ไทม์ไลน์ข่าวสาร forex

23:24 Canada PM Carney: Trump comments will need to stop before talks can begin
Newly-minted Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has hit the ground running on anti-Trump rhetoric as the new Canadian PM gears up to announce a national election in the coming days, and capitalize on Trump tensions that have sewered the US President's approval ratings amongst consumers and voters in recent weeks.

Newly-minted Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has hit the ground running on anti-Trump rhetoric as the new Canadian PM gears up to announce a national election in the coming days, and capitalize on Trump tensions that have sewered the US President's approval ratings amongst consumers and voters in recent weeks. PM Carney specifically noted that Donald Trump's slanderous comments about Canada becoming a state and continuing to refer to the Canadian Prime Minister as "Governor" will need to be rectified. PM Carney added further fuel to the fire meant to get under Trump's skin by extending a formal invitation to the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy to the upcoming G7 meeting, to be hosted by Canada in June. Canadian PM Carney also noted that Canada is toying with canceling its standing orders for US-produced F-35 fighter planes, noting that Canada has the manufacturing and technology capabilities to produce its own version of the modern-era warplane. Key highlights I invited Ukraine’s President Zelenskiy to June G7 summit in Canada. We're not trying to organize a coordinated retaliation against US tariffs. We want a more comprehensive discussion and negotiation of our overall commercial and security relationship with the US. Trump's comments about Canada will need to stop before bilateral discussions can begin.

23:22 AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Bulls step in and steal the 20-day SMA
AUD/JPY surged on Monday ahead of the Asian session, gaining traction and trading near the 95.30 zone after a strong bullish advance.

AUD/JPY was seen trading around the 95.30 area ahead of the Asian session, extending its rally.The pair climbed above the 20-day SMA, with indicators shifting into positive territory, suggesting sustained bullish momentum.AUD/JPY surged on Monday ahead of the Asian session, gaining traction and trading near the 95.30 zone after a strong bullish advance. Buyers took control, pushing the pair beyond the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), signaling a shift in momentum that could sustain further gains in the near term. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is trending higher in positive territory, reflecting the renewed strength of buyers, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is printing rising green bars, reinforcing the improving outlook. The bullish crossover in momentum indicators suggests that the pair could maintain its upward trajectory. Looking ahead, immediate resistance is seen at 95.50, with a breakout above this level paving the way toward 96.00. On the downside, initial support lies near 94.50, followed by a stronger floor around 94.00. As long as the pair holds above the 20-day SMA, the short-term outlook remains constructive for bulls. AUD/JPY daily chart

22:37 AUD/USD rallies on Chinese stimulus measures
The AUD/USD pair surged higher on Monday, benefiting from improved risk sentiment following China’s monetary stimulus measures.

China’s fresh monetary stimulus announcement bolsters investor sentiment, lifting demand for risk-sensitive assets.Traders await the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision and Australian labor market data for February.Technical indicators suggest a strong bullish outlook with AUD/USD breaking above key moving averages.The AUD/USD pair surged higher on Monday, benefiting from improved risk sentiment following China’s monetary stimulus measures. The Australian Dollar strengthened broadly as investors reacted positively to the prospect of increased liquidity in the Chinese economy. Meanwhile, traders are turning their attention to upcoming events, including the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) policy decision and Australia’s employment data for February, which could provide further direction for AUD/USD. Daily digest market movers: Australian Dollar strengthens as risk sentiment improves The Australian Dollar extended Friday’s rally, with AUD/USD climbing into the upper 0.6300s, marking a three-week high. The pair’s gains unfolded alongside a weaker US Dollar Index (DXY), which remained near multi-month lows around 103.30 due to persistent trade tensions and falling Treasury yields. China’s fresh monetary stimulus announcement provided a strong tailwind for the Aussie. The move aims to boost domestic demand and improve economic conditions, reinforcing support for risk-sensitive assets like the Australian Dollar. Trade tensions remain a key market driver. Uncertainty surrounding Washington’s unpredictable trade policies has left investors on high alert, as potential retaliatory measures from major US trading partners could escalate global trade conflicts. Given Australia’s reliance on commodity exports to China, market participants are closely monitoring US tariffs on Chinese imports. Fed policy expectations remain in focus. Investors anticipate that the Fed will keep rates steady at 4.25%-4.50% when it announces its decision on Wednesday. While some expect rate cuts later in the year, the central bank’s guidance will be crucial in shaping near-term US Dollar trends. Australia’s employment data for February, due on March 20, will be closely watched for clues on the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) next policy moves. The data is expected to impact speculation about potential rate adjustments in the coming months. AUD/USD technical analysis: Bulls push the pair above key resistance levels The AUD/USD rose on Monday, reaching the 0.6390 region during the American session, marking its strongest performance in over a week. The pair gained momentum as technical indicators turned decisively bullish with key levels being breached. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator printed a fresh green bar, signaling renewed upside pressure. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) climbed to 63, entering a strong bullish zone and confirming rising buying interest. AUD/USD has surged above both the 20-day and 100-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA), reinforcing a positive outlook. If upside momentum persists, the next resistance lies near 0.6420, while initial support is seen around 0.6320 in case of a pullback.

22:33 USD/JPY Price Forecast: Rises past 149.00 as traders eye key resistance
The USD/JPY rose for the second straight day, climbing past the 149.00 figure late in Monday after US economic data was mixed, following good Retail Sales data and a dismal New York Fed Empire State Manufacturing Index report.

21:58 Gold price nears $3,000 as US economy shows signs of cooling
Gold price rises on Monday late in the North American session, hoover near the $3,000 mark for the second straight day, after data from the United States (US) shows the economy is cooling.

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The XAU/USD trades at $2,999, up over 0.40%. Risk appetite improved as reflected by US equities with traders shrugging off a weak US Retail Sales report for February. In addition, the New York Fed Empire State Manufacturing Index plunged, sparking fears that the economy might be tipped into a recession. Therefore, money market futures are pricing in 64 basis points (bps) of easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed) toward the end of the year. The main event during the week is the Fed’s monetary policy decision on Wednesday, followed by Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference and the release of the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). In the meantime, Bullion continued to climb, sponsored by falling US Treasury yields and a weaker US Dollar. The US 10-year T-note yield dropped one basis point to 4.308%. At the same time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the buck’s performance against a basket of six currencies, fell 0.35% to 103.37. Daily digest market movers: Gold price is unfazed by high US real yields, extends rally US real yields, as measured by the US 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) yield, which correlates inversely to Gold prices, rose four bps to 2.00% via Reuters. February US Retail Sales improved, increasing by 0.2% MoM, missing forecasts of 0.6%, up from January’s -1.2% plunge. The New York Fed showed that manufacturing activity dipped from 5.7 to -20, with input prices increasing to their highest level in over two years. Despite recent cooler-than-expected inflation data, economists caution that tariffs on US imports could lead to a renewed inflationary uptick in the coming months. UBS projects Gold to reach $3,200 in 2025. “With the price now reaching our long-held target of $3,000/oz, the main question is whether the rally will continue. We think so, as long as policy risks and an intensifying trade conflict continue to spur safe-haven demand,” UBS said. XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold price struggles to hold above $3,000 Gold prices remain near record highs yet fail to advance sharply as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has exited overbought territory, opening the door for a pullback. It should be said there is a negative divergence with XAU/USD reaching higher prices, while the RSI failed to print new peaks. Nevertheless, if XAU/USD clears the previous record high of $3,004, the next resistance would be $3,050 and $3,100. Conversely, a daily close below $3,000 could sponsor a retracement toward the February 20 daily high at $2,954, followed by the $2,900 mark. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

21:43 US Trade Representative Greer introduces policy process for US tariffs
After months of on-again, off-again tariff proposals that spawn out of US President Donald Trump's social media accounts, newly-minted US Trade Representative (USTR) Jamieson Greer has attempted to smooth down the worst edges of the Trump administration's jagged policy proposals.

21:24 Forex Today: Canadian inflation and German morale take centre stage
The Greenback extended Friday’s bearish tone, hovering near the lower end of its recent range amid persistent concerns over a potential US economic slowdown and rising prudence pre-FOMC.

The Greenback extended Friday’s bearish tone, hovering near the lower end of its recent range amid persistent concerns over a potential US economic slowdown and rising prudence pre-FOMC.Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, March 18: The US Dollar Index (DXY) added to Friday’s pullback and remained in the low-103.00s on Monday. Building Permits and Housing Starts are due seconded by Import/Export Prices, Industrial and Manufacturing Production and the API’s weekly report on US crude oil supplies. EUR/USD rose modestly and managed to surpass the key 1.0900 barrier once again following the weaker note in the US Dollar. The Economic Sentiment in Germany and the Euroland will be at the centre of the debate, followed by the Balance of Trade results in the bloc. GBP/USD reversed two daily pullbacks in a row and flirted with the 1.3000 milestone amid renewed USD selling. Next of relevance across the Channel will be the labour market report and the BoE’s interest rate decision, both due on March 20. USD/JPY built up on Friday’s marked advance and trespassed the 149.00 hurdle once again, although the bullish impetus lost some traction afterwards. The Tertiary Industry Index will be released. AUD/USD broke above the 0.6300 mark with certain conviction and printed new multi-day highs in response to the generalised upbeat tone in the risk complex. The RBA’s Hunter is due to speak. Prices of WTI rose markedly, managing to extend Friday’s gains and advance past the $68.00 mark per barrel. Gold prices kept the constructive tone in place and hovered around the key $3,000 region per troy ounce following the slightly offered Dollar and mixed US yields. Silver prices retreated modestly, retesting the $33.50 region per ounce following Friday’s tops past the $34.00 yardstick.

20:55 Canadian Dollar rebounds, bolstered by rise in Crude Oil prices
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) lurched higher by around two-thirds of one percent on Monday, bolstered by a geopolitical spike in Crude Oil prices, as well as a broad-market softening in Greenback bids that helped the Loonie gain a much-needed leg up.

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Crude Oil prices lurched higher to kick off the new trading week, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) barrel prices finding the $68 per barrel figure after US President Donald Trump vowed to take Houthis to task over the group’s ramp-up of hostilities against civilian tanker ships in the Red Sea. While Middle East shipping lanes have little to do with North American Crude Oil markets, which are generally contained within industrial supply lines between Canada and the US, a general ramp-up of hostilities targeting shipping lanes tends to spark additional fear in commodity markets, juicing energy costs higher. Canadian Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures are in the barrel for Tuesday, and are expected to show another broad uptick in Canadian inflation pressures. An upside print in key inflation metrics bodes poorly for the Bank of Canada (BoC), which slashed interest rates again last week despite an expected upturn in inflation on the cards. The BoC is cutting rates in order to try and increase affordability in the runaway train that is the Canadian housing market. Unfortunately for BoC head Tiff Macklem, last week’s rate cut heading directly into another inflation upswing caused a general spike in Canadian bond markets, which most Canadian mortgages are priced against, causing housing funding costs to increase, not decrease. Daily digest market movers: Canadian Dollar climbs ahead of key CPI inflation The Canadian Dollar’s Monday rally pushed USD/CAD back below both the 1.4300 handle and the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.4325. The Trump administration is gearing up for a direct conflict with Houthis in the Red Sea as the Middle East group vows to step up attacks on civilian and military ships in key supply lines. Annualized headline Canadian CPI inflation is expected to accelerate to 2.1% YoY on Tuesday, up from the previous print of 1.9%. Core BoC CPI inflation continues to ride above the Canadian central bank’s 2.0% target, but markets are struggling to nail down a consistent forecast for Tuesday’s print. Markets are gearing up for another Federal Reserve (Fed) rate call this week, due on Wednesday. Canadian Dollar price forecast The Canadian Dollar’s Monday rally has put the Loonie back on pace to break out of its ongoing consolidation pattern against the US Dollar. USD/CAD has fallen back below 1.4300 as the CAD gains ground, but the next key technical level will be the 1.4200 handle. Despite Monday’s push lower in USD/CAD bids, the pair remains firmly entrenched in a sideways channel that has plagued the pair since December. CAD bidders will need to crack both the 1.4100 handle and the 200-day EMA at 1.4040 before a new Loonie rally can be confirmed. USD/CAD daily chart Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

20:33 US Dollar remains pressured ahead of key events
The US Dollar remains under pressure at the start of the week, drifting lower as investors digest softer-than-expected Retail Sales data and brace for key political developments.

19:54 Mexican Peso rallies for fourth day as US markets rebound
The Mexican Peso extended its gains against the US Dollar for the fourth consecutive trading day as Mexican financial markets remained closed due to a national holiday.

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Data from the United States (US) was overshadowed by an “unexpected” optimism in the financial market as most US equity indices recovered. The USD/MXN trades at 19.87, down 0.20%. Wall Street traded with modest gains on Monday. Following a decent February Retail Sales report, the US Dollar treads water, while activity plummeted in the NY Fed Empire State Manufacturing Index. All this happened as the Mexican economic docket remains absent with traders awaiting the release of Aggregate Demand and Private Spending figures on March 19 and 20, respectively. In the meantime, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) claimed that US President Donald Trump’s tariffs on Mexican products could spur a recession in Mexico, alongside an economic slowdown in the US. Private economists polled by Banco de Mexico in February revealed they expect the economy to grow at a 0.81% pace. Nevertheless, last Friday’s dismal Industrial Production figures and a deterioration in Consumer Confidence would likely weigh on the economy, which is expected to miss the Finance Minister's forecasts above the 2% threshold. Daily digest market movers: Mexican Peso unfazed by OECD’s economic projections Banxico is expected to continue easing policy at the March 27 meeting spurred by the evolution of the disinflation process and a stagnant economy. Last Wednesday, Mexican Finance Minister Edgar Amador Zamora said the national economy is expanding but shows signs of slowing down linked to trade tensions with the US. The OECD updates its forecasts, which include 25% tariffs applied on most goods from April. According to the OECD, the US economy is projected to grow by 2.2% in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026. The OECD projects that Mexico’s economy will be severely impacted, contracting -1.3% in 2025 and -0.6% next year. US Retail Sales in February rose by 0.2% MoM, missing estimates of 0.6%, and improved compared to January’s -1.2% fall. The New York Fed showed that manufacturing activity dipped from 5.7 to -20, with input prices increasing to their highest level in more than two years. Money market has priced in 64 basis points of easing by the Fed in 2025, which has sent US Treasury yields plunging alongside the American Currency. Trade tensions between the US and Mexico remain in focus with the Mexican Peso's outlook hinged on negotiations. A trade agreement could support a currency recovery, easing economic uncertainty. Nevertheless, higher tariffs and the USD/MXN may continue rising as protectionist policies could dampen Mexico’s economic growth, potentially leading to a recession. USD/MXN technical outlook: Mexican Peso climbs as USD/MXN drops below 20.00 The USD/MXN remains below the 20.00 figure, which keeps sellers hopeful of lower spot prices. Nevertheless, if they're going to revisit 2024 levels, they must clear the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 19.65. In that outcome, the next key support levels would be 19.50, 19.00, and August 20, 2024 low at 18.64. Otherwise, if USD/MXN rallies past 20.00, this would clear the path to test the 100-day SMA at 20.35. Mexican Peso FAQs What key factors drive the Mexican Peso? The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity. How do decisions of the Banxico impact the Mexican Peso? The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN. How does economic data influence the value of the Mexican Peso? Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Mexican Peso? As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

19:12 Dow Jones Industrial Average shrugs off data, continues to recover footing
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) climbed around 300 points on Monday as equities continue to claw back ground after a recent downturn that saw major indexes inch toward correction territory.

