ไทม์ไลน์ข่าวสาร forex

23:48 AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Bears push lower as key support approaches
AUD/JPY extended its decline on Wednesday ahead of the Asian session, slipping toward the 94.50 area after a second consecutive day in the red.

AUD/JPY was seen trading around the 94.50 zone ahead of the Asian session, marking its second consecutive decline.The 20-day SMA near 94.00 is coming into focus, with a break below signaling a potential shift in sentiment.Traders should monitor the RSI as it approaches the 50 mark, as a drop below could reinforce bearish momentum. AUD/JPY extended its decline on Wednesday ahead of the Asian session, slipping toward the 94.50 area after a second consecutive day in the red. The retreat comes after the pair struggled to maintain momentum above recent highs, suggesting a cooling of bullish sentiment. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is declining, now hovering near the neutral 50 mark. A move below this threshold could indicate growing bearish pressure. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is printing flat green bars, signaling waning upside momentum. The immediate support level is located at the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near 94.00, a key level that, if breached, could open the door for further declines. Below that, additional support lies at 93.50. On the upside, resistance is seen at 95.00, followed by a more significant barrier near 96.00. AUD/JPY daily chart

23:45 New Zealand Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) registered at 0.7% above expectations (0.4%) in 4Q
New Zealand Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) registered at 0.7% above expectations (0.4%) in 4Q

23:45 New Zealand Gross Domestic Product (YoY) above forecasts (-1.4%) in 4Q: Actual (-1.1%)
New Zealand Gross Domestic Product (YoY) above forecasts (-1.4%) in 4Q: Actual (-1.1%)

23:39 Brazil Interest Rate Decision meets forecasts (14.25%)
Brazil Interest Rate Decision meets forecasts (14.25%)

23:25 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD slips below $34.00 as Fed acknowledges uncertainty
Silver price finished the day with a loss of over 0.55% on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve (Fed) held rates unchanged while acknowledging the economic outlook is uncertain due to US trade policies implemented by President Donald Trump.

22:11 Forex Today: The UK docket takes centre stage with the BoE and jobs report
The Greenback managed to regain some balance and set aside three consecutive daily pullbacks after the Fed maintained its interest rates at its meeting, as widely anticipated.

The Greenback managed to regain some balance and set aside three consecutive daily pullbacks after the Fed maintained its interest rates at its meeting, as widely anticipated.Here is what you need to know on Thursday, March 20: The US Dollar Index (DXY) regain some buying traction and bounced off the area of multi-month lows despite a post-Fed pullback in US yields across the curve. The usual weekly Initial Jobless Claims are due, seconded by the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Existing Home Sales, and the CB Leading Index. EUR/USD retreated markedly and returned to the sub-1.0900 region in response to the improved sentiment around the Greenback. Producer Prices in Germany will be released along with the Construction Output in the broader euro area. In addition, the ECB’s Lagarde and Lane are due to speak. GBP/USD came under renewed selling pressure and retested the area of two-day lows near 1.2960, just to bounce afterwards. A very interesting UK calendar will see the BoE’s interest rate decision, seconded by the release of the labour market report and the CBI Industrial Trends Orders. USD/JPY gave away the initial move past 150.00 and retreated to the 148.80 zone following the Fed’s decision. Next on tap on the Japanese calendar will be the release of the Inflation Rate and weekly Foreign Bond Investment figures. AUD/USD kept the offered stance in place and dropped to the low-0.6300s, approaching three-day lows at the same time. The Australian labour market report will be the sole release in Oz. WTI prices advanced modestly above the $67.00 mark per barrel amid traders’ assessment of the ongoing US trade policy as well as geopolitical news from the Russia-Ukraine war. Gold prices advanced to a record peak past the $3,050 mark per troy ounce after the Fed hinted at two rate cuts this year and US yields receded across the board. Silver prices faced some downside pressure after climbing to yearly peaks past the $34.00 mark per ounce in the previous day.

22:10 Gold hits record high past $3,050 as Fed holds rates stable, Powell warns of uncertainty
Gold prices rallied sharply and hit a new all-time high of $3,052 on Wednesday as US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell spoke following the Fed’s decision to hold rates unchanged.

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At the time of writing, the XAU/USD trades volatile within the $3,035-$3,050 range, up more than 0.20%. The Fed decided to keep rates unchanged at the 4.25%-4.50% range and tweaked its balance sheet, which is expected to run off in April. The Fed acknowledged that labor market conditions remain solid but noted that inflation remains "somewhat" elevated, reaffirming its commitment to monitoring risks to both sides of its dual mandate. Fed economic projections hinted that officials expect two rate cuts this year. The fed funds rate is forecast to remain at 3.9%, unchanged from December’s projections. Other projections, like inflation and the Unemployment Rate, were upwardly revised. On the other hand, the US economy is expected to slow below the 2% threshold, indicating that it became slightly fragile amid US President Donald Trump's trade policies. Following the US central bank decision, Jerome Powell took the stand. He said that “uncertainty around the (economic) outlook has increased,” adding that some tariff inflation has been passed on to consumers. Powell commented, "Our current policy stance is well positioned to deal with the risk and uncertainties we face.” Turning to geopolitics, hostilities between Russia and Ukraine continued despite talks to achieve a 30-day ceasefire from attacking energy facilities. In the meantime, the Middle East conflict escalated, with Israeli airstrikes killing 400 people on Tuesday, according to Reuters. Daily digest market movers: Gold price poised to extend rally as real yields plunge The US 10-year T-note yield drops three basis points (bps) to 4.254%. At the same time, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the buck’s performance against a basket of six currencies, rises 0.27% up to 103.54. US real yields, as measured by the US 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) yield, which correlates inversely to Gold prices, dropped five-and-a-half bps to 1.935% via Reuters. The Federal Reserve’s Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) includes forecasts of interest rates, growth, the labor market and inflation. The fed funds rate is expected at 3.9%, unchanged in 2025, at 3.4% in 2026 and 3.1% for 2027. The US economy is projected to grow 1.7% in 2025, down from 2.1%. For 2026 and 2027 it is projected to remain at 1.8%. The Unemployment Rate is expected to hover near the 4.3%-4.4% range from 2025 to 2027, while PCE inflation would end 2025 at 2.7%, at 2.2% in 2026, and 2% in 2027. Lastly, the core PCE is foreseen to end at 2.8% this year, up from 2.5%. It would dip toward the Fed’s target of 2% until 2027. The money market has priced in 65.5 basis points of Fed easing in 2025, which has sent US Treasury yields plunging alongside the American currency. XAU/USD technical outlook: Gold price conquers $3,000 and is set to end above that level Gold’s uptrend remains intact, and it is poised to extend its gain and challenge the $3,100 figure. The precious metal already printed a record high of $3,052, clearing the psychological $3,050 mark, but it has lacked the strength to aim decisively to reach a new milestone. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) turned overbought, but due to the strength of the uptrend it remains shy of reaching the 80 level. Conversely, if XAU/USD tumbles below $3,000, the first support would be the February 20 daily high at $2,954, followed by the $2,900 mark. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

