) Bank’s Manufacturing Survey for March eased to 12.5 MoM, falling from the previous month’s 18.1 and declining for the second month in a row, but pulling the brakes and falling less than the median market forecast of 8.5. US weekly Initial Jobless Claims also rose slightly less than expected, clocking in at 223K net new jobless benefits seekers compared to the previous week’s 220K. Investors had expected a print of 224K. US Existing Home Sales also rose nearly a third of a million more transactions than expected, rising to 4.26 million units moved in February compared to January’s revised 4.09 million. Market watchers had expected a slight slowing to 3.95 million. there is little of note on Friday's economic data docket, leaving investors to grapple with and digest the week's events. Traders will also be keeping an eye out for any social media developments from President Trump. Donald Trump has made a habit of sending major proclamations into the void during Friday afternoons, prompting significant market reactions to both end the current week and kick off the next one, even though the majority of President Trump's statements have an iffy track record of coming true. EUR/USD price forecast EUR/USD shed weight for a second day, trimming another 20-odd pips and dragging the major pair back below the 1.0900 handle. Price action is drifting into rough sideways chop as directional momentum bleeds out of the charts, but near-term bidding action remains supported by 1.0800. EUR/USD daily chart Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.  

Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks fell from previous ¥-220.5B to ¥-1806.2B in March 14

Japan National CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY) above expectations (2.9%) in February: Actual (3%)

Japan National CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY) climbed from previous 2.5% to 2.6% in February

Japan National Consumer Price Index (YoY) down to 3.7% in February from previous 4%

Silver price consolidated below the $34.00 figure for the second consecutive day and printed a bearish day, losing over 0.68% on Thursday, characterized by overall US Dollar strength.

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At the time of writing, as the Asian session begins, the XAG/USD trades at $33.54, virtually unchanged. XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook Even though Silver hit a fresh five-day low of $33.10, it bounced off the latter and hovers in the mid $33-$34 range a troy ounce after forming a ‘hammer.’ Despite retracing somewhat during the last few days, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows buyers are moving in, which could push the grey’s metal price higher. If XAG/USD clears $34.00, the following key resistance would be October 30, 2024, peaking at $34.51, followed by the $35.00 mark. On the other hand, if XAG/USD tumbles beneath $33.00, the next support would be the $32.50 psychological figure, followed by the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $31.92. XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.  
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