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US economic data continues to hint at a possible slowdown looming ahead, but oversold equity markets are shrugging off the warning signs falling too far, too quickly over the last few weeks. US Retail Sales rebounded to a tepid 0.2% MoM in February after January’s plunge. Markets were hoping for a better showing from key retail activity results, with a median forecast of 0.7%. Data watchers will note that January’s figure was also revised to a two-year low of -1.2%, and downside revisions will continue to plague the economic calendar as US data continues to worsen on the front end of the curve. Despite a near-term rebound in equity markets, key indexes remain steeply lower in March, sparked by overarching tariff threats from the Trump administration. US President Donald Trump has played fast and loose with his constantly changing tariff threats, introducing a new level of policy friction that markets have yet to become accustomed to. Despite President Trump flat-out refusing to acknowledge a growing risk of recession at the hands of his trade policies, key comments from people within his administration have tipped their hands that Trump’s team expect some “economic pain”. However, the Trump administration’s attempt to rebrand economic contraction as “resetting US markets” seems to have gone over rather poorly with investors. Dow Jones news The Dow Jones has extended into a second day of recovery gains, with the majority of the major equity index rising on Monday. UnitedHealth (UNH), Walmart (WM), and IBM (IBM) have all risen over 2% on the day. UNH rose back to $500 per share, Walmart climbed back over $85 per share, and IBM has reclaimed $250 per share. On the low end, Nvidia fell back 2.5%, dipping back below $120 per share as the tech rally continues to face difficulties. Dow Jones price forecast The Dow Jones Industrial Average is seeking a technical recovery following a rapid rebalancing of investor expectations: the Dow Jones has climbed 300 points on Monday, adding further momentum to last Friday’s 550-point gain. However, the key index remains steeply off of recent highs, declining over 3,300 points top-to-bottom over the last two weeks. Bidding pressure is pushing the Dow Jones back toward the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at the 42,000 handle. The DJIA found a technical floor at the 41,000 key price level, but buyers remain at the low end of a particularly steep hole as the Dow trades 3,300 points below record highs set last November just north of 45,000. Dow Jones daily chart Dow Jones FAQs What is the Dow Jones? The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500. What factors impact the Dow Jones Industrial Average? Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions. What is Dow Theory? Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits. How can I trade the DJIA? There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.

18:29 EUR/USD Price Analysis: Bulls regain ground but momentum shows signs of exhaustion
EUR/USD extended gains on Monday after the European session, climbing toward the 1.0910 area as bulls made a comeback following a brief corrective phase.

EUR/USD was seen trading around the 1.0910 zone after the European session, recovering after recent corrections.Despite the bounce, momentum indicators suggest uncertainty, with the RSI returning to overbought territory but the MACD showing weaker green bars.EUR/USD extended gains on Monday after the European session, climbing toward the 1.0910 area as bulls made a comeback following a brief corrective phase. The pair recovered moderately, but signs of fading momentum persist, making the short-term outlook uncertain. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has returned to overbought levels, signaling strong buying interest, yet the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is printing weaker green bars, suggesting that bullish momentum could be fading. This mixed picture leaves room for either sideways trading or a potential pullback if buyers fail to sustain the upward push. On the technical front, immediate resistance is found near 1.0930, and a breakout above this level could open the door for further gains toward 1.0950. On the downside, initial support lies at 1.0880, followed by a stronger floor around 1.0850. If sellers gain traction, the pair could see a deeper retracement in the sessions ahead. EUR/USD daily chart

17:26 GBP/USD nears multi-week highs, eyes on 1.3000
The Pound Sterling advances as the Greenback weakens, testing last week's high of 1.2987.

16:23 USD/JPY rises to near 149.00 as Yen weakens, BoJ-Fed policy in focus
The USD/JPY pair moves higher to near 149.00 in Monday’s North American session.

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The pair gains as the Japanese Yen (JPY) underperforms amid a cheerful market mood. The appeal of risky assets has improved amid optimism over the United States (US)-Russia peace talks on Tuesday. Japanese Yen PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Euro. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.22% -0.24% 0.03% -0.41% -0.42% -0.93% -0.34% EUR 0.22% -0.13% -0.16% -0.18% -0.33% -0.72% -0.14% GBP 0.24% 0.13% 0.29% -0.26% -0.22% -0.60% -0.08% JPY -0.03% 0.16% -0.29% -0.43% -0.66% -0.90% -0.49% CAD 0.41% 0.18% 0.26% 0.43% -0.22% -0.52% -0.48% AUD 0.42% 0.33% 0.22% 0.66% 0.22% -0.36% 0.23% NZD 0.93% 0.72% 0.60% 0.90% 0.52% 0.36% 0.58% CHF 0.34% 0.14% 0.08% 0.49% 0.48% -0.23% -0.58% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote). Earlier in the day, White House officials confirmed that US President Donald Trump will speak with Russian leader Vladimir Putin on peace in Ukraine. Last week, Ukraine agreed to a 30-day ceasefire plan after talks with US officials in Saudi Arabia. An end to a three-year-long war in Ukraine will restore supply chain issues. Such a scenario will be favorable for the global economic growth. On the domestic front, the major trigger for the Japanese Yen is the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) monetary policy decision and the National Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for February, which are scheduled for Wednesday and Friday, respectively. Though investors have underpinned the US Dollar against the Yen it is underperforming its other peers amid fears that US President Trump’s tariff agenda will slow down the economic growth. Flash Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index declined significantly to at 57.9 in March from 64.7 in February. This week, investors will pay close attention to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest policy decision, which will be announced on Wednesday. US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

16:02 USD/JPY to trade at 145.00 in the end of the year – Rabobank
USD/JPY has been on a downtrend since early January, Rabobank's FX analyst Jane Foley reports.

USD/JPY has been on a downtrend since early January, Rabobank's FX analyst Jane Foley reports. Concern from Ueda to disappoint JPY bulls this week "That said, in the past few sessions there have been signs of some corrective activity. The degree of hawkishness from the BoJ following this week’s policy meeting will likely be a crucial determinant of direction in the currency pair near-term. Further out, we retain our year end forecast of USD/JPY145.00 with downside risk." "For BoJ watchers, it is hoped that Ueda will this week offer some clarity as to whether the BoJ could hike rates more than once this year. This would likely mean the next rate hike will follow in Q2. In a stable geopolitical backdrop, the likelihood of two more policy moves this year would likely be relatively high." "However, evidence of a slowing US economy and uncertainty about Trump tariffs, potentially on Japan’s auto exports to the US, could inject a note of caution into the BoJ’s policy decisions this year. Notes of concern from Ueda on these issues will likely disappoint JPY bulls this week. That said, we would favour selling rallies to USD/JPY150.00 given our longer-term bullish JPY view."

16:00 United States NAHB Housing Market Index came in at 39, below expectations (42) in March
United States NAHB Housing Market Index came in at 39, below expectations (42) in March

15:37 AUD/USD advances to near 0.6350 amid strength in Australian Dollar
The AUD/USD pair surges to near 0.6350 in North American trading hours on Monday, the highest level seen in over a week.

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The Aussie pair strengthens as China’s fresh monetary stimulus plan has increased the Australian Dollar’s (AUD) appeal. An improvement in China’s economic outlook also boosts the AUD’s appeal, given the high dependency of Australian exports on China. Australian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.21% -0.28% 0.13% -0.43% -0.40% -0.87% -0.23% EUR 0.21% -0.19% -0.05% -0.21% -0.31% -0.67% -0.04% GBP 0.28% 0.19% 0.46% -0.24% -0.14% -0.50% 0.07% JPY -0.13% 0.05% -0.46% -0.55% -0.74% -0.94% -0.48% CAD 0.43% 0.21% 0.24% 0.55% -0.18% -0.44% -0.36% AUD 0.40% 0.31% 0.14% 0.74% 0.18% -0.33% 0.29% NZD 0.87% 0.67% 0.50% 0.94% 0.44% 0.33% 0.63% CHF 0.23% 0.04% -0.07% 0.48% 0.36% -0.29% -0.63% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). Over the weekend, the Chinese ministry announced a comprehensive “special action plan” to boost consumption and economic growth. The ministry reported that the plan focuses on increasing residents’ incomes, reducing financial burdens, and enhancing the consumption environment, Reuters report. Meanwhile, upbeat China’s Retail Sales and Industrial Production data for February has also supported the Aussie Dollar. On the domestic front, the Australian Dollar will be guided by the labor market data for February, which will be released on Thursday. The employment data will influence market speculation for the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monetary policy outlook. The US Dollar (USD) remains on the backfoot as investors expect a United States (US) economic slowdown under the leadership of President Donald Trump. His economic policies are expected to dampen economic activity and boost inflation. This week, investors will pay close attention to the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy decision, which will be announced on Wednesday. The Fed is expected to keep interest rates steady in the range of 4.25%-4.50%. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

14:55 GBP: Markets anticipate BoE hold decision Thursday – Scotiabank
Pound Sterling (GBP) retains a firm undertone. Investors are looking ahead to this week’s BoE policy decision and expecting a hold amid still sticky UK price trends, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

Pound Sterling (GBP) retains a firm undertone. Investors are looking ahead to this week’s BoE policy decision and expecting a hold amid still sticky UK price trends, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. GBP is firmer on the day "A split decision is possible, but market pricing is firmly in the camp of no change amid clear messaging from senior policy makers that slow and cautious adjustments in policy are likely moving forward." "GBP has been carving out a running consolidation just below the 1.30 level over the past week. The pound’s push higher so far today suggests a retest of last week’s 1.2990 high is developing ahead of a push on to the “real” top of the range at the moment at 1.3035. Support is 1.2925/30."

14:53 EUR/USD: Above 1.0900/10, EUR to retest 1.0950/60 – Scotiabank
The Euro (EUR) traded narrowly for most of the overnight session before rallying from the upper 1.08s to retest Friday’s intraday high in the low 1.09 area in a spurt of gains through late morning European trade, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

The Euro (EUR) traded narrowly for most of the overnight session before rallying from the upper 1.08s to retest Friday’s intraday high in the low 1.09 area in a spurt of gains through late morning European trade, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. EUR snaps higher through low 1.09s "Markets are turning more constructive on the EUR outlook on the back of Germany’s fiscal plans. Solid economic data from China, a key export market for Germany, to start the year plus Beijing’s ongoing efforts to boost consumption may be having some positive spillover impact on EUR sentiment." "EUR/USD is nudging higher to test minor bull breakout resistance around the 1.09 point in early trade. Spot has found firm support on dips top the low 1.08 area, as expected, over the past week. A 'natural' progression for price is to now test the topside of the range." "A push through 1.0900/10 should see gains extend to retest 1.0950/60—the last, major resistance point ahead of a full retest of 1.12."

14:50 CAD firms modestly on the day – Scotiabank
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is little changed over the weekend, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is little changed over the weekend, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. CAD retests key USD support at 1.4350 "There has been scant news on US/Canada tariff issues but PM Carney did remark Friday that there was progress in talks, without specifying what that progress was. The CAD is catching a bit of a bid off the generally softer USD tone to press up against the recent range low (and technical support) for the USD in the mid-1.43s. The USD continues to trade significantly above our fair value estimate (1.4109 currently), suggesting ample downside potential in spot at least." "Technical signals are mixed. On the one hand, price moves last week indicated a short-term top/reversal (bearish 'evening star' candle pattern) developed around Tuesday’s spot high. Firm resistance sits at 1.4515/20 now and a little higher still at 1.4545/50." "However, the USD enjoys the support of solidly bullish trend momentum across the intraday, daily and weekly charts now which will bolster support around 1.4340/50 (40-day MA and last week’s low). A push under 1.4350 may see spot ease back to 1.4225/50."

14:47 USD softer as tariff concerns persist – Scotiabank
The US Dollar (USD) is weaker as US equity futures dip in response to Treasury Secretary Bessent expressing no concern about recent equity market volatility and President Trump saying that reciprocal and sectoral tariffs will be announced on April 2, apparently upping the tariff ante yet again.

The US Dollar (USD) is weaker as US equity futures dip in response to Treasury Secretary Bessent expressing no concern about recent equity market volatility and President Trump saying that reciprocal and sectoral tariffs will be announced on April 2, apparently upping the tariff ante yet again. It was not clear from the remarks whether reciprocal tariffs will be added on top of sectoral tariffs or not, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. President Trump threatens reciprocal and sectoral tariffs April 2 "Stocks perked up nicely on Friday but these comments suggest there is still immense uncertainty ahead for investors to contend with and that there is little chance of a significant pick up in risk appetite for now. US equity futures are weaker on the session currently. International investors may be looking hard at US returns and allocations amid signs of slowing global growth around US tariff action given that, since the election, the USD, US corporate high yield bonds and stocks have underperformed relative to Treasurys and other, foreign assets." "Meanwhile, policymakers in Europe and China are channeling policy efforts to provide more stimulus (China outlined plans to boost incomes and consumption earlier todfay). More weakness in the USD looks quite likely moving forward. It’s a busy week for central banks but many policy decisions are expected to result in unchanged rates (the Fed, BoE, BoJ, BCCh). The SNB may ease 25bps while the consensus expects a 100bps increase in Brazil’s Selic rate. " "On the charts, the DXY appears to be breaking down from the consolidation range that held for most of last week when DXY rebounds were capped around 104.05/10. Index losses below 103.7 are bearish on the short-term chart and point to a push to test key support at 103.2; broader points still suggest a drop to the 100/102 range."

14:37 US Dollar flat at start of another pivotal week in markets
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, could see an outburst in volatility this week amid geopolitical developments and the Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} The US Dollar edges lower at the start of the week with all eyes on the Trump-Putin meeting on Tuesday. US bond markets are set to move on the upcoming Fed meeting on Wednesday. The US Dollar Index remains stuck in a tight range after US Retail Sales data on Monday. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, could see an outburst in volatility this week amid geopolitical developments and the Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting. At the time of writing on Monday, the DXY index edges lower and trades near 103.50 ahead of the United States (US) Retail Sales data for February. On the geopolitical front, a high-stakes meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin is scheduled on Tuesday, with the two parties to discuss territory and to divide up certain assets, according to President Trump on Sunday at Airforce One, Bloomberg reported. The second big development is in German politics, with a vote on a €1 trillion spending package on Tuesday to boost Europe’s weapon industry, which would spill over into the whole European industry. If an agreement and backing can be reached with the Greens, a two-thirds majority would be present to get the plan through the German Bundestag. On the economic data front, all eyes will be on the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on Wednesday, where every voting Fed member will be penciling in their projection of where the central bank’s policy rate will be in the near and medium term. Ahead of the Fed’s rate decision and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech, US Retail Sales for February saw a dreadful revision while current Retail Sales fell flat.Daily digest market movers: Retail Sales says Customer is fed upPresident Trump said he will speak with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday as the US presses for an end to fighting in Ukraine, Bloomberg reports. On Sunday, during a flight on Air Force One, President Trump confirmed that the discussion will be about territory and dividing up certain assets, and that there is "a very good chance" for a deal. At 12:30 GMT, US Retail Sales for February came out: The monthly figure came in at 0.2%, missing the 0.7% from the previous 0.9% contraction in January. It comes even more painful that the -0.9% got revised down to -1.2%. The yearly number was at 4.2% previously and fell to 3.1% while that 4.2% previously got revised to 3.9%. At the same time, the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index for March took a beating, contracting by 20, missing the small 1.9 contraction expected, coming from a positive 5.7 in February. Equities are not impressing, with another sluggish performance on Monday. US futures are all in the red, while European equities are ticking up in the green. The CME Fedwatch Tool sees a 99.0% chance for no interest rate changes in the upcoming Fed meeting on Wednesday. The chances of a rate cut at the May 7 meeting currently stand at 27.5%. The US 10-year yield trades around 4.30%, off its near five-month low of 4.10% printed on March 4.US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Stuck in a ditchThe US Dollar Index (DXY) is stuck in a range between 103.18 and 103.99. However, seeing the geopolitical risk events and the Fed decision this week, a breakout looks inevitable. Watch out for any false breaks and stick to clear technical levels that make sense, such as the 105.00 round level on the upside and the 101.90 on the downside. Upside risk is a rejection at 104.00 that could result in more downturn. If bulls can avoid that, look for a large sprint higher towards the 105.00 round level, with the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 105.01. Once broken through that zone, a string of pivotal levels, such as 105.53 and 105.89, will present as caps. On the downside, the 103.00 round level could be considered a bearish target in case US yields roll off again, with even 101.90 not unthinkable if markets further capitulate on their long-term US Dollar holdings. US Dollar Index: Daily Chart US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

14:36 US Retail Sales rise by 0.2% in February vs. 0.7% expected
Retail Sales in the United States (US) rose by 0.2% in February to $722.7 billion, the US Census Bureau announced on Monday.