22:00 United States Net Long-Term TIC Flows came in at $-45.2B below forecasts ($101.1B) in January
United States Net Long-Term TIC Flows came in at $-45.2B below forecasts ($101.1B) in January

22:00 United States Total Net TIC Flows declined to $-48.8B in January from previous $87.1B
United States Total Net TIC Flows declined to $-48.8B in January from previous $87.1B

21:43 Dow Jones Industrial Average rebounds after Fed holds the line
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) gained ground on Wednesday, adding around 540 points at its peaks with equities climbing higher after the Federal Reserve (Fed) gave a nod to still expecting around two rate cuts through the remainder of the year.

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Despite growing headwinds from ham-handed policy from the Trump administration, Fed policymakers continue to lean on signs of still-strong growth and strength within the US labor market, even as growth forecasts get another haircut. The Dow Jones climbed back over the 42,000 major price handle and the Standard and Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) rose around 1.5% as equities tilted back into the bullish side following the latest rate call from the Fed. Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that growth projections for 2025 have been significantly hindered by the Trump administration's erratic policy of announcing trade tariffs on social media only to later retract them. As a result, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) revised its end-2025 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) forecast to 1.7%, a sharp decline from the 2.1% estimate shared in December.Fed's Powell: We are not going to be in any hurry to move on rate cutsAdditionally, the median dot plot suggests that the end-2025 interest rate will remain at 3.9%, indicating little change since the last policy meeting. The FOMC plans to begin slowing down its balance sheet runoff starting in April. Rate markets continue to signal a greater than 50% chance of a quarter-point rate cut in June, with most rate traders assigning a 65% probability of a quarter-point or larger cut on June 18. Despite rising risks to the US economy from lagging growth metrics and increasing concerns that the US's erratic tariff policy could trigger both new inflation and an economic recession simultaneously, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated on Wednesday that the current economic outlook remains generally healthy, and the Fed is not in a hurry to alter its expectations of at least two more rate cuts later in the year. This policy outlook aligns with the aggregate score of Fed policymaker speeches, evaluated by FXStreet's internal Fed Sentiment Index, which indicates that Fed speakers have been vocal about the increasing risks and concerns facing the US economy. However, the overall sentiment remains slightly toward the dovish side, though close to neutral, as the Fed awaits clearer data direction. In other stock news, Boeing is back on the rise as order filling for 737 jets take off.Dow Jones price forecast Despite Wednesday’s bullish print, the Dow remains hindered by the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near the 42,000 key handle. Price action has gathered its feet back under it following a near-term plunge that saw major equity indexes test into correction territory, but bids remain on the hopeful side as technical barriers weigh. Dow Jones daily chart Dow Jones FAQs What is the Dow Jones? The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500. What factors impact the Dow Jones Industrial Average? Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions. What is Dow Theory? Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits. How can I trade the DJIA? There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.

21:00 Argentina Gross Domestic Product (YoY) registered at 2.1% above expectations (1.7%) in 4Q
Argentina Gross Domestic Product (YoY) registered at 2.1% above expectations (1.7%) in 4Q

21:00 Argentina Trade Balance (MoM) below expectations ($662M) in February: Actual ($227M)
Argentina Trade Balance (MoM) below expectations ($662M) in February: Actual ($227M)

20:49 The Fed's projections signal 50 basis points in rate cuts for 2025
The Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) latest dot plot indicates that interest rates will average 3.9% by the end of 2025, matching the December projection.

20:21 USD/JPY steady near 149.30 as Fed holds rates, signals caution
The USD/JPY climbs in Wednesday after the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) decision to keep rates unchanged.

20:17 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD lurches to $3,040 post-Fed
On Wednesday, Gold surged, reaching $3,040 during intraday trading as the Federal Reserve (Fed) made its latest interest rate decision, keeping rates unchanged at 4.5%.

Gold bids jump after Fed releases latest rate call and dot plot.Growth expectations in 2025 are getting hampered by lopsided US policy calls.Markets await Fed Chair Powell's latest press conference.On Wednesday, Gold surged, reaching $3,040 during intraday trading as the Federal Reserve (Fed) made its latest interest rate decision, keeping rates unchanged at 4.5%. While markets generally anticipated this hold, any modifications to the Fed's outlook could unsettle investors who are awaiting comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The Fed noted that growth projections for 2025 have been significantly hindered by the Trump administration's erratic policy of announcing trade tariffs on social media only to later retract them. As a result, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) revised its end-2025 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) forecast to 1.7%, a sharp decline from the 2.1% estimate shared in December. Additionally, the median dot plot suggests the end-2025 interest rate will remain at 3.9%, showing little change since the last policy meeting. The FOMC plans to slow down its balance sheet runoff starting in April. Rate markets still indicate a greater than 50% chance of a quarter-point rate cut in June, although the likelihood has slightly decreased, with 42% of traders expecting rates to stay the same.More to come...

20:16 AUD/USD declines as US Dollar holds firm after Fed keeps rates unchanged
The AUD/USD pair retreats toward 0.6340 in the aftermath of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision, as the US Dollar (USD) remains firm.

AUD/USD dips to 0.6340 as the US Dollar remains resilient post-Fed decision.The Federal Reserve leaves interest rates unchanged at 4.5%, aligning with market expectations.FOMC dot plot signals rate cuts ahead, with 2025 median forecast revised lower to 3.375%.The AUD/USD pair retreats toward 0.6340 in the aftermath of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision, as the US Dollar (USD) remains firm. The Fed held interest rates steady at 4.5%, in line with expectations, while signaling a cautious outlook amid inflation and economic uncertainties. The latest FOMC dot plot revealed that policymakers project a median rate of 3.875% for the current period, down from the previous 4.375%, reinforcing expectations of a policy easing cycle. The 2025 rate forecast was also revised down to 3.375%, while GDP projections for next year were cut to 1.7% from 2.1%, suggesting a slowdown in economic growth. Despite the dovish long-term outlook, the US Dollar Index remains stable near 104.00, limiting the Aussie’s upside. The Fed also announced a slower pace of balance sheet runoff starting in April, adjusting its quantitative tightening strategy. In addition, the Fed's sentiment index on the daily chart holds in dovish terrain meaninig that markets are taking the bank's stance as dovish. AUD/USD daily chart

20:14 GBP/USD spikes as Fed sees slower growth and stubborn inflation
GBP/USD lurched higher on Wednesday, tapping 1.2985 in intraday trading after the Federal Reserve's (Fed) latest rate call came in broadly as expected, with the Fed keeping rates steady at 4.5%.

GBP/USD jumped after Fed scrubs growth projections on policy concerns.Fed long-run inflation expectations stuck at 3.0%, Fed funds rate expectations pinned at 3.9%.Rate markets still see odds of a rate cut in June, but hope is dwindling fast.GBP/USD lurched higher on Wednesday, tapping 1.2985 in intraday trading after the Federal Reserve's (Fed) latest rate call came in broadly as expected, with the Fed keeping rates steady at 4.5%. Markets broadly anticipated another hold from the Fed, but adjustments to the Fed's expectations could throw markets for a loop as investors await Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference. According to the Fed, growth expectations for 2025 have been severely hampered by the Trump administration's policy approach of announcing then walking back trade tariffs via social media post. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) trimmed its end-2025 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) forecast at just 1.7%, down sharply from the 2.1% forecast posted in December. The median dot plot of interest rates also sees the end-2025 interest rate stuck at 3.9%, remaining largely unchanged from the previous policy meeting. The FOMC has also decided to slow its balance sheet runoff beginning in April. Rate markets are still pricing in better-than-even odds that the Fed will still deliver a quarter-point rate cut in June, but the margin has shrunk slightly with 42% of rate traders expecting no change at all.More to come...

20:11 EUR/USD trims losses as Fed holds rates, signals cautious stance
The EUR/USD rallied on Wednesday after the US Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged despite adopting a slightly hawkish approach to the future path of interest rates.

20:10 US Dollar strengthens as Fed maintains rates and signals cautious policy path
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is gaining traction near 104.00 after the Federal Reserve decided to keep its benchmark interest rate at 4.5%, maintaining a cautious stance amid evolving inflation and economic conditions.

The Federal Reserve leaves interest rates unchanged at 4.5%, aligning with market expectations.FOMC dot plot signals rate cuts, with the median forecast for 2025 revised down to 3.375%.US Dollar Index (DXY) gains around 104.00 despite dovish sentiment on future policy easing.The US Dollar Index (DXY) is gaining traction near 104.00 after the Federal Reserve decided to keep its benchmark interest rate at 4.5%, maintaining a cautious stance amid evolving inflation and economic conditions. The latest FOMC dot plot revealed that policymakers expect a median rate of 3.875% for the current period, down from the prior 4.375%, reinforcing expectations of future rate cuts. Looking ahead, the Fed revised its 2025 rate forecast lower to 3.375%, a signal of potential policy easing in response to slower economic growth and elevated inflation projections. GDP expectations for 2025 have been downgraded to 1.7% from 2.1%, while unemployment is now forecasted at 4.4%, suggesting a softer labor market outlook. Despite the dovish forward guidance, the US Dollar Index remains resilient, reflecting cautious optimism among investors. The Fed also announced a slower balance sheet runoff starting in April, adjusting its quantitative tightening approach. Market participants now turn their focus to upcoming economic data and Fed communications for further policy clarity. DXY daily chart

20:00 United States Fed Interest Rate Decision in line with expectations (4.5%)
United States Fed Interest Rate Decision in line with expectations (4.5%)

19:13 Dow Jones Industrial Average treads water ahead of Fed
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) held steady within familiar territory on Wednesday, but holding a bullish stance as investors gear up for another showing from the Federal Reserve (Fed).

19:11 Mexican Peso falls as traders reduce risk ahead of Fed rate decision
The Mexican Peso (MXN) lost some ground against the US Dollar (USD) in early trading on Wednesday as market players awaited the US Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) monetary policy decision, hence reducing their exposure to high-beta currencies like the Peso.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Mexican Peso down 0.53%, USD/MXN hits 20.00 as markets await FOMC decision.US Dollar rises 0.47% to 103.72 on DXY; global equities rally amid Fed uncertainty.Banxico's next move in focus; Mexico’s Aggregate Demand and Private Spending data are due Thursday.The Mexican Peso (MXN) lost some ground against the US Dollar (USD) in early trading on Wednesday as market players awaited the US Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) monetary policy decision, hence reducing their exposure to high-beta currencies like the Peso. The USD/MXN trades back above 20.00, up 0.53%. Global equities register gains, unusual on a Fed decision day, while the Greenback recovers some ground as depicted by the US Dollar Index (DXY) rising 0.47% to 103.72. Aside from the Fed, the Mexico and US economic dockets are absent. USD/MXN traders will pay attention to the Fed, which is expected to hold rates unchanged at the 4.25%-4.50% range. In the latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), officials projected just two rate cuts in the year. Still, doubts linger after Fed policymakers emphasized that policy is well positioned and that they’re not in a rush to resume interest rate cuts. On Thursday, Mexico’s economic docket will feature the release of Aggregate Demand and Private Spending data. The data could shed some light on current economic conditions and give some cues about Banco de Mexico’s (Banxico) next policy move in the March 27 monetary policy meeting. Dail digest market movers: Mexican Peso on the defensive amid strong US Dollar The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) revealed earlier this week that US tariffs on Mexican products could spur a recession in Mexico. If duties remain unchanged, the OECD projects Mexico’s economy would shrink -1.3% in 2025 and -0.6% in 2026. Last Wednesday, Mexican Finance Minister Edgar Amador Zamora said the national economy is expanding but is showing signs of slowing down due to trade tensions with the US. Traders had priced the Fed to ease policy by 57 basis points (bps) throughout the year. Nevertheless, President Donald Trump's inflation-prone US trade policies could prevent the US central bank from continuing its cutting rates cycle and waiting to assess the impact on the economy. So far, an Atlanta Fed model updated on March 18 shows that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to contract -1.8% in Q1 2025. USD/MXN technical outlook: Mexican Peso retreats as USD/MXN climbs above 20.00 USD/MXN seems to have bottomed near the 19.89–20.00 range as traders await a fresh catalyst. A hawkish tilt by the Fed could refresh weekly highs and clear the path to challenging the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 20.35. If surpassed, the next stop would be the 50-day SMA at 20.42. Conversely, if USD/MXN tumbles beneath 19.90, traders could expect a fall to test the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 19.65. Once hurdled, the next key support levels would be 19.50, 19.00, and the August 20, 2024 low at 18.64. Mexican Peso FAQs What key factors drive the Mexican Peso? The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity. How do decisions of the Banxico impact the Mexican Peso? The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN. How does economic data influence the value of the Mexican Peso? Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Mexican Peso? As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