Retail Sales in the US rose at a softer pace than expected in February.The US Dollar Index stays in negative territory near 103.50.Retail Sales in the United States (US) rose by 0.2% in February to $722.7 billion, the US Census Bureau announced on Monday. This reading followed the 1.2% decrease reported in January and came in worse than the market expectation for an increase 0.7%. On a yearly basis, Retail Sales were up 3.1%. "Total sales for the December 2024 through February 2025 period were up 3.8% from the same period a year ago," the press release read. "Retail trade sales were up 0.5% from January 2025, and up 3.4% from last year." Market reaction This report failed to trigger a noticeable market reaction. At the time of press, the US Dollar Index was down 0.15% on the day at 103.58.

14:30 United States NY Empire State Manufacturing Index came in at -20 below forecasts (-1.9) in March
United States NY Empire State Manufacturing Index came in at -20 below forecasts (-1.9) in March

14:30 United States Retail Sales (YoY): 3.1% (February) vs previous 4.2%
United States Retail Sales (YoY): 3.1% (February) vs previous 4.2%

14:30 United States Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) below forecasts (0.5%) in February: Actual (0.3%)
United States Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) below forecasts (0.5%) in February: Actual (0.3%)

14:30 United States Retail Sales Control Group climbed from previous -0.8% to 1% in February
United States Retail Sales Control Group climbed from previous -0.8% to 1% in February

14:30 United States Retail Sales (MoM) came in at 0.2%, below expectations (0.7%) in February
United States Retail Sales (MoM) came in at 0.2%, below expectations (0.7%) in February

14:30 Canada Foreign Portfolio Investment in Canadian Securities below expectations ($17.44B) in January: Actual ($7.91B)
Canada Foreign Portfolio Investment in Canadian Securities below expectations ($17.44B) in January: Actual ($7.91B)

14:30 Canada Canadian Portfolio Investment in Foreign Securities fell from previous $3.77B to $-3.15B in January
Canada Canadian Portfolio Investment in Foreign Securities fell from previous $3.77B to $-3.15B in January

14:15 Canada Housing Starts s.a (YoY) registered at 229K, below expectations (248.5K) in February
Canada Housing Starts s.a (YoY) registered at 229K, below expectations (248.5K) in February

13:38 WTI refreshes weekly high near $68.00 on China’s fresh stimulus plan
West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, posts a fresh weekly high near $68.00 in European trading hours on Monday.

13:27 China: Three major structural constraints prevent boosting consumption – BBH
China’s January-February economic data was better-than-anticipated.

China’s January-February economic data was better-than-anticipated. Meanwhile, China unveiled on Sunday a 'Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption' by raising incomes, stabilizing the housing and stock markets, and improving medical and pension services. In fact, rebalancing the economy away from investment toward domestic consumption has been an explicit goal of China since the December 2004 Central Economic Work Conference. However, three major structural constraints prevent any meaningful effort to boost the role consumption plays in the economy, BBH FX analysts report. Fiscal reforms to help China achieve the investment-to-consumer pivot "i) Low household income levels. China household income accounts for 61% of GDP while in the West households retain a larger share of what they produce, typically 70-80% of GDP. China’s investment-driven growth model means that local governments capture a significant portion of economic output due to their control of land sales and infrastructure investment." "ii) High precautionary savings. Households save a significant portion of their income (over 30% of GDP) due in part to weak social safety nets, falling job security, and an aging population. Moreover, wealth is concentrated among higher-income groups who tend to save more rather than spend. iii) High levels of household debt. Household debt is quite large relative to household income at 145%. For comparison, US household liabilities to disposable income totaled 95% in Q4 2024." "In our view, fiscal reforms that leads households to have a greater piece of the economic pie in combination with a gradual revaluation of China’s currency could help China achieve that long-overdue investment-to-consumer pivot."

13:18 Gold edges higher at start of eventful week
Gold’s price (XAU/USD) edges slightly higher and trades around $2,995 at the time of writing on Monday following Friday’s take-profit-led correction after hitting a fresh all-time high of $3,005.

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Traders brace for a very eventful week with geopolitics and the Federal Reserve decision. Gold could hit $3,020 in the near term, with UBS joining BNP in its projections for $3,200.Gold’s price (XAU/USD) edges slightly higher and trades around $2,995 at the time of writing on Monday following Friday’s take-profit-led correction after hitting a fresh all-time high of $3,005. Traders are bracing for a rather eventful week with the German Bundestag set to vote on the defense spending plan, which would boost the European industry by €1 trillion, on Tuesday. On that same day, United States (US) President Donald Trump is scheduled to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin on a possible peace deal for Ukraine. As if that is not enough, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and its Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) convene on Tuesday and Wednesday before issuing its latest monetary policy decision. Traders will be eager to see how every FOMC member will vote and pencil in forward guidance on the Dot Plot (Philips) curve. Expectations are for no change in the monetary policy, while expectations for a rate cut in May or June constantly increase and decrease day over day. Daily digest market movers: Looking forwardPresident Trump said he will speak with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday as the US presses for an end to fighting in Ukraine and European nations rush to bolster their support for Kyiv, Bloomberg reports. Trump confirmed that the discussion will be about territory and dividing up certain assets, and there is "a very good chance" for a deal. UBS Group AG became the latest bank to raise its price outlook for Gold on increasing chances of a protracted global trade war, a scenario analysts expect will continue to drive investors to scoop up more of the precious metal haven asset. UBS sees the same level as BNP, with Gold trading at $3,200 in the second quarter. The CME Fedwatch Tool sees a 99.0% chance for no interest rate changes in the upcoming Fed meeting on Wednesday. The chances of a rate cut at the May 7 meeting currently stand at 27.5%. Technical Analysis: $3,000 to be reclaimedThe $3,000 mark is now the main beacon going forward and needs to hold ground at one point. Seeing the steep surge to a fresh all-time high last week, it is still quite good for the precious metal to fall below the level briefly and allow traders to reenter at a lower price. Once the $3,000 level starts to hold and does not allow any excursion below it, traders can gear up for $3,100 and $3,200 in a couple of weeks or months. The new all-time high at $3,004 reached on Friday is the first level to beat once $3,000 is reclaimed again. That mentioned psychologically important $3,000 level faces a double challenge on Monday, with the R1 resistance coming in at $2,999 to reinforce this area. Intraday traders might use this zone to scalp some profit, as the R2 resistance at $3,015 looks a bit too far for the day. On the downside, the daily Pivot Point at $2,989 has provided ample support to avoid slippage to the downside earlier in the day. In case Gold reverses below that level, look for the S1 support at $2,973 and the S2 support at $2,962 on the downside. XAU/USD: Daily Chart Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

13:12 AUD/USD is firmer on the day – BBH
AUD/USD is firmer on broad US Dollar (USD) weakness and improving Chinese economic activity, BBH FX analysts report.

AUD/USD is firmer on broad US Dollar (USD) weakness and improving Chinese economic activity, BBH FX analysts report. Broad USD weakness pushes AUD/USD upwards "Australia’s Treasurer Jim Chalmers warned that Cyclone Alfred is estimated to reduce Q1 GDP by -0.25pts and lead to upward pressure on inflation. The RBA will look through this temporary negative supply shock. The RBA signaled it will pay particular attention to labor market development to guide future policy decision." "Australia’s labor market report is due Wednesday. In the meantime, cash rate futures continue to imply almost 75bps of easing in the next twelve months with the next 25bps cut fully priced-in for July."

13:03 USD/CNH: Support level at 7.2100 is unlikely to come under threat – UOB Group
USD is expected to edge lower; the major support level at 7.2100 is unlikely to come under threat.

USD is expected to edge lower; the major support level at 7.2100 is unlikely to come under threat. In the longer run, current price movements are likely part of a 7.2100/7.2800 consolidation range, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. USD is expected to edge lower 24-HOUR VIEW: "We noted 'a slight increase in upward momentum last Friday,' and we expected USD to 'edge higher.' However, we pointed out, 'any advance is unlikely to reach 7.2650.' Our view did not materialise as USD traded between 7.2312 and 7.2541. From here, there has been a slight increase in downward momentum, and we expect USD to edge lower. However, the major support at 7.2100 is unlikely to come under threat (there is another support level at 7.2200). On the upside, resistance levels are at 7.2400 and 7.2460." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Last Friday, 14 Mar, when USD was at 7.2490, we revised our view to neutral. We indicated that 'the current price movements are likely part of a 7.2100/7.2800 consolidation range.' We continue to hold the same view."

13:01 India Trade Deficit Government down to $14.05B in February from previous $22.99B
India Trade Deficit Government down to $14.05B in February from previous $22.99B

12:57 USD/MXN can try to reclaim recent pivot high at 20.40 – Société Générale
USD/MXN has breached the lower limit of its multi-month range denoting risk of persistence in decline, Société Générale's FX analysts note.

USD/MXN has breached the lower limit of its multi-month range denoting risk of persistence in decline, Société Générale's FX analysts note. USD can also fall towards 19.57 and 19.35 "Next layer of support is located at 19.75/19.68 representing the 200-DMA. Daily MACD is within deep negative territory highlighting a stretched down move. It will be interesting to see if the pair can attempt a bounce and reclaim recent pivot high at 20.40. Inability to defend the MA at 19.68 can result in a deeper pullback towards next projections at 19.57 and 19.35."

12:54 USD/JPY: To trade between 147.80 and 149.20 – UOB Group
US Dollar (USD) is expected to trade in a range vs Japanese Yen (JPY), most likely between 147.80 and 149.20.

US Dollar (USD) is expected to trade in a range vs Japanese Yen (JPY), most likely between 147.80 and 149.20. In the longer run, no change in view; USD is expected to trade in a range between 146.50 and 149.50, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Downward momentum has largely faded 24-HOUR VIEW: "Last Friday, we expected USD to 'trade in a range between 147.45 and 148.70.' However, USD traded in a higher range of 147.74/149.02, closing at 148.62 (+0.55%). The price action did not result in a significant increase in upward momentum. We continue to expect range trading today, mostly likely between 147.80 and 149.20." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Our most recent narrative was from last Wednesday (12 Mar, spot at 148.00), wherein 'downward momentum has largely faded,' and USD 'is likely to trade in a range between 146.50 and 149.50.' There is no change in our view."

12:49 GBP: Waiting for the BoE meeting – Danske Bank
The big event this week for GBP FX is the Bank of England meeting on Thursday, Danske Bank's FX analyst Jens Nærvig Pedersen reports.

The big event this week for GBP FX is the Bank of England meeting on Thursday, Danske Bank's FX analyst Jens Nærvig Pedersen reports. German politics and global factors are driving EUR/GBP movements "We expect an unchanged decision, keeping the Bank Rate at 4.50%. We expect the market reaction to be rather muted but look out for any guidance on altering the gradual approach to cutting interest rates." "Our bias is for a swifter cutting cycle than currently priced by markets, which could weigh on GBP FX. For now, German politics and global factors are the main driving force for EUR/GBP. We stay bearish."

12:46 NZD/USD: Upward momentum is building again – UOB Group
Increase in momentum suggests potential for NZD to continue to advance; it is unclear whether it can break and remain above the 0.5765/0.5775 resistance zone.

Increase in momentum suggests potential for NZD to continue to advance; it is unclear whether it can break and remain above the 0.5765/0.5775 resistance zone. In the longer run, upward momentum is building again; NZD must break and remain above the 0.5765/0.5775 resistance zone before a sustained rise is likely, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. NZD to continue to advance 24-HOUR VIEW: "Our expectation for NZD to trade in a range last Friday was incorrect. Instead of trading in a range, NZD soared to a high of 0.5755, closing on a strong note at 0.5750 (+0.93%). The increase in momentum suggests there is potential for NZD to continue to advance. However, it is unclear for now whether NZD break and remain above the 0.6765/0.5775 resistance zone. To sustain the momentum, NZD must remain above 0.5720 (minor support is at 0.5735)." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Last Friday (14 Mar), when NZD was at 0.5700, we indicated that 'the current price movements are likely part of a range trading phase, most likely between 0.5640 and 0.5765.' We did not expect the subsequent strong advance in NZD that reached 0.5755. Upward momentum is building again, but NZD must break and remain above the 0.5765/0.5775 resistance zone before a sustained rise is likely. The likelihood of NZD breaking clearly above the resistance zone will remain intact as long as 0.5695 is not breached in the next few days."

12:40 Brent: Below $73.70, there is a risk of persistence in decline – Société Générale
Brent has experienced a steady pullback after failing to establish above the 200-DMA in January, Société Générale's FX analysts note.

Brent has experienced a steady pullback after failing to establish above the 200-DMA in January, Société Générale's FX analysts note. Below $68.70, next objectives are at $66.80 and $65.70/65.50 "It has retested the low of last September at $68.70. A brief rebound has materialized however the peak achieved earlier this month at $73.70 could be a short-term resistance. If Brent fails to overcome this hurdle, there would be risk of persistence in decline. Below $68.70, next objectives could be located at projections of $66.80 and $65.70/65.50."

12:35 USD/CAD Price Forecast: Trades cautiously near 1.4350 as Fed policy takes centre stage
The USD/CAD pair struggles to gain ground near the three-day low of 1.4360 in European trading hours on Monday.

12:33 AUD/USD: Likely to trade in a higher range of 0.6245/0.6385 – UOB Group
Scope for Australian Dollar (AUD) to rise further vs US Dollar (USD), but it does not seem to have enough momentum to test 0.6385 (there is another resistance at 0.6365).