18:13 EUR/USD Price Analysis: Bulls lose steam as correction unfolds
EUR/USD moved lower on Wednesday after the European session, retreating toward the 1.0895 zone following recent strong gains.

EUR/USD was seen trading around the 1.0895 area after the European session, posting a moderate decline.The pair confirms a corrective phase as buyers lose grip, with the recent price action suggesting further downside.RSI is escaping the overbought zone, signaling the potential for extended losses if bearish momentum builds.EUR/USD moved lower on Wednesday after the European session, retreating toward the 1.0895 zone following recent strong gains. The pair’s correction was largely anticipated as momentum indicators flashed overbought signals earlier in the week. From a technical perspective, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is moving sharply lower, now exiting overbought conditions. This suggests that selling pressure may persist in the near term. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is printing flat green bars, signaling a potential loss of bullish momentum. Support is now seen at the 1.0850 zone, with stronger demand likely emerging around 1.0800. On the upside, resistance stands at 1.0950, followed by 1.1000, which remains a key hurdle for buyers. EUR/USD daily chart With the RSI breaking out of overbought territory, traders should watch for further downside in the coming sessions. If selling pressure intensifies, EUR/USD could extend losses toward the 1.0800 region, while a recovery above 1.0950 would be needed to reignite bullish momentum.

18:00 Russia Producer Price Index (MoM) increased to 0.9% in February from previous 0.5%
Russia Producer Price Index (MoM) increased to 0.9% in February from previous 0.5%

18:00 Russia Producer Price Index (YoY): 9.8% (February) vs 9.7%
Russia Producer Price Index (YoY): 9.8% (February) vs 9.7%

16:57 GBP/USD slips below 1.30 as traders brace for FOMC’s decision
The Pound Sterling dropped 0.20% against the Greenback during the North American session as traders await the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision.

16:30 United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change above expectations (1.17M) in March 14: Actual (1.745M)
United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change above expectations (1.17M) in March 14: Actual (1.745M)

16:17 USD/JPY revisits two-week high of 150.00 with Fed policy in focus
The USD/JPY pair jumps to near the psychological level of 150.00 in North American trading hours on Wednesday.

15:55 GBP tracks peers on the day – Scotiabank
Pound Sterling (GBP) is softer on the session, in line with its G10 peers, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

Pound Sterling (GBP) is softer on the session, in line with its G10 peers, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. Short-term price patterns may be tilting negative "There were no UK data reports today, leaving the pound to essentially track the general trend in the USD once again. UK pay and employment data tomorrow are, however, likely to bolster the case for only cautious easing steps from the BoE in the coming months, proving something of a cushion for the pound." "GBP gains may be slowing. The broader bull trend looks solid but short-term price action suggests Cable has reached a minor peak at least just above 1.30. Loss of support at 1.2955 will trigger a little more weakness intraday and tilt the daily pattern of price action a little more negative potentially."

15:47 EUR drifts lower after another failure around 1.0950 – Scotiabank
Spot has drifted a little lower through the overnight session after failing to progress through the mid-1.09s.

Spot has drifted a little lower through the overnight session after failing to progress through the mid-1.09s. Intraday volatility may have been accentuated by the sharp swings in Turkish markets earlier, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. Bull trend is consolidating and still prone to pushing higher "Eurozone data showed a slowdown in Q4 Labour Costs (to 3.7% in the year, from 4.5%). Eurozone Feb CPI was revised a tenth lower (0.3% m/m, 2.3% y/y). Little substantive progress emerged from US/Russia talks on Ukraine yesterday—underscoring perhaps how hard it may be to get a lasting agreement." "The EUR has drifted a little lower after again failing to progress above the mid-1.09 point. There is some technical jeopardy for the EUR here, but only if spot losses extend below key short-term support at 1.0830 (double top trigger). Otherwise, the bull trend is consolidating and still prone to pushing higher. Minor dips are still likely to find willing buyers."

15:45 CAD slips back from probe through upper 1.42s – Scotiabank
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) rebound petered out below 1.43 yesterday.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) rebound petered out below 1.43 yesterday. A slightly firmer USD ahead of the Fed has added to the lift in funds today but investors will be reluctant to bid up the CAD too far ahead of more clarity on tariff risks facing Canada, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. USD/CAD gains may extend to the 1.4350/80 zone "The USD still looks overvalued relative to what tariff action has been deployed—and what might yet emerge. But there is unlikely to be a significant recovery in the CAD ahead of April 2’s tariff update and even then, wide short-term, rate spreads really do need to narrow significantly to drive the CAD sustainably higher." "A firm rebound from yesterday’s intraday low around 1.4270 set a bullish, short-term reversal signal on the 6-hour chart (outside range higher). The rebound coincided with spot testing trend support for the USD off the September low." "USD/CAD gains may extend to the 1.4350/80 zone in the near term. A break above the upper 1.43s would pave the way for a return to the low/mid-1.44s. Support is 1.4250/70."

15:41 USD lifted by short-covering into FOMC – Scotiabank
Markets are settling into ranges as investors curb risk-taking ahead of the FOMC.

Markets are settling into ranges as investors curb risk-taking ahead of the FOMC. Stocks are trading narrowly after yesterday’s US market declines. Bonds are a little softer in Europe while Treasurys are steady. Caution has given the USD a broad— short-covering—lift versus the majors. The main market mover is Turkey where the TRY and local bonds plunged on renewed domestic political risk, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes. USD firmer as markets trade cautiously into Fed decision "There does appear to be a lot of uncertainty about what the Fed will deliver today. No change in policy is expected but rather more interest will be in how Fed Chair Powell articulates the risks around the outlook as the economy appears at risk of weakening sharply in Q1 amid uncertainty over US trade policy while core PCE remains sticky and inflation expectations have jumped as consumers fret about the impact of tariffs." "Swaps reflect a little more than 50bps of anticipated easing this year so what the dot plot implies in this respect will be key to how the USD reacts. It’s hard seeing the Fed sound more hawkish at this point but that might be what the USD needs to stage any sort of major turnaround. The Fed is the main event today but the late afternoon release of the January Treasury International Capital (TIC) flows data may warrant some attention." "Net inflows have been positive, if slowing after a sharp increase in net inflows last September, but December’s data reflected the largest ever one-month net outflow but official (i.e., central banks etc.) accounts from US assets. Earlier, the BoJ left policy unchanged, as expected. More tightening seems likely (possibly at the next policy decision), given rising wages and upside risks to the inflation outlook."

15:14 AUD/USD slumps to near 0.6330 as USD rebounds ahead of Fed’s policy
AUD/USD corrects further to near 0.6330 as the US Dollar bounces back ahead of the Fed’s monetary policy decision and dot plot.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}AUD/USD corrects further to near 0.6330 as the US Dollar bounces back ahead of the Fed’s monetary policy decision and dot plot.The Fed is almost certain to keep interest rates steady for the second straight monetary policy meeting.The Australian economy is expected to have added fresh 30K workers in February.The AUD/USD pair extends its correction to near 0.6330 in the North American session on Wednesday from the three-week high of 0.6390 posted on Monday. The Aussie pair faces selling pressure as the US Dollar (USD) rebounds ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy decision at 18:00 GMT. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, recovers to near 103.70 after attracting bids near the five-month low of 103.20. S&P 500 futures have posted nominal gains ahead of the opening of the United States (US), indicating a slight improvement in the risk appetite of investors. Investors expect the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged in the range of 4.25%-4.50% for the second time in a row. Fed officials have been guiding that borrowing rates should remain at their current levels until they get clarity over the policies by US President Donald Trump. Market participants expect Trump’s tariff policies will be inflationary for the economy and could lead to a recession. Apart from the Fed’s policy decision, investors will also focus on the doty plot, which shows where officials see the Federal funds rate heading in the medium and longer term. In the December meeting, Fed officials forecasted two interest rate cuts for 2025. Meanwhile, the Australian Dollar (AUD) will be influenced by the Aussie employment data for February, which will be released on Thursday. Investors will pay close attention to the labor market data as it will influence market expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monetary policy outlook. The employment report is expected to show that the economy added 30K fresh workers last month, lower than 44K in January. The Unemployment Rate is expected to remain steady at 4.1%. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

15:10 ECB's Villeroy: Timing and size of ECB rate cuts depend on data
European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on Wednesday that the timing and the size of the ECB rate cuts will depend on data.

European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on Wednesday that the timing and the size of the ECB rate cuts will depend on data. Villeroy further reiterated that they will be at the 2% inflation target in the coming year. Earlier in the day, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said that while increasing defense spending across Europe was the "number one priority", he noted that there is a need to guarantee budget stability in accordance with the bloc's fiscal rules, per Reuters. Market reaction EUR/USD showed no immediate reaction to these comments and was last seen losing 0.4% on the day near 1.0900.

14:20 US Dollar strengthens ahead of Fed decision
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, ticks up and recovers above 103.50 at the time of writing on Wednesday as the US Dollar (USD) strengthens against most major currencies.

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Traders assess the impact of the upcoming Federal Reserve rate decision. The US Dollar Index is still stuck between 103.00 and 104.00 for now. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, ticks up and recovers above 103.50 at the time of writing on Wednesday as the US Dollar (USD) strengthens against most major currencies. The surge in the Greenback comes on the back of a steep pop of over 5% in the USD against the Turkish Lira (TRY) after headlines emerged that authorities detained Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, President Tayyip Erdogan's main political rival, on charges including corruption and aiding a terrorist group. On the economic data front, it is a very calm day in the runup towards the Federal Reserve (Fed) decision on interest rates later in the day. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is set to announce its policy rate decision and publish the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) update. After the meeting, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will comment in a press conference. With the Trump policy in the backdrop, markets will want to know how many, if any, rate cuts the Fed members have penciled in for 2025 and beyond.Daily digest market movers: Fed’s silence could be deafening At 18:00 GMT, the Fed will release its Interest Rate Decision and Monetary Policy Statement, along with the Summary of Economic Projections. The policy rate is expected to remain unchanged in the 4.25%-4.50% range. Besides that, the Interest Rate Projections in the SEP update might suggest how many rate cuts the Fed expects for 2025 and 2026. At 18:30 GMT, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver a statement and take questions in a press conference. Equities show signs of some risk-on sentiment, with European indices and US futures trading in the green, though less than 0.50% on average. According to the CME Fedwatch Tool, the probability of interest rates being lower than current levels in May currently stands at 16.8%, compared to 21.5% on Tuesday. For June, the odds for borrowing costs being lower stand at 62.6%. The US 10-year yield trades around 4.28%, off its near five-month low of 4.10% printed on March 4.US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Not going that easyThe US Dollar Index (DXY) withstood another firm pressure on its downside support level near 103.18 on Tuesday. The fact that the support can refrain the DXY from hitting a new six-month low suggests that markets are awaiting more clarity on tariffs, the US economy, inflation and geopolitics. The DXY is at a crossroads where, once the 103.18 level gets broken, might not come back for a long time now that several banks are starting to call for more US Dollar devaluation in the coming years, according to Bloomberg. A return to 104.00 would mean the DXY simply stays loyal to its range for March. If bulls can avoid a technical rejection there, look for a large sprint higher towards the 105.00 round level, with the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) converging at that point and reinforcing this area as a strong resistance. Once broken through that zone, a string of pivotal levels, such as 105.53 and 105.89, will present as caps. On the downside, the 103.00 round level could be considered a bearish target in case US yields roll off on the back of the Fed communication later this Wednesday, with even 101.90 not unthinkable if markets further capitulate on their long-term US Dollar holdings. US Dollar Index: Daily Chart US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

13:23 USD/CAD Price Forecast: Holds key 1.4300 level ahead of Fed’s monetary policy decision
The USD/CAD pair rises to near 1.4330 in European trading hours on Wednesday.