Scope for Australian Dollar (AUD) to rise further vs US Dollar (USD), but it does not seem to have enough momentum to test 0.6385 (there is another resistance at 0.6365). In the longer run, slightly firm underlying tone suggests AUD is likely to trade in a higher range of 0.6245/0.6385, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. AUD can test the resistance at 0.6365 in short term 24-HOUR VIEW: "We did not anticipate AUD rising sharply to 0.6331 last Friday (we were expecting range trading). Despite the relatively strong advance, upward momentum has not increased much. However, there is scope for AUD to rise further, but it does not seem to have enough momentum to test the major resistance at 0.6385. Note that there is another resistance level at 0.6365. Support is at 0.6315; a breach of 0.6300 would indicate that the current upward pressure has eased." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We have expected AUD to trade in a range since early last week. In our most recent narrative from last Thursday (12 Mar, spot at 0.6325), we highlighted that 'the slightly firm underlying tone suggests a higher range of 0.6245/0.6385.' There is no change in our view."

12:27 China: A good start to 2025 – Standard Chartered
January-February activity data beat expectations, supported by fiscal front-loading.

January-February activity data beat expectations, supported by fiscal front-loading. Property investment remained in a deep contraction; home prices declined further. Policy support should help contain the downside risk, in our view, with consumption being prioritised, Standard Chartered's economists note. Sustaining the momentum is key "January-February activity data largely beat market expectations, except in property investment. Both new home and used home prices continued to decline compared with December, suggesting that the housing market has yet to find the bottom. On the other hand, strong infrastructure and manufacturing FAI data supported industrial demand, and the government’s commitment to support growth, especially consumption, coupled with seasonal holiday demand, helped retail sales." "Fiscal stimulus appears to have been front-loaded over 2M-2025. Aggregate total social financing (TSF) growth rose to 8.2% y/y in February on record-high government bond issuance. Fiscal spending appeared to be much higher than over the same period for the last five years; we think this should help correct budget under-implementation, which has weakened fiscal policy effectiveness in recent years. We maintain our GDP growth forecast for 2025 at 4.5%, and see upside risk to our estimate on better-than-expected macro data so far and a high likelihood of further stimulus being rolled out in the event of a significant economic downturn." "Meanwhile, we see challenges to China achieving its 5% growth target. Domestically, medium- and long-term loans to both households and corporates were lacklustre in 2M-2025, pointing to subdued housing purchases and private investment. CPI inflation dipped to -0.7% in February, still pointing to a supply-demand imbalance. Externally, export growth has slowed notably after the US tariff hikes, with bilateral tensions possibly building up even further."

12:14 OECD lowers global growth outlook on trade tensions
In its latest report published on Monday, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) lowers global growth outlook on trade tensions, seeing stronger inflation pressures.

In its latest report published on Monday, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) lowers global growth outlook on trade tensions, seeing stronger inflation pressures. Additional takeaways OECD cuts US 2025 growth forecast to 2.2% from 2.4% and 2026 to 1.6% from 2.1%. OECD cuts Canada's 2025 and 2026 growth forecasts to 0.7% from 2%. OECD trims 2025 global growth forecast to 3.1% from 3.3% and cuts 2026 to 3% from 3.3%. Higher-than-expected inflation could prompt more restrictive monetary policy and spook financial markets. OECD raises the 2025 Chinese growth forecast to 4.8% from 4.7%, leaving the 2026 forecast unchanged at 4.4%. Simulation shows that a broad-based trade war will cost US households $1600 and cost public finances more than extra tariff income generates. OECD slashes Mexico's 2025 growth forecast to -1.3% from 1.2%, cuts 2026 outlook to -0.6% from 1.6%. Simulation shows that a broad-based trade war could shave 0.3 percentage points off global growth and 0.7 percentage points for the US.

12:12 Pound Sterling consolidates at the start of Fed-BoE monetary policy week
The Pound Sterling (GBP) trades in a tight range against the US Dollar (USD) around 1.2950 at the start of the week.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Pound Sterling is stuck in a tight range around 1.2950 against the US Dollar, with investors awaiting the Fed-BoE monetary policy outcome later this week.US officials, including President Donald Trump, expect economic turbulence from new policies.The UK economy contracted by 0.1% and the factory data declined significantly in January.The Pound Sterling (GBP) trades in a tight range against the US Dollar (USD) around 1.2950 at the start of the week. The GBP/USD pair is expected to trade cautiously as investors await the monetary policy decision from the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of England (BoE), which will be announced on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. Both the Fed and the BoE are expected to keep interest rates steady. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the Fed is almost certain to keep borrowing rates steady in the range of 4.25%-4.50%. This would be the second straight policy meeting in which the central bank will leave interest rates unchanged. Traders have remained increasingly confident about the Fed maintaining a status quo on Wednesday as officials have been arguing in favor of maintaining a “wait and see” approach amid uncertainty over the economic outlook under the leadership of US President Donald Trump. Market participants expect President Trump’s economic policies to push inflation higher, and weigh on growth prospects in the near term. Flash University of Michigan’s (UoM) survey of consumers in March showed on Friday that respondents see five-year consumer inflation expectations at 3.9%, up from 3.5% projected in February. The preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment index came in significantly lower at 57.9 in March compared to estimates of 63.1 and the former reading of 64.7. A slew of US officials such as President Trump, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have guided that Trump’s policies could lead to economic turbulence, but the transition will make America great again. Bessent said in an interview with NBC News on Sunday, “I can predict that we are putting in robust policies that will be durable, and could there be an adjustment,” adding that the country needed to be weaned off of “massive government spending.” His comments came after the interviewer asked whether Trump’s agenda could lead the economy to a recession. Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling to be influenced by BoE’s policy decision The Pound Sterling trades with caution against its major peers in European trading hours on Monday. The British currency is expected to remain on tenterhook, with investors focusing on the BoE’s monetary policy announcement on Thursday. Traders are confident about the BoE keeping interest rates steady as a slew of officials have guided a “gradual and cautious” interest rate cut approach. Investors will pay close attention to the monetary policy statement and BoE Governor Andrew Bailey’s press conference after the interest rate decision to get cues about the economic and monetary policy outlook. An economic contraction in the monthly United Kingdom (UK) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and a sharp decline in the Industrial and Manufacturing Production data for January have raised concerns over the economic outlook. The BoE also halved its GDP growth forecast to 0.75% in the February policy meeting. This week, investors will also focus on the UK labor market data for three months ending January, which will be released on Thursday, too. Investors will keenly focus on the Average Earnings data, a key measure of wage growth that is a major driver of inflation in the services sector. Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling consolidates below 1.3000 The Pound Sterling turns sideways after posting a fresh four-month high around the psychological level of 1.3000 against the US Dollar last week. The long-term outlook of the GBP/USD pair remains bullish as it holds above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is around 1.2700. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds above 60.00, indicating that the strong bullish momentum is intact. Looking down, the 50% Fibo retracement at 1.2775 and the 38.2% Fibo retracement at 1.2618 will act as key support zones for the pair. On the upside, the October 15 high of 1.3100 will act as a key resistance zone. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

12:06 China: Economic recovery continued into Jan-Feb, upside risk to 1Q25 GDP growth – UOB Group
China’s macroeconomic data turned out brighter than expected in Jan-Feb with industrial production, retail sales and urban fixed assets investment (FAI) above Bloomberg’s consensus forecasts.

China’s macroeconomic data turned out brighter than expected in Jan-Feb with industrial production, retail sales and urban fixed assets investment (FAI) above Bloomberg’s consensus forecasts. However, the unemployment rate unexpectedly surged while loans data suggested weak demand persisting, UOB Group's Economist Ho Woei Chen notes. Broad based improvement in industrial output, retail sales and investment "Industrial production may fade in Mar as frontloading unraveled after two rounds of US’ tariffs (10% w.e.f. 4 Feb followed by another 10% w.e.f. 4 Mar). However, there is optimism over China’s success in the high-tech sector as well as more positive view on the government’s resolve to stabilise growth at 'around 5%' this year. On Sun (16 Mar), China issued a 30-point plan to boost consumption." "To sustain the positive recovery momentum in Jan-Feb, stimulus will need to be stepped up to offset the impact from US’ tariffs and domestic challenges. The data in Jan-Feb suggests that China’s 1Q25 GDP growth may come close to the 5.4% y/y in 4Q24, compared to our expectation for a slowdown to 4.7% y/y and we expect the momentum to raise the full-year 2025 GDP growth to 4.7% compared to our previous forecast of 4.3%. This will be slightly below the official growth target."

12:01 GBP: Will BoE remain trapped with sticky wages? – ING
All the UK action this week comes on Thursday. That's when we'll see both the next instalment of UK wage data and the Bank of England MPC meeting, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

All the UK action this week comes on Thursday. That's when we'll see both the next instalment of UK wage data and the Bank of England MPC meeting, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes. The market prices 53bp of BoE rate cuts this year "On the former, consensus expects little leeway for the BoE to turn more dovish in that private sector wage growth is expected to remain above 6% three-month annualised. And there should not be much of a communication change at the BoE meeting, where we expect a 6-3 vote in favour of unchanged rates." "Currently, the market prices 53bp of BoE rate cuts this year. Our house view is for 75bp. And a potential catalyst to that dovish re-pricing is next week's Spring Statement from UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves. UK press reports are fixated on which government departments are at risk for spending cuts and the narrative of tighter fiscal policy looks a bearish one for sterling next week." "With the dollar also fragile, any sterling weakness may well come against the euro or the Japanese yen as investors opt for defensive positioning in equities ahead of the next burst of US tariffs in April. From levels near 193 today, GBP/JPY could well drop back to the 187 area over the coming weeks."

11:50 GBP/USD: Likely to trade in a 1.2900/1.2970 range – UOB Group
Pound Sterling (GBP) is likely to trade in a 1.2900/1.2970 range.

Pound Sterling (GBP) is likely to trade in a 1.2900/1.2970 range. In the longer run, to continue to rise, GBP must break and remain above 1.3000, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. To continue to rise, GBP must break and remain above 1.3000 24-HOUR VIEW: "We indicated last Friday that 'momentum indicators are turning flat,' and we expected GBP to 'trade in a 1.2900/1.2975 range.' Our view of range trading was not wrong, even though GBP traded in a narrower range than expected (1.2911/1.2958), closing modestly lower by 0.10% at 1.2938. The price action provides no fresh clues, and we continue to expect GBP to trade in a range, most likely between 1.2900 and 1.2970." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Our latest narrative was from last Thursday (13 Mar, spot at 1.2955) wherein 'to continue to rise, GBP must break and remain above 1.3000.' Since then, GBP has not been able to make further headway on the upside. However, only a breach of 1.2880 (no change in ‘strong support’ level) would indicate that the GBP strength that started earlier this month (see annotations in the chart below) has run its course."

11:44 USD: February retail sales need to rebound – ING
Beyond all the uncertainty associated with this year's on-again-off-again US tariffs, one core theme weighing on US interest rates and equities has been the fear of a slowing US consumer.

Beyond all the uncertainty associated with this year's on-again-off-again US tariffs, one core theme weighing on US interest rates and equities has been the fear of a slowing US consumer. Consumption has been the outsized driver of US growth since the pandemic, and concerns are growing that consumers are ready to spend less and save more as they await clarity on the fallout we could see from the new administration's plans for both the economy and job prospects. Consensus expects a 0.6% month-on-month recovery in the reading after last month's 0.9% drop. Any downside surprise today probably risks weaker equities, lower US interest rates and a weaker US Dollar (USD), ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes. DXY looks biased more towards 103.20/30 than 104.00/10 "The big question for investors right now is how hard Washington will push its reset agenda. Equities have been vulnerable to comments that the administration is prepared to accept a slowdown – or perhaps even a recession – as it ushers in a complete reset on global trade and security zones. Given the prospect of sizeable tariffs coming in early next month against Europe and Asia, we suspect risk assets are going to remain fragile on a multi-week view." "Returning to some of the big events this week, Wednesday sees an FOMC meeting and a new set of Federal Reserve forecasts. No major changes are expected in terms of policy rates, forecasts or communication. We do see the event as a slight upside risk to the dollar, however, as the Fed sticks to just two 25bp cuts this year (61bp currently priced) and Chair Jerome Powell has a good track record of saying the right things to calm the stock market." "Also in focus will be geopolitics, where US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin are due to hold a phone call on Tuesday. Any progress here is probably further good news for European FX and soft news for the DXY. US equity futures are currently trading down 0.6% even as Asian equity is showing modest gains on the back of a Chinese consumption package. Unless we get some surprisingly strong US retail sales figures today, a heavy-looking US stock market looks likely to keep US rates and the dollar on the soft side. DXY looks biased more towards 103.20/30 than 104.00/10."

11:33 EUR/USD: Likely to trade between 1.0845 and 1.0910 – UOB Group
Price movements in Euro (EUR) vs US Dollar (USD) are likely part of a range trading phase between 1.0845 and 1.0910.

Price movements in Euro (EUR) vs US Dollar (USD) are likely part of a range trading phase between 1.0845 and 1.0910. In the longer run, more than week-long rally is taking a pause; EUR is likely to consolidate in a 1.0680/1.0950 range for now, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. More than week-long rally is taking a pause 24-HOUR VIEW: "Last Thursday, EUR fell to a low of 1.0820. On Friday, we noted a 'mild downward pressure', and we were of the view that EUR 'could edge below 1.0820 but is unlikely to reach 1.0770.' EUR subsequently dipped to 1.0829 before staging a surprising sharp, but brief, rise to 1.0912. EUR closed higher by 0.25% at 1.0879. The price movements are likely part of a range trading phase, probably between 1.0845 and 1.0910." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "After holding positive EUR view for more than a week, we revised our outlook to neutral last Friday (14 Mar, spot at 1.0850). We indicated the following: 'The more than week-long rally is taking a pause, and the current price movements are likely part of a consolidation phase. For now, we expect EUR to trade in a 1.0680/1.0950 range. While this range may seem wide, it is not unexpected given the size of the recent rally.' Our update still stands."

11:31 Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Monday, according to FXStreet data.

11:25 EUR: Insights into the April ECB pause? – ING
It looks as though EUR/USD can stay relatively supported for the short term, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

It looks as though EUR/USD can stay relatively supported for the short term, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes. EUR/USD can see a nudge back up to the 1.0930/50 area "As above, US equities may well keep the dollar on the back foot, and in Europe, the focus will be on fiscal stimulus, defence spending and whether the European Central Bank pauses in its easing cycle at its 17 April meeting." "Potentially supportive for the euro this week are: a) Trump and Putin making any progress on Ukraine ceasefire talks, b) the German lower house passing reforms to the debt brake and approving a large fiscal stimulus, and c) ECB President Christine Lagarde potentially tilting the market towards a pause in April when the market is still pricing 14bp of rate cuts at that April meeting." "The above could see EUR/USD nudge back up to the 1.0930/50 area. EUR/USD could well come under pressure in April as Washington pushes through its reciprocal trade tariffs. 1.05-1.10 is our call for the EUR/USD trading range in the second quarter."

11:01 NZD/USD hits three-week high near 0.5775; seems poised to climb further on bearish USD
The NZD/USD pair gains positive traction for the second straight day on Monday and climbs to a three-week high, around the 0.5775 region during the first half of the European session.

11:00 Italy Consumer Price Index (YoY) below expectations (1.7%) in February: Actual (1.6%)
Italy Consumer Price Index (YoY) below expectations (1.7%) in February: Actual (1.6%)

11:00 Italy Consumer Price Index (MoM) meets forecasts (0.2%) in February
Italy Consumer Price Index (MoM) meets forecasts (0.2%) in February

11:00 Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY) meets forecasts (1.7%) in February
Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY) meets forecasts (1.7%) in February

11:00 Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (MoM) in line with forecasts (0.1%) in February
Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (MoM) in line with forecasts (0.1%) in February

10:49 Palladium price today: Rare metals advance at the start of the European session
Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) trade with a positive tone at the beginning of Monday, according to FXStreet data.