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The Loonie pair gains as the US Dollar (USD) rebounds ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy decision at 18:00 GMT. The US Dollar Index (DXY) advances 0.4% to near 103.70 after revisiting the five-month low of 103.20. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the Fed is certain to keep interest rates unchanged in the range of 4.25%-4.50%. Therefore, investors will pay close attention to the Fed’s dot plot and economic projections. In the December policy meeting, Fed officials collectively guided two interest rate cuts for 2025. Investors will also focus on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference after the policy decision to get cues about the impact of United States (US) Donald Trump’s policies on the economic outlook. Lately, comments from a slew of US officials, including Trump, indicated that Trump’s economic policies could lead to economic turbulence in the near term. Meanwhile, the Canadian Dollar (CAD) is expected to face pressure from tariffs slapped by the US. Donald Trump has imposed a 25% levy on Canadian goods imported to the US but has provided some extension on those products that come under the purview of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). On the domestic front, Canadian inflation has accelerated significantly in February, forcing traders to reassess their expectations for the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) monetary policy outlook. On Tuesday, Statistics Canada reported that the annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose at a faster pace of 2.6%, compared to 1.9% growth seen in January. USD/CAD holds above the 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is around 1.4222, suggesting that the overall trend is bullish. The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates in the 40.00-60.00 range, suggesting a sideways trend. Going forward, an upside move above the March 10 high of 1.4470 will open the door toward the psychological resistance of 1.4500 and the January 30 high of 1.4595. On the contrary, a breakdown below the February 14 low of 1.4151 by the pair would expose it to the December 9 low of 1.4094, followed by the December 6 low of 1.4020. USD/CAD daily chart Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

13:00 South Africa Retail Sales (YoY) climbed from previous 3.1% to 7% in January
South Africa Retail Sales (YoY) climbed from previous 3.1% to 7% in January

13:00 United States MBA Mortgage Applications: -6.2% (March 14) vs previous 11.2%
United States MBA Mortgage Applications: -6.2% (March 14) vs previous 11.2%

12:50 USD/CAD holds high above 1.4247 – ING
USD/CAD is holding above its 100-day moving average at 1.4247, BBH's FX analysts report.

USD/CAD is holding above its 100-day moving average at 1.4247, BBH's FX analysts report. High inflation and negative growth prospect are a drag for CAD "Canada inflation ran hot in February. Headline inflation rose to 2.6%y/y (consensus: 2.2%) vs. 1.9% in January. Core inflation (average of trim and median CPI) quickened to 2.9% y/y (consensus: 2.75%) vs. 2.7% in January. Sales taxes were reapplied to eligible products mid-February which put upward pressure on consumer prices as taxes paid by consumers are included in the CPI." "Headline and core CPI inflation are tracking above the Bank of Canada’s (BOC) Q1 projection of 2.1% and 2.5%, respectively. The implication is the BOC has limited room to ease policy further to offset the drag to growth from heightened trade policy uncertainty. The combination of high inflation and unfavorable growth prospect is a drag for CAD."

12:46 NZD/USD can trade below equilibrium to attract foreign investments – BBH
NZD/USD retraced some of this week’s gains on USD strength, BBH's FX analysts report.

NZD/USD retraced some of this week’s gains on USD strength, BBH's FX analysts report. Long-term fundamental equilibrium for NZD/USD is at 0.6700 "New Zealand’s annual current account deficit narrowed to -6.2% of GDP in Q4 from -6.5% in Q3. The current account deficit remains large by historical standards, suggesting NZD needs to keep trading at a deep discount to fundamental equilibrium to attract foreign investments and finance this deficit. We estimate long-term fundamental equilibrium for NZD/USD at around 0.6700."

12:42 USD/CNH: Expected to trade between 7.2200 and 7.2430 – UOB Group
US Dollar (USD) is expected to trade between 7.2200 and 7.2430 vs Chinese Yuan (CNH).

US Dollar (USD) is expected to trade between 7.2200 and 7.2430 vs Chinese Yuan (CNH). In the longer run, сurrent price movements are likely part of a 7.2100/7.2800 consolidation range, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Current price movements are likely part of a consolidation range 24-HOUR VIEW: "We expected USD to 'trade between 7.2200 and 7.2430 yesterday.' USD then traded in a narrower range of 7.2215/7.2371, ending the day little changed at 7.2274 (+0.02%). The price action provides no fresh clues, and we continue to expect USD to trade between 7.2200 and 7.2430." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Our most recent narrative was from last Friday (14 Mar, spot at 7.2490), wherein 'the current price movements are likely part of a 7.2100/7.2800 consolidation range.' USD traded in a relatively quiet manner over the past few days and there is no change in our view."

12:41 USD/CHF Price Forecast: Strives to gain ground near 0.8750 ahead of Fed policy
The USD/CHF pair attracts bids near the three-month low of 0.8750 during European trading hours on Wednesday.

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The Swiss Franc pair gains as the US Dollar (USD) rebounds ahead of the outcome of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) two-day monetary policy meeting at 18:00 GMT. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, recovers to near 103.70 from the five-month low of 103.20 posted the previous day. Investors expect the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged in the range of 4.25%-4.50% for the second time in a row as officials need time to get clarity over United States (US) President Donald Trump’s economic policies. The Fed will also release the dot plot, which shows where policymakers see the Federal funds rate heading in the medium and long term, and the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). Meanwhile, the Swiss Franc (CHF) underperforms as investors expect the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to follow an ultra-dovish policy-easing approach amid deepening risks of inflation remaining persistently lower. Swiss Consumer Price Index (CPI) decelerated to 0.3% in 12 months to February. USD/CHF is inching closer to revisiting the four-month low of 0.8736 plotted from the December 6 low. The outlook of the pair is broadly bearish as it trades below the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is around 0.8882. The momentum is on the bearish side as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates in the 20.00-40.00 range. The asset could face more downside towards the November 8 low of 0.8700 and the November 6 low of 0.8620 if it falls below the December 6 low of 0.8736. On the flip side, a recovery move above the psychological support of 0.9000 would drive the asset towards the February 28 high of 0.9036, followed by the round-level resistance of 0.9100. USD/CHF daily chart US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