10:45 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD remains close to $34.00 near five-month highs
Silver price (XAG/USD) continues to lose ground for the second successive day, trading around $33.70 per troy ounce during the European hours on Monday.

10:24 Crude oil price today: WTI price bullish at European opening
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price advances on Monday, early in the European session.

10:16 ECB’s de Guindos: Trade war is bad news for the world economy, everyone loses in that situation
European Central Bank (ECB) Vice President Luis de Guindos said on Monday, “trade war is bad news for the world economy, everyone loses in that situation.” US President Donald “Trump administration has increased economic uncertainty due to tariffs, deregulation,” the ECB official added.

European Central Bank (ECB) Vice President Luis de Guindos said on Monday, “trade war is bad news for the world economy, everyone loses in that situation.” US President Donald “Trump administration has increased economic uncertainty due to tariffs, deregulation,” the ECB official added. Market reaction These comments fail to move a needle around the Euro, with EUR/USD trading flat on the day near 1.0885.

10:13 US Dollar Index Price Forecast: Hovers around 103.50 support close to four-month lows
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the US Dollar's (USD) performance against six major currencies, remains under pressure for the second straight session, hovering around 103.70 during Monday's European trading hours.

10:12 EUR/USD wobbles as Fed’s policy takes center stage
EUR/USD trades in a tight range below the key level of 1.0900 in European trading hours on Monday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD consolidates around 1.0880 to start the week as investors await the Fed’s monetary policy decision on Wednesday.The Fed is widely anticipated to keep interest rates steady as the focus shifts to the dot plot and Powell’s comments.Greens’ signal to German debt restructuring deal and optimism over Russia-Ukraine peace have uplifted the Euro’s appeal.EUR/USD trades in a tight range below the key level of 1.0900 in European trading hours on Monday. The major currency pair consolidates as investors await the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decision, which will be announced on Wednesday. The Fed is almost certain to keep interest rates steady in the current range of 4.25%-4.50%. Therefore, the US Dollar’s (USD) outlook will be guided by the Fed’s dot plot, which shows where officials see interest rates heading in the near and longer term, as well as the growth, employment, and inflation outlook in the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). In the December meeting, Fed policymakers anticipated two interest rate cuts this year. Investors will also focus on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks on the US economic outlook in the press conference following the monetary policy decision. A slew of US officials, including President Donald Trump, have stated that tariff policies could lead to some economic shocks in the near term. On Sunday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in an interview with NBC News, “I can predict that we are putting in robust policies that will be durable, and could there be an adjustment,” adding that the country needed to be weaned off of “massive government spending.” His comments came after the interviewer asked whether Trump’s agenda could lead the economy to a recession. Last week, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said that policies by the President are the most important thing America has ever had, and “they worth it” after being asked whether it would be worth executing Trump’s policies even if they led to a recession. Market participants worry that Trump’s tariff policies could be inflationary and batter households’ consumption. Such a scenario bodes poorly for the US Dollar. Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD trades in tight range while Euro remains firm EUR/USD oscillates in a tight range as the US Dollar consolidates ahead of the Fed’s monetary policy meeting. The Euro (EUR) trades firmly as German leaders, including Franziska Brantner-led-Greens, agreed to set up a 500 billion Euro infrastructure fund and dramatic changes in the borrowing rules or stretch in the so-called ‘debt brake’, which would be approved in the lower house of Parliament on Tuesday. Market participants expect the decision of German leaders to boost defense spending through a historic change in the debt brake will prompt economic growth. Ahead of the German leaders meeting on the debt deal, a March 10-14 Reuters poll showed that economists had revised their economic projections for the Eurozone on the optimism over debt reforms to 1.3% for 2026 from 1.2% anticipated a month ago. A historic German debt restructuring plan has also increased Eurozone inflation expectations. This scenario is contrary to the European Central Bank’s (ECB) current monetary expansion stance. On Friday, ECB policymaker and Austrian Central Bank Governor Robert Holzmann supported keeping interest rates steady in the April policy meeting. Holzmann's endorsement for a pause in the policy-easing cycle was backed by the assumption that US President Trump’s tariffs and Germany’s defense spending have stemmed risks of a resurge in inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, increased hopes of a Russia-Ukraine truce have also improved the Euro’s appeal. Donald Trump is scheduled to meet Russian leader Vladimir Putin on Tuesday to discuss peace in Ukraine. Last week, Ukraine accepted a 30-day ceasefire deal after discussions with US leaders in Saudi Arabia. In the near term, the major risk for the Euro is a potential US-European Union (EU) tariff war. On Thursday, President Trump threatened to impose 200% tariffs on European alcohol after the EU proposed retaliatory tariffs on the US against a 25% blanket levy on steel and aluminum imported by the US. Technical Analysis: EUR/USD trades sideways around 1.0880 EUR/USD trades inside Friday’s trading range around 1.0880 on Monday. The long-term outlook of the major currency pair remains firm as it holds above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 1.0655. The pair strengthened after a decisive breakout above the December 6 high of 1.0630 last week. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) wobbles near 70.00, suggesting the strong bullish momentum is intact. Looking down, the December 6 high of 1.0630 will act as the major support zone for the pair. Conversely, the psychological level of 1.1000 will be a key barrier for the Euro bulls. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

10:01 Turkey Budget Balance fell from previous -139.26B to -310.1B in February
Turkey Budget Balance fell from previous -139.26B to -310.1B in February

10:01 Turkey Budget Balance: -310.01B (February) vs previous -139.26B
Turkey Budget Balance: -310.01B (February) vs previous -139.26B

09:31 EUR/GBP holds steady above 0.8400, upside potential appears due to German Debt Agreement
EUR/GBP remains stable around 0.8410 during early European trading hours on Monday, following gains in the previous session.

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The cross's upside potential is bolstered by support for the Euro (EUR) after Germany reached a deal on debt reform and a substantial increase in state spending. On Friday, incoming Chancellor Friedrich Merz secured an agreement with the Green and Social Democrat parties ahead of a crucial parliamentary vote on Tuesday to revise borrowing rules. If the proposal secures a two-thirds majority, the expanded spending plan could significantly boost the EUR/GBP cross. Meanwhile, European Central Bank (ECB) Vice President Luis de Guindos voiced concerns on Sunday, stating that President Trump's policies are creating greater economic uncertainty than the COVID-19 crisis, according to Bloomberg. Guindos noted that the new US administration appears less inclined toward multilateralism, which fosters international cooperation—an approach shift that he described as a major source of instability. Additionally, ECB Governing Council member and Banque de France Governor François Villeroy de Galhau emphasized the need for the Euro to strengthen its global influence. In an interview with *La Tribune Dimanche* over the weekend, he called for the establishment of a "powerful savings and investment union" to attract international investors to the Euro. The EUR/GBP cross is benefiting from a weaker Pound Sterling (GBP) following Friday’s disappointing UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report. The data showed an unexpected 0.1% month-over-month contraction in January, falling short of market expectations for a 0.1% expansion. This decline was primarily driven by weakness in the production sector. Last month, the Bank of England (BoE) lowered its first-quarter growth forecast to 0.1%, down from the 0.4% projection in November. Investors are now focused on the BoE’s monetary policy decision on Thursday, where interest rates are expected to remain unchanged at 4.5%. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

09:14 Forex Today: Markets remain calm to begin big central bank week
Here is what you need to know on Monday, March 17: Major currency pairs fluctuate in familiar ranges ahead of this week's highly-anticipated monetary policy announcements by major central banks, including the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ).

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In the second half of the day, the US economic calendar will feature the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index for March and Retail Sales data for February. After declining sharply in the first week of March, the US Dollar (USD) Index stabilized and closed the previous week with small losses. Early Monday, the USD Index moves sideways slightly below 104.00. Meanwhile, US stock index futures were last seen losing between 0.5% and 0.7%, reflecting a cautious market mood. US President Donald Trump reiterated early Monday that he will impose reciprocal and sectoral tariffs on April 2, adding that they have no intentions of making exemptions on steel and aluminum tariffs. US Dollar PRICE This month The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this month. US Dollar was the weakest against the Euro. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -4.37% -2.50% -0.52% -0.55% -1.56% -2.31% -1.67% EUR 4.37% 1.96% 4.05% 4.01% 2.94% 2.15% 2.83% GBP 2.50% -1.96% 2.02% 2.00% 0.95% 0.19% 0.84% JPY 0.52% -4.05% -2.02% -0.01% -1.05% -1.81% -1.16% CAD 0.55% -4.01% -2.00% 0.01% -1.03% -1.78% -1.14% AUD 1.56% -2.94% -0.95% 1.05% 1.03% -0.76% -0.11% NZD 2.31% -2.15% -0.19% 1.81% 1.78% 0.76% 0.65% CHF 1.67% -2.83% -0.84% 1.16% 1.14% 0.11% -0.65% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).EUR/USD closed marginally higher on Friday after posting losses for two consecutive days. In the European morning on Monday, the pair moves up and down in a narrow channel below 1.0900. During the Asian trading hours on Monday, the data from China showed that Retail Sales rose by 4% on a yearly basis in February. This reading followed the 3.7% increase recorded in January and came in line with the market expectation. In the same period, Industrial Production expanded by 5.9%, surpassing the market expectation of 5.3%. AUD/USD holds its ground on Monday and trades in positive territory above 0.6330.USD/CAD lost about 0.5% on Friday and closed the previous week virtually unchanged. The pair stays in a consolidation phase above 1.4350 early Monday. On Tuesday, markets will pay close attention to February Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from Canada.GBP/USD edged lower in the second half of last week but managed to stabilize above 1.2900. On Thursday, the Bank of England is expected to announce no changes to the monetary policy settings. Gold extended its weekly rally to a fresh record-high above $3,000 early Friday before retreating below this level amid profit-taking into the weekend. XAU/USD moves sideways at around $2,990 in the European morning on Monday.USD/JPY rose more than 0.5% on Friday and continued to stretch higher toward 149.00 at the weekly opening. The BoJ will release monetary policy decisions during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday. Central banks FAQs What does a central bank do? Central Banks have a key mandate which is making sure that there is price stability in a country or region. Economies are constantly facing inflation or deflation when prices for certain goods and services are fluctuating. Constant rising prices for the same goods means inflation, constant lowered prices for the same goods means deflation. It is the task of the central bank to keep the demand in line by tweaking its policy rate. For the biggest central banks like the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Bank of England (BoE), the mandate is to keep inflation close to 2%. What does a central bank do when inflation undershoots or overshoots its projected target? A central bank has one important tool at its disposal to get inflation higher or lower, and that is by tweaking its benchmark policy rate, commonly known as interest rate. On pre-communicated moments, the central bank will issue a statement with its policy rate and provide additional reasoning on why it is either remaining or changing (cutting or hiking) it. Local banks will adjust their savings and lending rates accordingly, which in turn will make it either harder or easier for people to earn on their savings or for companies to take out loans and make investments in their businesses. When the central bank hikes interest rates substantially, this is called monetary tightening. When it is cutting its benchmark rate, it is called monetary easing. Who decides on monetary policy and interest rates? A central bank is often politically independent. Members of the central bank policy board are passing through a series of panels and hearings before being appointed to a policy board seat. Each member in that board often has a certain conviction on how the central bank should control inflation and the subsequent monetary policy. Members that want a very loose monetary policy, with low rates and cheap lending, to boost the economy substantially while being content to see inflation slightly above 2%, are called ‘doves’. Members that rather want to see higher rates to reward savings and want to keep a lit on inflation at all time are called ‘hawks’ and will not rest until inflation is at or just below 2%. Is there a president or head of a central bank? Normally, there is a chairman or president who leads each meeting, needs to create a consensus between the hawks or doves and has his or her final say when it would come down to a vote split to avoid a 50-50 tie on whether the current policy should be adjusted. The chairman will deliver speeches which often can be followed live, where the current monetary stance and outlook is being communicated. A central bank will try to push forward its monetary policy without triggering violent swings in rates, equities, or its currency. All members of the central bank will channel their stance toward the markets in advance of a policy meeting event. A few days before a policy meeting takes place until the new policy has been communicated, members are forbidden to talk publicly. This is called the blackout period.

08:51 EUR/JPY Price Forecast: The cross keeps bullish vibe, first upside target emerges above 162.50
The EUR/JPY cross loses momentum to around 162.15 during the early European session on Monday.

08:31 India WPI Inflation registered at 2.38% above expectations (2.36%) in February
India WPI Inflation registered at 2.38% above expectations (2.36%) in February

07:34 USD/CHF attracts some sellers below 0.8850 amid safe-haven flows
The USD/CHF pair attracts some sellers to around 0.8845 during the early European session on Monday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}USD/CHF weakens to near 0.8845 in Monday’s early European session, losing 0.17% on the day. Economic uncertainty and geopolitical risks boost the safe-haven flows, supporting the Swiss Franc.The Fed is expected to hold its benchmark Federal Funds Rate at a range of 4.25% to 4.5% on Wednesday. The USD/CHF pair attracts some sellers to around 0.8845 during the early European session on Monday. US President Donald Trump's unpredictable trade policy and a series of weak US economic data weigh on the US Dollar (USD) against the Swiss Franc (CHF). Later on Monday, the US February Retail Sales data will be published.

Optimism that the Trump administration would boost the economy turned into concerns that his trade policies might spark a recession. Data released on Friday indicated that the US Consumer Sentiment Index fell to a nearly 2-1/2-year low in March, but inflation expectations rose amid concerns about the impact of Trump's sweeping tariffs, which have sparked a global trade war.

The US defense secretary said on Sunday that the United States will continue attacking Yemen's Houthis until they stop attacks on shipping as the Iran-aligned group threatened to escalate in response to deadly US strikes the day before.

The escalating trade war between the US and many of its major trading partners, fears about the impact on economies across the world and rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could boost the CHF, a safe-haven currency and act as a headwind for the pair.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) is widely anticipated to keep its interest rate steady at its March meeting on Wednesday. Fed officials, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell, emphasized that they're taking a wait-and-see approach to interest rates since so many economic policies are up in the air. Investors have priced in two quarter-point rate cuts this year starting in June or July, with a high likelihood of a third by year-end. However, any surprise hawkish comments from the Fed policymakers could lift the Greenback in the near term. Swiss Franc FAQs What key factors drive the Swiss Franc? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone. Why is the Swiss Franc considered a safe-haven currency? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in. How do decisions of the Swiss National Bank impact the Swiss Franc? The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF. How does economic data influence the value of the Swiss Franc? Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate. How does the Eurozone monetary policy affect the Swiss Franc? As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.

07:32 FX option expiries for Mar 17 NY cut
EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.0600 12.5b 1.0760 580m 1.0900 735m 1.1000 587m GBP/USD: GBP amounts 1.2745 509m 1.3200 600m USD/JPY: USD amounts 147.00 672m 147.50 828m 149.00 1.1b AUD/USD: AUD amounts 0.6345 473m USD/CAD: USD amounts 1.4275 559m 1.4300 407m EUR/GBP: EUR amounts 0.8435 879m 0.8500 782m .

EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.0600 12.5b 1.0760 580m 1.0900 735m 1.1000 587m GBP/USD: GBP amounts 1.2745 509m 1.3200 600m USD/JPY: USD amounts 147.00 672m 147.50 828m 149.00 1.1b AUD/USD: AUD amounts 0.6345 473m USD/CAD: USD amounts 1.4275 559m 1.4300 407m EUR/GBP: EUR amounts 0.8435 879m 0.8500 782m

07:05 Gold price sits near record high, continues to draw support from the global flight to safety
Gold price (XAU/USD) struggles to attract any meaningful buyers on Monday, though it remains close to the all-time top – levels beyond the $3,000 psychological mark touched on Friday.

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The USD hangs near a multi-month low and further underpins the commodity ahead of the Fed.Gold price (XAU/USD) struggles to attract any meaningful buyers on Monday, though it remains close to the all-time top – levels beyond the $3,000 psychological mark touched on Friday. Against the backdrop of concerns about escalating trade tensions and a global trade war, geopolitical tensions continue to act as a tailwind for the safe-haven bullion. Apart from this, bets for more interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) further underpin demand for the non-yielding yellow metal. Meanwhile, the prospects for further policy easing by the US central bank keep the US Dollar (USD) depressed near a multi-month low touched last week, which, in turn, lends additional support to the Gold price. That said, a generally positive tone around the Asian equity markets, bolstered by the optimism over China's stimulus measures announced over the weekend, cap gains for the XAU/USD. Traders also seem reluctant ahead of a two-day FOMC policy meeting starting on Tuesday. Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price bulls retain control amid trade jitters, geopolitical risks and dovish Fed expectations US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said late Sunday that he is not worried about recent market downturns because corrections are healthy and normal. Commenting on the chance of a recession, Bessent added that there are no guarantees. This, along with worries about the potential economic fallout from US President Donald Trump's trade tariffs, continues to act as a tailwind for the safe-haven Gold price. On the geopolitical front, Houthi leader Abdul Malik al-Houthi, following deadly US airstrikes, said on Sunday that his militants would target US ships in the Red Sea as long as the US continues its attacks on Yemen. In response, the US defense secretary said on Sunday that the US will continue attacking Yemen's Houthis until they stop attacks on shipping, raising the risk of a further escalation of conflict in the region. Meanwhile, an Israeli drone attack in northern Gaza killed at least nine people, including three journalists on Saturday. Israel’s military said that its forces have intervened to thwart threats by terrorists approaching its troops or planting bombs since the January 19 ceasefire took effect. The Israeli military added that six men killed in the strike were identified as members of the armed wings of Hamas. Market participants have been pricing in the possibility that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates several times this year amid worries about an economic downturn on the back of the Trump administration's aggressive trade policies. This comes on top of softer US inflation figures released last week and signs of a cooling labor market, supporting prospects for further policy easing by the US central bank. In fact, the Fed funds futures suggest that the Fed could lower borrowing costs by 25 basis points each at the June, July, and October monetary policy meetings. The expectations were further reaffirmed by the University of Michigan Surveys on Friday, which showed that the Consumer Sentiment Index plunged to a nearly 2-1/2-year low in March. This keeps the US Dollar bulls on the defensive near a multi-month low. China’s State Council announced a special action plan on Sunday aimed at stimulating domestic consumption and introduced measures to increase household incomes. Adding to this, China’s Shenzhen eased its housing provident fund loan policies to stimulate the property market and clear the overhang. This, in turn, boosts investors' confidence and caps any meaningful gains for the safe-haven XAU/USD pair. Traders now look forward to Monday's US economic docket – featuring the release of monthly Retail Sales and the Empire State Manufacturing Index – for some impetus later during the North American session. The focus, however, will remain glued to the crucial FOMC decision on Wednesday, which will influence the USD price dynamics and provide a fresh directional impetus to the non-yielding yellow metal. Gold price needs to consolidate before the next leg up; downside potential seems limited amid a bullish technical setup From a technical perspective, last week's breakout through the $2,928-2,930 horizontal resistance and a subsequent move was seen as a fresh trigger for bulls. That said, the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains close to the overbought territory and is holding back traders from placing fresh bullish bets around the Gold price. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for some near-term consolidation or a modest pullback before the next leg up. Nevertheless, the broader setup suggests that the path of least resistance for the XAU/USD pair remains to the upside and supports prospects for an extension of a well-established uptrend witnessed over the past three months or so. Meanwhile, any meaningful corrective slide might now attract fresh buyers near the $2,956 resistance breakpoint, below which the Gold price could drop to the $2,930-2,928 horizontal zone. The latter should act as a key pivotal point. A convincing break below might prompt some technical selling and pave the way for deeper losses. The XAU/USD pair might then accelerate the fall towards the $2,900 round figure en route to last week's swing low, around the $2,880 region. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

06:59 AUD/JPY rises above 94.00 as risk sentiment improves amid China’s stimulus measures
AUD/JPY continues to gain ground for the second successive day, trading around 94.20 during the Asian hours on Monday.

06:52 US President Trump: Will impose reciprocal tariffs on April 2, announce on Russia-Ukraine talks
US President Donald Trump said early Monday that he “will impose reciprocal and sectoral tariffs on April 2.” Additional quotes No intention of making exemptions on steel, aluminum tariffs.

06:36 India Gold price today: Gold steadies, according to FXStreet data
Gold prices remained broadly unchanged in India on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

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The price for Gold stood at 8,337.11 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, broadly stable compared with the INR 8,336.70 it cost on Friday. The price for Gold was broadly steady at INR 97,240.46 per tola from INR 97,237.68 per tola on friday. Unit measure Gold Price in INR 1 Gram 8,337.11 10 Grams 83,369.28 Tola 97,240.46 Troy Ounce 259,313.30 2025 Gold Forecast Guide [PDF] Download your free copy of the 2025 Gold Forecast FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

06:33 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD holds below $34.00 as traders await US Retail Sales release
The Silver price (XAG/USD) edges lower to around $33.80 after reaching its highest level since October 31, 2024, during the Asian trading hours on Monday.

06:29 GBP/USD Price Forecast: Moves below 1.2950 toward nine-day EMA
The GBP/USD pair extends its losing streak for the third successive session, trading around 1.2940 during the Asian hours on Monday.

06:16 Indonesia Trade Balance above forecasts ($2.45B) in February: Actual ($3.12B)
Indonesia Trade Balance above forecasts ($2.45B) in February: Actual ($3.12B)

06:16 Indonesia Imports registered at 2.3% above expectations (0.6%) in February
Indonesia Imports registered at 2.3% above expectations (0.6%) in February

06:04 Indonesia Exports above expectations (9.1%) in February: Actual (14.05%)
Indonesia Exports above expectations (9.1%) in February: Actual (14.05%)

05:37 WTI remains solid around $67.50 due to China’s stimulus measures, Middle-East tensions
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price extends its winning streak for a second consecutive session, trading around $67.40 per barrel during Asian market hours on Monday.

05:11 USD/CAD holds steady above mid-1.4300s; seems vulnerable amid bearish USD
The USD/CAD pair kicks off the new week on a subdued note and oscillates in a narrow band above mid-1.4300s, or the lower end of a one-week-old trading range, during the Asian session.

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Rising bets that the Fed will cut rates several times in 2025 weigh on the buck.The USD/CAD pair kicks off the new week on a subdued note and oscillates in a narrow band above mid-1.4300s, or the lower end of a one-week-old trading range, during the Asian session. Meanwhile, the fundamental backdrop suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices is to the downside. Against the backdrop of positive news coming out of the US-Canada trade talk last week, a bullish spike in Crude Oil prices is seen underpinning the commodity-linked Loonie. In fact, the commodity touches a two-week high in reaction to the risk of a further escalation of tensions in the Red Sea, especially after the US vowed to continue strikes against Yemen’s Houthis until their attacks ceased. This, along with the underlying bearish sentiment surrounding the US Dollar (USD), validates the near-term negative outlook for the USD/CAD pair. The USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, languishes near a multi-month low amid worries that US President Donald Trump's tariffs and retaliatory measures from other countries could hurt the US economy. Adding to this, softer-than-expected US inflation and signs of a cooling US labor market might force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates several times this year. This keeps the USD bulls on the defensive and should further contribute to capping any attempted recovery for the USD/CAD pair. Traders now look forward to the US economic docket – featuring the release of monthly Retail Sales and the Empire State Manufacturing Index – for some impetus later during the North American session. The focus, however, will remain glued to the outcome of the highly-anticipated two-day FOMC policy meeting on Wednesday. This will play a key role in influencing the USD and provide a fresh directional impetus to the USD/CAD pair. In the meantime, bears might wait for weakness below the 1.4350 support before placing fresh bets. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

05:00 South Korea Money Supply Growth increased to 5.7% in January from previous 5.1%
South Korea Money Supply Growth increased to 5.7% in January from previous 5.1%

04:54 NZD/USD rises above 0.5750 as China’s Retail Sales YoY increase in January-February
NZD/USD continues its upward momentum for the second consecutive day, trading around 0.5760 during Asian hours on Monday.

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China’s Retail Sales grew 4.0% YoY in January-February, improving from December’s 3.7% rise. The US Dollar remains under pressure as the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index declined in March.NZD/USD continues its upward momentum for the second consecutive day, trading around 0.5760 during Asian hours on Monday. The pair strengthens following the release of China’s economic data, with Retail Sales increasing by 4.0% year-over-year in January-February, up from December’s 3.7% growth. Additionally, industrial production expanded by 5.9% YoY, surpassing the 5.3% forecast but slightly below the previous 6.2% reading. Positive economic indicators from China tend to support the NZD, given China’s role as a key trading partner for New Zealand. After the release of China’s high-impact February activity data, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shared its economic outlook during a press conference on Monday. While noting the economy’s resilience, the NBS highlighted increasing external challenges and a more complex global environment. Furthermore, the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) gained support after China introduced a special action plan over the weekend to stimulate consumption. The initiative includes wage increases, measures to boost household spending, and efforts to stabilize stock and real estate markets, improving overall market sentiment in the region. On the domestic front, New Zealand’s Business NZ Performance of Services Index (PSI) declined to 49.1 in February from 50.4 in January, indicating a return to contraction in the services sector. The NZD/USD pair also advanced as the US Dollar (USD) weakened ahead of the upcoming US Retail Sales data release in the North American session. The Greenback faced pressure after the University of Michigan (UoM) reported a drop in its preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index for March on Friday, falling to 57.9—its lowest level since November 2022—from 64.7 previously. This figure also missed the consensus estimate of 63.1. Economic Indicator Retail Sales (YoY) The Retail Sales data, released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China on a monthly basis, measures the value of goods sold by retailers in China. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Percent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales, with the YoY reading comparing sales values in the reference month with the same month a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Renminbi (CNY), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Last release: Mon Mar 17, 2025 02:00 Frequency: MonthlyActual: 4%Consensus: 4%Previous: 3.7%Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

04:38 Japanese Yen consolidates against USD; bullish bias remains amid divergent BoJ-Fed expectations
The Japanese Yen (JPY) seesaws between tepid gains/minor losses against its American counterpart during the Asian session on Monday amid mixed fundamental cues.

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The Japanese Yen (JPY) seesaws between tepid gains/minor losses against its American counterpart during the Asian session on Monday amid mixed fundamental cues. The optimism led by China's stimulus measures announced over the weekend is evident from a generally positive tone around the Asian equity markets. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor undermining the safe-haven JPY. Any meaningful JPY depreciation, however, remains elusive in the wake of the divergent Federal Reserve (Fed)-Bank of Japan (BoJ) policy expectations. Furthermore, geopolitical risks and worries about the economic fallout from US President Donald Trump's tariffs support the JPY. Apart from this, the underlying bearish sentiment surrounding the US Dollar (USD) should cap the USD/JPY pair. Traders might also refrain from placing aggressive directional bets and opt to move to the sidelines ahead of this week's key central bank event risks – the BoJ and the Fed policy decisions on Wednesday. This warrants caution for the JPY bears and positioning for an extension of the USD/JPY pair's recent bounce from a multi-month trough, around the 146.55-146.50 area touched last Tuesday. Japanese Yen continues to draw support from BoJ rate hike bets China’s State Council announced a special action plan on Sunday aimed at stimulating domestic consumption and introduced measures to increase household incomes. Adding to this, China’s Shenzhen eased its housing provident fund loan policies to stimulate the property market and clear the overhang. This, in turn, boosts investors' confidence and undermines the safe-haven Japanese Yen during the Asian session on Monday. The results of Japan's annual spring labor negotiations, which concluded on Friday, showed that companies offered an average wage hike above 5% at least for the second year running to help workers cope with inflation and address labour shortages. Higher wages are expected to boost consumer spending and contribute to rising inflation, which gives the Bank of Japan a fresh reason to keep raising interest rates. Meanwhile, traders continue to ramp up their bets that the Federal Reserve will have to lower interest rates several times this year amid the rising possibility of an economic downturn on the back of US President Donald Trump's trade tariffs. The expectations were reaffirmed by the University of Michigan Surveys on Friday, which showed that the Consumer Sentiment Index plunged to a nearly 2-1/2-year low in March. This comes on top of softer US inflation figures released last week and signs of a cooling labor market, suggesting that the US central bank could resume its policy-easing cycle in June. Moreover, market participants are currently pricing in the possibility of two more 25 basis points Fed rate cut moves each at the July and October monetary policy meetings, which keeps the US Dollar depressed near a multi-month low. Houthi leader Abdul Malik al-Houthi said on Sunday that his militants would target US ships in the Red Sea as long as the US continues its attacks on Yemen. This comes a day after deadly US airstrikes, which the Houthi-run health ministry said killed at least 53 people. In response, the US defense secretary said on Sunday that the US will continue attacking Yemen's Houthis until they stop attacks on shipping. According to Palestinian media, an Israeli drone attack on Saturday in northern Gaza killed at least nine people, including three journalists. Israel’s military said that its forces have intervened to thwart threats by terrorists approaching its troops or planting bombs since the January 19 ceasefire took effect. The Israeli military said that six men – identified as members of the armed wings of Hamas – were killed in the strike. Traders now look forward to the US economic docket – featuring the release of monthly Retail Sales and the Empire State Manufacturing Index – for some impetus later during the North American session. The focus, however, will remain glued to the crucial BoJ decision on Wednesday. This, along with the outcomes of a two-day FOMC meeting, should provide a fresh directional impetus to the USD/JPY pair. USD/JPY struggles to find acceptance above the 149.00 mark From a technical perspective, the recent repeated failures to find acceptance above the 149.00 mark and negative oscillators on the daily chart favor bearish traders. However, a sustained strength beyond the said handle, leading to a subsequent break through last week's swing high around the 149.20 area, might trigger a short-covering rally and lift the USD/JPY pair to the 150.00 psychological mark. The momentum could extend further towards the 150.65-150.70 zone en route to the 151.00 mark and the monthly peak, around the 151.30 region. On the flip side, the 148.25 area might protect the immediate downside ahead of the 148.00 mark. Some follow-through selling below the 147.75-147.70 horizontal zone could make the USD/JPY pair vulnerable to accelerate the fall towards the 147.00 mark before eventually dropping to the 146.55-146.50 region or the lowest level since October touched last week. A convincing break below the latter will be seen as a fresh trigger for bears and pave the way for further losses. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

04:25 USD/INR weakens ahead of Indian WPI inflation, US Retail Sales data
The Indian Rupee (INR) strengthens on Monday. The concerns about slowing growth in the US economy from US President Donald Trump administration's trade policies weigh on the Greenback and provide some support to the INR.