12:33 USD/JPY faces important resistance at the 200-MA around 152.00 – BBH
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) delivered a cautious hold and warns against a weaker Japanese Yen (JPY), BBH's FX analysts report.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) delivered a cautious hold and warns against a weaker Japanese Yen (JPY), BBH's FX analysts report. BOJ signals little tolerance for a weaker currency "USD/JPY rallied briefly above 150.00 before paring back gains to 149.20. As was widely expected, the BOJ left the policy rate unchanged at 0.50%. The decision was unanimous. BOJ Governor Ueda reiterated the bank’s guidance that it would continue to raise the policy interest rate if the outlook for economic activity and prices will be realized, adding real interest rate is very low." "However, the BOJ cautioned 'there remain high uncertainties surrounding Japan's economic activity and prices, including the evolving situation regarding trade…' The comments reinforce market pricing for a BOJ terminal rate of 1.00% to 1.25% over the next two years with the next full 25bps hike in September." "The limited room for a further upward adjustment to BOJ rate expectations curtails JPY upside. Meanwhile, JPY downside is contained as the BOJ signaled little tolerance for a weaker currency. 'With firms' behavior shifting more toward raising wages and prices recently, exchange rate developments are, compared to the past, more likely to affect prices.' USD/JPY faces important resistance at the 200-day moving average around 152.00."

12:28 USD/JPY: Likely entered a 148.80/149.90 range trading phase – UOB Group
US Dollar (USD) has likely entered a 148.80/149.90 range trading phase vs Japanese Yen (JPY).

US Dollar (USD) has likely entered a 148.80/149.90 range trading phase vs Japanese Yen (JPY). In the longer run, increase in momentum indicates USD could strengthen toward 150.30, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. USD can strengthen toward 150.30 24-HOUR VIEW: "Following Monday’s price action, we indicated yesterday (Tuesday), when USD was at 149.30, that 'The price movements have resulted in an increase in momentum.' While we expected USD to rise, we highlighted that 'the major resistance at 150.30 is likely out of reach for now' and we noted that 'support levels are at 149.00 and 148.70.' Our view was not wrong, as USD rose to 149.93, pulled to 149.07 before closing largely unchanged at 149.26 (+0.03%). USD has likely entered a range trading phase. Today, we expect it to trade in a 148.80/149.90 range." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We continue to hold the same view as yesterday (18 Mar, spot at 149.30). As highlighted, the recent increase in momentum indicates USD could strengthen toward 150.30. The upward momentum will remain intact as long as USD holds above 148.30."

12:08 EUR/USD declines as US Dollar strengthens ahead of Fed decision
EUR/USD falls sharply to slightly below 1.0900 in Wednesday’s European session after posting a fresh five-month high near 1.0955 the previous day.

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The major currency pair weakens as the US Dollar (USD) performs strongly ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decision at 18:00 GMT. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, jumps to near 103.70 after revisiting a five-month low around 103.20 on Tuesday. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the Fed is almost certain to keep borrowing rates steady in the range of 4.25%-4.50%. This would be the second straight policy meeting in which the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged. Traders have remained increasingly confident about the Fed maintaining a status quo on Wednesday as officials have been arguing in favor of maintaining a “wait and see” approach until they get clarity over the United States (US) economic outlook under the leadership of President Donald Trump. Market participants expect that Donald Trump’s tariff policies could result in a resurgence in inflationary pressures in the near term as the impact of higher import duties will be borne by US importers who will pass on the impact to consumers. Apart from the interest rate decision, investors will also focus on the Fed’s dot plot, which shows policymakers’ collective forecast for the interest rate outlook in the medium and longer term. In the December meeting, Fed officials projected two interest rate cuts in 2025. Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD drops as Euro underperforms A sharp decline in the EUR/USD pair from the five-month high is also driven by the Euro’s (EUR) underperformance across the board on Wednesday. The Euro drops even though German leaders approved likely Chancellor Frederich Merz’s debt restructuring plan on Tuesday at Bundestag lower house Parliament, aiming to stimulate economic growth and boost defense spending. Market participants expect that an end to German fiscal conservatism after over a decade will be inflationary and pro-growth for the economy. Such a scenario will force the European Central Bank (ECB) to turn cautious about the current monetary expansion cycle. The ECB has reduced interest rates six times since June 2024. Also, investors expect that US President Trump’s tariff agenda could accelerate price pressures in the Eurozone. On Tuesday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed in an interview with Fox Business that each country will receive a number on “April 2” that we believe represents their “tariffs”. On the geopolitical front, US President Trump and Russian leader Vladimir Putin agreed to seek an inmediate 30-day ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine on energy and infrastructure targets. "We agreed to an immediate Ceasefire on all Energy and Infrastructure, with an understanding that we will be working quickly to have a Complete Ceasefire and, ultimately, an END to this very horrible War between Russia and Ukraine," Trump said in a post on Truth Social on Tuesday. Technical Analysis: EUR/USD struggles around 1.0950 EUR/USD struggles to extend its upside above 1.0950. However, the long-term outlook of the major currency pair remains firm as it holds above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 1.0660. The pair strengthened after a decisive breakout above the December 6 high of 1.0630 on March 5. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) wobbles near 70.00, suggesting that a strong bullish momentum is intact. Looking down, the December 6 high of 1.0630 will act as the major support zone for the pair. Conversely, the psychological level of 1.1000 will be the key barrier for the Euro bulls. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

12:00 Eurozone Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) in line with forecasts (2.6%) in February
Eurozone Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) in line with forecasts (2.6%) in February

12:00 Eurozone Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) declined to 0.5% in February from previous 0.6%
Eurozone Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) declined to 0.5% in February from previous 0.6%

12:00 Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) below forecasts (2.4%) in February: Actual (2.3%)
Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) below forecasts (2.4%) in February: Actual (2.3%)

12:00 Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) registered at 0.4%, below expectations (0.5%) in February
Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) registered at 0.4%, below expectations (0.5%) in February

12:00 Eurozone Labor Cost down to 3.7% in 4Q from previous 4.6%
Eurozone Labor Cost down to 3.7% in 4Q from previous 4.6%

12:00 Federal Reserve set to keep interest rate unchanged amid US recession fears and Trump tariff concerns
The United States (US) Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce monetary policy decisions and publish the revised Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), the so-called dot plot, following the March policy meeting on Wednesday.