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Looking ahead, India’s February Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation will be released later on Monday. On the US docket, Retail Sales data for February will offer cues on US consumer sentiment and whether policy uncertainty has prompted a slowdown in spending. Investors will closely watch the US Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision on Wednesday, which is expected to keep interest rates unchanged. The primary focus will be on the Fed's policy guidance. Indian Rupee trades with mild gains amid multiple headwinds The Indian Rupee is likely to face strong resistance around 86.50 while finding support in the 87.40-50 zone, said Dilip Parmar, a foreign exchange research analyst at HDFC Securities. India’s economic indicators for February reflect a moderation in inflation, improved industrial output and strong corporate earnings, according to the latest SBI Ecowrap report. India is projected to be the world's third-largest economy by 2028 as it becomes the world's most sought-after consumer market and gains share in global output, driven by macro stability influenced policy and better infrastructure, said Morgan Stanley. The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment Index showed that the index reached its lowest since November 2022, falling to 57.9 from 64.7 in the previous reading. This reading came in below the market consensus of 63.1. The UoM five-year Consumer Inflation Expectation jumped to 3.9% in March, compared to 3.5% in February. Markets widely expect the Fed will stay on hold when it concludes its two-day meeting on Wednesday. The markets have priced in nearly a 75% odds of a quarter-point reduction to the policy rate by June, according to the CME FedWatch tool. USD/INR remains capped within a symmetrical triangle The Indian Rupee trades stronger on the day. The USD/INR pair has consolidated near the lower limit of a symmetrical triangle on the daily chart. The constructive view of the pair remains in place, with the price holding above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). However, further consolidation cannot be ruled out as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands above the midline, suggesting neutral momentum in the near term.

The immediate resistance level for USD/INR emerges at 87.24, the upper boundary of a symmetrical triangle. Sustained gain above this level could pave the way to 87.53, the high of February 28, en route to an all-time high of 88.00.

On the flip side, a decisive break below the low of March 6 and the lower limit of the triangle pattern at 86.86 could expose 86.48, the low of February 21. Further south, the additional downside filter to watch is 86.14, the low of January 27. Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.

04:24 China’s NBS: Economy remains resilient but external environment becoming more complex and severe
Following the publication of the high-impact China’s February activity data, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) expressed its outlook on the economy during its press conference on Monday.

04:16 Australian Dollar holds gains following China’s economic figures
The Australian Dollar (AUD) remains steady against the US Dollar (USD) following the release of China’s economic data on Monday.

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span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Australian Dollar remains steady following the release of key economic data from China on Monday.China's Retail Sales rose 4% YoY in January-February, up from December’s 3.7% increase.Market expectations suggest that the Fed will keep its current policy stance unchanged on Wednesday.The Australian Dollar (AUD) remains steady against the US Dollar (USD) following the release of China’s economic data on Monday. Additionally, the AUD/USD pair gained ground as the US Dollar (USD) edges lower ahead of Retail Sales data release later in the North American session. China's retail sales grew by 4% year-over-year in January-February, improving from December’s 3.7% increase. Meanwhile, industrial production rose 5.9% YoY during the same period, exceeding the 5.3% forecast but slightly lower than the previous reading of 6.2%. The AUD could gain ground as China unveiled a special action plan over the weekend to revive consumption, lifting market sentiment across the region. The plan includes measures to increase wages, boost household spending, and stabilize stock and real estate markets. Any positive developments surrounding the Chinese stimulus plan could boost the Australian Dollar, as China is a major trading partner to Australia. The AUD/USD pair may receive support from improving risk sentiment amid reports of a potential ceasefire discussion between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin this week. Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, stated on Sunday that he expects the two leaders to speak, adding that Putin “accepts the philosophy” of Trump’s ceasefire and peace terms, according to The Guardian. Australian Dollar gains ground amid improved risk sentiment The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD against six major currencies, edges lower and is trading around 103.70 at the time of writing. However, the Greenback faced headwinds after the University of Michigan (UoM) reported a decline in its preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index for March on Friday, falling to 57.9—the lowest since November 2022—from the previous reading of 64.7. This figure also came in below the consensus estimate of 63.1. Meanwhile, the UoM five-year Consumer Inflation Expectation jumped to 3.9% in March, compared to 3.5% in February. Markets widely anticipate that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain its current policy stance when it concludes its two-day meeting on Wednesday. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders have priced in nearly a 75% probability of a quarter-point rate cut by June. On Sunday, the Houthis declared that they had launched an assault involving 18 ballistic and cruise missiles, along with drones, aimed at the USS Harry S. Truman aircraft carrier and its escorting warships in the northern Red Sea. Meanwhile, the US defense secretary stated that the United States would continue striking Yemen's Houthis until they cease attacks on shipping, as the Iran-aligned group vowed to escalate in retaliation for deadly US strikes the previous day. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said late Sunday that he was not concerned about the stock market despite multiple declines triggered by Trump's tariff threats. "I've been in the investment business for 35 years, and I can tell you that corrections are healthy. They're normal. What's not healthy is a market that only moves straight up," Bessent stated. US President Donald Trump’s decision to uphold a 25% tariff on Australian aluminum and steel exports, valued at nearly $1 billion. This move adds strain to Australia’s trade outlook, impacting major exports. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese confirmed that Australia will not impose reciprocal tariffs on the US, emphasizing that retaliatory measures would only raise costs for Australian consumers and fuel inflation. Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar maintains position above 0.6300, nine-day EMA The AUD/USD pair is hovering around 0.6340 on Monday, maintaining a bullish outlook after reclaiming its position within the ascending channel on the daily chart. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has also rebounded above 50, further supporting the positive momentum. Immediate support is seen at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 0.6309, followed by the 50-day EMA at 0.6306 and the lower boundary of the ascending channel. A decisive break below this critical support zone could weaken the bullish bias, exposing the AUD/USD pair to downward pressure toward the six-week low of 0.6187, recorded on March 5. On the upside, the AUD/USD pair may attempt to retest the three-month high of 0.6408, last seen on February 21. A breakout above this level would reinforce the bullish bias, potentially driving the pair toward the ascending channel’s upper boundary near 0.6470. AUD/USD: Daily Chart Australian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Canadian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.02% 0.02% -0.07% -0.04% 0.00% -0.22% -0.07% EUR 0.02% -0.08% -0.47% -0.01% -0.11% -0.21% -0.07% GBP -0.02% 0.08% -0.06% -0.15% -0.05% -0.14% -0.07% JPY 0.07% 0.47% 0.06% 0.04% -0.13% -0.09% -0.12% CAD 0.04% 0.01% 0.15% -0.04% -0.16% -0.18% -0.58% AUD -0.00% 0.11% 0.05% 0.13% 0.16% -0.07% 0.06% NZD 0.22% 0.21% 0.14% 0.09% 0.18% 0.07% 0.13% CHF 0.07% 0.07% 0.07% 0.12% 0.58% -0.06% -0.13% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). Economic Indicator Retail Sales (YoY) The Retail Sales data, released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China on a monthly basis, measures the value of goods sold by retailers in China. Changes in Retail Sales are widely followed as an indicator of consumer spending. Percent changes reflect the rate of changes in such sales, with the YoY reading comparing sales values in the reference month with the same month a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Renminbi (CNY), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Last release: Mon Mar 17, 2025 02:00 Frequency: MonthlyActual: 4%Consensus: 4%Previous: 3.7%Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

04:03 China’s January-February Retail Sales rise 4%, Industrial Production up 5.9%
China’s January-February Retail Sales increased by 4% year-over-year (YoY) vs.

04:00 China Industrial Production (YoY) registered at 5.9% above expectations (5.3%) in February
China Industrial Production (YoY) registered at 5.9% above expectations (5.3%) in February

04:00 China Retail Sales (YoY) meets forecasts (4%) in February
China Retail Sales (YoY) meets forecasts (4%) in February

04:00 China Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (YoY) came in at 4.1%, above expectations (3.6%) in February
China Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (YoY) came in at 4.1%, above expectations (3.6%) in February

03:30 China House Price Index increased to -4.9% in February from previous -5%
China House Price Index increased to -4.9% in February from previous -5%

03:30 China House Price Index : -4.8% (February) vs -5%
China House Price Index : -4.8% (February) vs -5%

03:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1688 vs. 7.1738 previous
On Monday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.1688 as compared to Friday's fix of 7.1738 and 7.2199 Reuters estimate.

03:11 Houthis attack US warships in response to airstrikes
The Houthis announced on Sunday that they launched an attack comprising 18 ballistic and cruise missiles as well as drones, targeting the USS Harry S Truman aircraft carrier and its accompanying warships in the northern Red Sea.

03:00 EUR/USD holds ground below 1.0900 ahead of US Retail Sales data
EUR/USD remains steady around 1.0880 during Asian trading hours, with the US Dollar (USD) holding firm ahead of Monday’s Retail Sales data release.

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However, the Greenback faced headwinds after the University of Michigan (UoM) reported a decline in its preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index for March on Friday, falling to 57.9—the lowest since November 2022—from the previous reading of 64.7. This figure also came in below the consensus estimate of 63.1. Markets widely anticipate that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain its current policy stance when it concludes its two-day meeting on Wednesday. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders have priced in nearly a 75% probability of a quarter-point rate cut by June. The EUR/USD pair could gain support from improving risk sentiment amid reports of a potential ceasefire discussion between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin this week. Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, stated on Sunday that he expects the two leaders to speak, adding that Putin “accepts the philosophy” of Trump’s ceasefire and peace terms, according to The Guardian. Last week, the US and Ukraine proposed a 30-day ceasefire to Russia, with Putin expressing support for the initiative. The Euro (EUR) strengthened following news that Germany had reached an agreement on a debt overhaul and a substantial increase in state spending. Friedrich Merz, the incoming chancellor, secured a deal with the Green and Social Democrat parties on Friday, ahead of a crucial parliamentary vote on Tuesday to reform borrowing rules. If the proposal garners a two-thirds majority, the increased spending plan could provide a significant boost to the EUR/USD pair. Meanwhile, European Central Bank (ECB) Vice President Luis de Guindos expressed concerns on Sunday, stating that President Trump's policies are generating greater economic uncertainty than during the COVID-19 crisis, according to Bloomberg. Guindos noted that the new US administration appears less inclined toward multilateralism, which fosters cooperation across jurisdictions to address global challenges—a shift that he described as a major source of instability. Additionally, ECB Governing Council member and Banque de France Governor François Villeroy de Galhau emphasized the need for the Euro to play a more prominent role on the global stage. In an interview with La Tribune Dimanche over the weekend, Galhau called for the creation of a "powerful savings and investment union" to attract international investors to the Euro. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

02:57 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD holds positive ground near $3,000 on safe-haven demand
Gold price (XAU/USD) remains strong near $2,985 after retracing from an all-time high of $3,005 during the early Asian session on Monday.

02:53 GBP/USD consolidates below mid-1.2900s; downside potential seems limited
The GBP/USD pair kicks off the new week on a subdued note and oscillates in a narrow trading band, around the 1.2930 region during the Asian session.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}GBP/USD struggles to gain any meaningful traction on Monday amid mixed fundamental cues.A bearish USD lends support to the pair, though Friday’s dismal UK GDP print caps the upside.Traders also seem reluctant to place aggressive bets ahead of the Fed/BoE meetings this week.The GBP/USD pair kicks off the new week on a subdued note and oscillates in a narrow trading band, around the 1.2930 region during the Asian session. The fundamental backdrop, however, warrants some caution before positioning for any meaningful corrective pullback for spot prices from a four-month peak, around the 1.2990 area touched last Wednesday. The US Dollar (USD) languishes near a multi-month low amid worries that US President Donald Trump's tariffs and retaliatory measures from other countries could hurt the US economy. Adding to this, softer then expected US inflation and signs of cooling US labor market might force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates several times this year. This, in turn, keeps the USD bulls on the defensive and acts as a tailwind for the GBP/USD pair. The bets for further policy easing by the Fed were reaffirmed by the University of Michigan Surveys released on Friday, which showed that Consumer Sentiment Index plunged to a nearly 2-1/2-year low in March. Moreover, inflation expectations soared amid worries that Trump's aggressive economic policies would boost prices. Apart from this, a generally positive tone around the Asian equity markets is seen undermining the safe-haven Greenback. The British Pound (GBP), on the other hand, struggles to lure buyers in the wake of Friday's dismal domestic data, which showed that the UK economy unexpectedly contracted by 0.1% in January. Investors, however, seem convinced that the Bank of England (BoE) will cut rates more slowly than other central banks, including the Fed. This, in turn, favors the GBP bulls and suggests that the path of least resistance for the GBP/USD pair is to the upside. Traders now look to the US economic docket, featuring the release of monthly Retail Sales and the Empire State Manufacturing Index, for some impetus later during the North American session. The focus, however, will remain glued to the key central bank event risks – the outcome of the highly-anticipated two-day FOMC monetary policy meeting on Wednesday, which will be followed by the BoE policy meeting on Thursday. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

02:46 ECB's Villeroy: Euro should take on a more important role internationally
European Central Bank Governing Council member and Governor of the Banque de France, Francois Villeroy de Galhau, said over the weekend that the Euro should take on a more important role internationally.

02:11 US envoy says Trump and Putin to hold call on ceasefire deal soon
Donald Trump’s envoy Steve Witkoff said on Sunday that he expected the US President to speak with Russian President Vladimir Putin this week, saying that Putin “accepts the philosophy” of Trump’s ceasefire and peace terms, per the Guardian.

02:02 United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index (YoY) declined to 1% in March from previous 1.4%
United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index (YoY) declined to 1% in March from previous 1.4%

02:01 United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index (MoM) climbed from previous 0.5% to 1.1% in March
United Kingdom Rightmove House Price Index (MoM) climbed from previous 0.5% to 1.1% in March

01:47 ECB's de Guindos: Uncertainty now higher than during Covid
European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos said late Sunday that US President Donald Trump’s policies are causing more uncertainty for the economy than there was during COVID, per Bloomberg.

01:33 US Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent: Correction in the markets is healthy
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said late Sunday that he was not worried about the stock market, which has slumped multiple times amid US President Donald Trump’s tariff threats.

01:22 AUD/USD gains ground above 0.6300 ahead of Chinese data
The AUD/USD pair gathers strength to near 0.6325 during the early Asian session on Monday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}AUD/USD edges higher to around 0.6325 in Monday’s early Asian session.China has launched special initiatives to boost consumption and raise incomes. Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index slumped in March to the lowest since 2022. The AUD/USD pair gathers strength to near 0.6325 during the early Asian session on Monday. The uptick of the pair is bolstered by the weaker US Dollar (USD) and special plans from the Chinese government to boost consumption and raise incomes. Traders brace for the Chinese economic data later on Monday, including Retail Sales and Industrial Production. Also, the US February Retail Sales will be released on the same day.

On Sunday, China announced to boost consumption by raising people’s incomes as a key driver of economic growth. The measures will include stabilizing the stock and property markets, and offering incentives to increase the country’s birth rate, as the government seeks to alleviate the deflationary pressures afflicting the economy.

Additionally, the government will include boosting employment and raising the minimum wage, as well as strictly enforcing the paid annual leave system. Any positive developments surrounding the Chinese stimulus plan could boost the China-proxy Australian Dollar (AUD), as China is a major trading partner to Australia.

On the USD’s front, the University of Michigan (UoM) published its preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index reading for March, showing that the figure fell to 57.9, the lowest since November 2022, from 64.7 in the previous reading. This reading came in below the consensus estimate of 63.1. Meanwhile, the UoM five-year Consumer Inflation Expectation jumped to 3.9% in March, compared to 3.5% in February.

Markets widely expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) will stay on hold when it concludes its two-day meeting on Wednesday. The financial markets have priced in nearly a 75% chance of a quarter-point reduction to the Fed's policy rate by June, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

00:58 China launches special initiatives to boost consumption and raise incomes
China has vowed to revive consumption by raising people’s incomes as a key driver of economic growth, the official Xinhua News Agency reported on Sunday.

00:44 China’s Shenzhen announces eased housing finance rules
On Sunday, China’s local government in the southern city of Shenzhen will further relax policy on housing provident fund loans as Shenzhen is looking to spur property sales further and help clear the overhang, per Bloomberg.

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23:22 AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Bulls step in and steal the 20-day SMA AUD/JPY surged on Monday ahead of the Asian session, gaining traction and trading near the 95.30 zone after a strong bullish advance.

22:37 AUD/USD rallies on Chinese stimulus measures The AUD/USD pair surged higher on Monday, benefiting from improved risk sentiment following China’s monetary stimulus measures.

21:58 Gold price nears $3,000 as US economy shows signs of cooling Gold price rises on Monday late in the North American session, hoover near the $3,000 mark for the second straight day, after data from the United States (US) shows the economy is cooling.

21:24 Forex Today: Canadian inflation and German morale take centre stage The Greenback extended Friday’s bearish tone, hovering near the lower end of its recent range amid persistent concerns over a potential US economic slowdown and rising prudence pre-FOMC.

20:33 US Dollar remains pressured ahead of key events The US Dollar remains under pressure at the start of the week, drifting lower as investors digest softer-than-expected Retail Sales data and brace for key political developments.

19:54 Mexican Peso rallies for fourth day as US markets rebound The Mexican Peso extended its gains against the US Dollar for the fourth consecutive trading day as Mexican financial markets remained closed due to a national holiday.

19:12 Dow Jones Industrial Average shrugs off data, continues to recover footing The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) climbed around 300 points on Monday as equities continue to claw back ground after a recent downturn that saw major indexes inch toward correction territory.

18:29 EUR/USD Price Analysis: Bulls regain ground but momentum shows signs of exhaustion EUR/USD extended gains on Monday after the European session, climbing toward the 1.0910 area as bulls made a comeback following a brief corrective phase.

17:26 GBP/USD nears multi-week highs, eyes on 1.3000 The Pound Sterling advances as the Greenback weakens, testing last week's high of 1.2987.

16:23 USD/JPY rises to near 149.00 as Yen weakens, BoJ-Fed policy in focus The USD/JPY pair moves higher to near 149.00 in Monday’s North American session.

16:02 USD/JPY to trade at 145.00 in the end of the year – Rabobank USD/JPY has been on a downtrend since early January, Rabobank's FX analyst Jane Foley reports.

16:00 United States NAHB Housing Market Index came in at 39, below expectations (42) in March United States NAHB Housing Market Index came in at 39, below expectations (42) in March

15:37 AUD/USD advances to near 0.6350 amid strength in Australian Dollar The AUD/USD pair surges to near 0.6350 in North American trading hours on Monday, the highest level seen in over a week.

14:55 GBP: Markets anticipate BoE hold decision Thursday – Scotiabank Pound Sterling (GBP) retains a firm undertone. Investors are looking ahead to this week’s BoE policy decision and expecting a hold amid still sticky UK price trends, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

14:50 CAD firms modestly on the day – Scotiabank The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is little changed over the weekend, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

14:37 US Dollar flat at start of another pivotal week in markets The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, could see an outburst in volatility this week amid geopolitical developments and the Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting.

14:36 US Retail Sales rise by 0.2% in February vs. 0.7% expected Retail Sales in the United States (US) rose by 0.2% in February to $722.7 billion, the US Census Bureau announced on Monday.

14:30 United States NY Empire State Manufacturing Index came in at -20 below forecasts (-1.9) in March United States NY Empire State Manufacturing Index came in at -20 below forecasts (-1.9) in March

14:30 United States Retail Sales (YoY): 3.1% (February) vs previous 4.2% United States Retail Sales (YoY): 3.1% (February) vs previous 4.2%

14:30 United States Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) below forecasts (0.5%) in February: Actual (0.3%) United States Retail Sales ex Autos (MoM) below forecasts (0.5%) in February: Actual (0.3%)

14:30 United States Retail Sales Control Group climbed from previous -0.8% to 1% in February United States Retail Sales Control Group climbed from previous -0.8% to 1% in February

14:30 United States Retail Sales (MoM) came in at 0.2%, below expectations (0.7%) in February United States Retail Sales (MoM) came in at 0.2%, below expectations (0.7%) in February

14:30 Canada Foreign Portfolio Investment in Canadian Securities below expectations ($17.44B) in January: Actual ($7.91B) Canada Foreign Portfolio Investment in Canadian Securities below expectations ($17.44B) in January: Actual ($7.91B)

14:30 Canada Canadian Portfolio Investment in Foreign Securities fell from previous $3.77B to $-3.15B in January Canada Canadian Portfolio Investment in Foreign Securities fell from previous $3.77B to $-3.15B in January

14:15 Canada Housing Starts s.a (YoY) registered at 229K, below expectations (248.5K) in February Canada Housing Starts s.a (YoY) registered at 229K, below expectations (248.5K) in February

13:38 WTI refreshes weekly high near $68.00 on China’s fresh stimulus plan West Texas Intermediate (WTI), futures on NYMEX, posts a fresh weekly high near $68.00 in European trading hours on Monday.

13:27 China: Three major structural constraints prevent boosting consumption – BBH China’s January-February economic data was better-than-anticipated.

13:18 Gold edges higher at start of eventful week Gold’s price (XAU/USD) edges slightly higher and trades around $2,995 at the time of writing on Monday following Friday’s take-profit-led correction after hitting a fresh all-time high of $3,005.

13:12 AUD/USD is firmer on the day – BBH AUD/USD is firmer on broad US Dollar (USD) weakness and improving Chinese economic activity, BBH FX analysts report.

13:03 USD/CNH: Support level at 7.2100 is unlikely to come under threat – UOB Group USD is expected to edge lower; the major support level at 7.2100 is unlikely to come under threat.

13:01 India Trade Deficit Government down to $14.05B in February from previous $22.99B India Trade Deficit Government down to $14.05B in February from previous $22.99B

12:57 USD/MXN can try to reclaim recent pivot high at 20.40 – Société Générale USD/MXN has breached the lower limit of its multi-month range denoting risk of persistence in decline, Société Générale's FX analysts note.

12:54 USD/JPY: To trade between 147.80 and 149.20 – UOB Group US Dollar (USD) is expected to trade in a range vs Japanese Yen (JPY), most likely between 147.80 and 149.20.

12:49 GBP: Waiting for the BoE meeting – Danske Bank The big event this week for GBP FX is the Bank of England meeting on Thursday, Danske Bank's FX analyst Jens Nærvig Pedersen reports.

12:46 NZD/USD: Upward momentum is building again – UOB Group Increase in momentum suggests potential for NZD to continue to advance; it is unclear whether it can break and remain above the 0.5765/0.5775 resistance zone.

12:40 Brent: Below $73.70, there is a risk of persistence in decline – Société Générale Brent has experienced a steady pullback after failing to establish above the 200-DMA in January, Société Générale's FX analysts note.

12:35 USD/CAD Price Forecast: Trades cautiously near 1.4350 as Fed policy takes centre stage The USD/CAD pair struggles to gain ground near the three-day low of 1.4360 in European trading hours on Monday.

12:33 AUD/USD: Likely to trade in a higher range of 0.6245/0.6385 – UOB Group Scope for Australian Dollar (AUD) to rise further vs US Dollar (USD), but it does not seem to have enough momentum to test 0.6385 (there is another resistance at 0.6365).

12:27 China: A good start to 2025 – Standard Chartered January-February activity data beat expectations, supported by fiscal front-loading.

12:14 OECD lowers global growth outlook on trade tensions In its latest report published on Monday, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) lowers global growth outlook on trade tensions, seeing stronger inflation pressures.

12:12 Pound Sterling consolidates at the start of Fed-BoE monetary policy week The Pound Sterling (GBP) trades in a tight range against the US Dollar (USD) around 1.2950 at the start of the week.

12:06 China: Economic recovery continued into Jan-Feb, upside risk to 1Q25 GDP growth – UOB Group China’s macroeconomic data turned out brighter than expected in Jan-Feb with industrial production, retail sales and urban fixed assets investment (FAI) above Bloomberg’s consensus forecasts.

12:01 GBP: Will BoE remain trapped with sticky wages? – ING All the UK action this week comes on Thursday. That's when we'll see both the next instalment of UK wage data and the Bank of England MPC meeting, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

11:50 GBP/USD: Likely to trade in a 1.2900/1.2970 range – UOB Group Pound Sterling (GBP) is likely to trade in a 1.2900/1.2970 range.

11:44 USD: February retail sales need to rebound – ING Beyond all the uncertainty associated with this year's on-again-off-again US tariffs, one core theme weighing on US interest rates and equities has been the fear of a slowing US consumer.

11:33 EUR/USD: Likely to trade between 1.0845 and 1.0910 – UOB Group Price movements in Euro (EUR) vs US Dollar (USD) are likely part of a range trading phase between 1.0845 and 1.0910.

11:31 Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Monday, according to FXStreet data.

11:25 EUR: Insights into the April ECB pause? – ING It looks as though EUR/USD can stay relatively supported for the short term, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

11:01 NZD/USD hits three-week high near 0.5775; seems poised to climb further on bearish USD The NZD/USD pair gains positive traction for the second straight day on Monday and climbs to a three-week high, around the 0.5775 region during the first half of the European session.

11:00 Italy Consumer Price Index (YoY) below expectations (1.7%) in February: Actual (1.6%) Italy Consumer Price Index (YoY) below expectations (1.7%) in February: Actual (1.6%)

11:00 Italy Consumer Price Index (MoM) meets forecasts (0.2%) in February Italy Consumer Price Index (MoM) meets forecasts (0.2%) in February

11:00 Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY) meets forecasts (1.7%) in February Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (YoY) meets forecasts (1.7%) in February

11:00 Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (MoM) in line with forecasts (0.1%) in February Italy Consumer Price Index (EU Norm) (MoM) in line with forecasts (0.1%) in February

10:49 Palladium price today: Rare metals advance at the start of the European session Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) trade with a positive tone at the beginning of Monday, according to FXStreet data.

10:45 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD remains close to $34.00 near five-month highs Silver price (XAG/USD) continues to lose ground for the second successive day, trading around $33.70 per troy ounce during the European hours on Monday.

10:24 Crude oil price today: WTI price bullish at European opening West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price advances on Monday, early in the European session.

10:12 EUR/USD wobbles as Fed’s policy takes center stage EUR/USD trades in a tight range below the key level of 1.0900 in European trading hours on Monday.

10:01 Turkey Budget Balance fell from previous -139.26B to -310.1B in February Turkey Budget Balance fell from previous -139.26B to -310.1B in February

10:01 Turkey Budget Balance: -310.01B (February) vs previous -139.26B Turkey Budget Balance: -310.01B (February) vs previous -139.26B

09:31 EUR/GBP holds steady above 0.8400, upside potential appears due to German Debt Agreement EUR/GBP remains stable around 0.8410 during early European trading hours on Monday, following gains in the previous session.

08:51 EUR/JPY Price Forecast: The cross keeps bullish vibe, first upside target emerges above 162.50 The EUR/JPY cross loses momentum to around 162.15 during the early European session on Monday.

08:31 India WPI Inflation registered at 2.38% above expectations (2.36%) in February India WPI Inflation registered at 2.38% above expectations (2.36%) in February

07:34 USD/CHF attracts some sellers below 0.8850 amid safe-haven flows The USD/CHF pair attracts some sellers to around 0.8845 during the early European session on Monday.

07:05 Gold price sits near record high, continues to draw support from the global flight to safety Gold price (XAU/USD) struggles to attract any meaningful buyers on Monday, though it remains close to the all-time top – levels beyond the $3,000 psychological mark touched on Friday.

06:59 AUD/JPY rises above 94.00 as risk sentiment improves amid China’s stimulus measures AUD/JPY continues to gain ground for the second successive day, trading around 94.20 during the Asian hours on Monday.

06:52 US President Trump: Will impose reciprocal tariffs on April 2, announce on Russia-Ukraine talks US President Donald Trump said early Monday that he “will impose reciprocal and sectoral tariffs on April 2.” Additional quotes No intention of making exemptions on steel, aluminum tariffs.

06:36 India Gold price today: Gold steadies, according to FXStreet data Gold prices remained broadly unchanged in India on Monday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

06:33 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD holds below $34.00 as traders await US Retail Sales release The Silver price (XAG/USD) edges lower to around $33.80 after reaching its highest level since October 31, 2024, during the Asian trading hours on Monday.

06:29 GBP/USD Price Forecast: Moves below 1.2950 toward nine-day EMA The GBP/USD pair extends its losing streak for the third successive session, trading around 1.2940 during the Asian hours on Monday.

06:16 Indonesia Trade Balance above forecasts ($2.45B) in February: Actual ($3.12B) Indonesia Trade Balance above forecasts ($2.45B) in February: Actual ($3.12B)

06:16 Indonesia Imports registered at 2.3% above expectations (0.6%) in February Indonesia Imports registered at 2.3% above expectations (0.6%) in February

06:04 Indonesia Exports above expectations (9.1%) in February: Actual (14.05%) Indonesia Exports above expectations (9.1%) in February: Actual (14.05%)

05:37 WTI remains solid around $67.50 due to China’s stimulus measures, Middle-East tensions West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price extends its winning streak for a second consecutive session, trading around $67.40 per barrel during Asian market hours on Monday.

05:11 USD/CAD holds steady above mid-1.4300s; seems vulnerable amid bearish USD The USD/CAD pair kicks off the new week on a subdued note and oscillates in a narrow band above mid-1.4300s, or the lower end of a one-week-old trading range, during the Asian session.

05:00 South Korea Money Supply Growth increased to 5.7% in January from previous 5.1% South Korea Money Supply Growth increased to 5.7% in January from previous 5.1%

04:54 NZD/USD rises above 0.5750 as China’s Retail Sales YoY increase in January-February NZD/USD continues its upward momentum for the second consecutive day, trading around 0.5760 during Asian hours on Monday.

04:38 Japanese Yen consolidates against USD; bullish bias remains amid divergent BoJ-Fed expectations The Japanese Yen (JPY) seesaws between tepid gains/minor losses against its American counterpart during the Asian session on Monday amid mixed fundamental cues.

04:25 USD/INR weakens ahead of Indian WPI inflation, US Retail Sales data The Indian Rupee (INR) strengthens on Monday. The concerns about slowing growth in the US economy from US President Donald Trump administration's trade policies weigh on the Greenback and provide some support to the INR.

04:24 China’s NBS: Economy remains resilient but external environment becoming more complex and severe Following the publication of the high-impact China’s February activity data, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) expressed its outlook on the economy during its press conference on Monday.