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50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Federal Reserve is expected to leave the policy rate unchanged for the second consecutive meeting.The revised Summary of Economic Projections could offer key clues about the policy outlook.The US Dollar could recover if the Fed downplays growth concerns. The United States (US) Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce monetary policy decisions and publish the revised Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), the so-called dot plot, following the March policy meeting on Wednesday. Market participants widely anticipate the US central bank to leave policy settings unchanged for the second consecutive meeting, after cutting the interest rate by 25 basis points (bps) to the 4.25%-4.5% range in December. The CME FedWatch Tool shows that investors virtually see no chance of a rate cut in March while pricing in about a 30% probability of a 25 bps reduction in May. Hence, revised forecasts and comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell could drive the US Dollar’s (USD) valuation rather than the interest rate decision itself. In December, the dot plot showed that policymakers were projecting a total of 50 bps reduction in the policy rate in 2025, while forecasting an annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 2.1% and seeing an annual Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation of 2.5% at year-end. “The FOMC is broadly expected to keep its police stance unchanged for a second consecutive meeting,” said TD Securities analysts previewing the Fed event. “Based on the still steady signal provided by the labor market amid still sticky inflation, we expect Chair Powell to double-down on his message of patience regarding policy decisions. We also do not anticipate significant changes to the Fed's SEP or to QT plans for now,” they added. Economic Indicator FOMC Economic Projections At four of its eight scheduled annual meetings, the Federal Reserve (Fed) releases a report detailing its projections for inflation, the unemployment rate and economic growth over the next two years and, more importantly, a breakdown of each Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) member's individual interest rate forecasts. Read more. Next release: Wed Mar 19, 2025 18:00 Frequency: IrregularConsensus: -Previous: -Source: Federal Reserve When will the Fed announce its interest rate decision and how could it affect EUR/USD? The US Federal Reserve is scheduled to announce its interest rate decision and publish the monetary policy statement with the revised SEP on Wednesday at 18:00 GMT. This will be followed by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference starting at 18:30 GMT. Disappointing macroeconomic data releases from the US, combined with US President Donald Trump’s tariff announcements, revived fears over the US economy tipping into recession. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow model, the US economy is projected to contract at an annual rate of 2.4% in the first quarter. In case the dot plot shows a rate cut projection of 75 bps in 2025, this could be seen as a dovish shift in the rate outlook and trigger another leg of the USD selloff. On the flip side, a hawkish revision in the SEP, with officials forecasting a single 25 bps cut, could boost the currency. If the interest rate projection remains unchanged, investors will scrutinize inflation and growth forecasts. A downward revision to growth expectations could hurt the USD, while an upward revision to inflation forecasts, without a noticeable change in the GDP estimates, could support the USD in the near term. Powell’s comments could also impact the USD’s performance. If he downplays concerns over an economic downturn and puts more emphasis on the uncertainty surrounding the inflation outlook, citing Trump’s administration’s tariffs, the USD is likely to outperform its rivals in the near term. On the contrary, if Powell acknowledges signs of a worsening growth outlook, the USD is likely to have a difficult time finding demand. Eren Sengezer, European Session Lead Analyst at FXStreet, provides a short-term technical outlook for EUR/USD: “EUR/USD remains technically bullish in the near term as it stays in the upper half of the two-month-old ascending regression channel. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the daily chart holds near 70, reaffirming the bullish stance.” “On the upside, 1.1000 (upper limit of the ascending channel, round level) aligns as a key resistance level before 1.1100 (static level, round level) and 1.1180 (static level from October 2024). Looking south, the first support level could be spotted at 1.0770 (mid-point of the ascending channel) before 1.0720, where the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is located. A daily close below the latter support could attract technical sellers and open the door for an extended slide toward 1.0645 (20-day SMA).” Dot Plot FAQs What is the Federal Reserve “Dot Plot”? The “Dot Plot” is the popular name of the interest-rate projections by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the US Federal Reserve (Fed), which implements monetary policy. These are published in the Summary of Economic Projections, a report in which FOMC members also release their individual projections on economic growth, the unemployment rate and inflation for the current year and the next few ones. The document consists of a chart plotting interest-rate projections, with each FOMC member’s forecast represented by a dot. The Fed also adds a table summarizing the range of forecasts and the median for each indicator. This makes it easier for market participants to see how policymakers expect the US economy to perform in the near, medium and long term. When does the Federal Reserve publish the “Dot Plot”? The US Federal Reserve publishes the “Dot Plot” once every other meeting, or in four of the eight yearly scheduled meetings. The Summary of Economic Projections report is published along with the monetary policy decision. Why is the “Dot Plot” important for markets? The “Dot Plot” gives a comprehensive insight into the expectations from Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers. As projections reflect each official’s projection for interest rates at the end of each year, it is considered a key forward-looking indicator. By looking at the “Dot Plot” and comparing the data to current interest-rate levels, market participants can see where policymakers expect rates to head to and the overall direction of monetary policy. As projections are released quarterly, the “Dot Plot” is widely used as a guide to figure out the terminal rate and the possible timing of a policy pivot. How does data in the “Dot Plot” affect the US Dollar? The most market-moving data in the “Dot Plot” is the projection of the federal funds rate. Any change compared with previous projections is likely to influence the US Dollar (USD) valuation. Generally, if the “Dot Plot” shows that policymakers expect higher interest rates in the near term, this tends to be bullish for USD. Likewise, if projections point to lower rates ahead, the USD is likely to weaken.

11:31 Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data
Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Wednesday, according to FXStreet data.

11:29 Gold hits another new all-time high ahead of the Fed
Gold’s price (XAU/USD) corrects slightly lower to near $3,030 at the time of writing on Wednesday after stretching higher and hitting a new all-time high at $3,045 earlier in the day.

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Traders sent Gold higher on top of geopolitical news from Turkey and Ukraine. Gold’s rally starts to look a bit overdone and might see a pullback soon. Gold’s price (XAU/USD) corrects slightly lower to near $3,030 at the time of writing on Wednesday after stretching higher and hitting a new all-time high at $3,045 earlier in the day. The positive move came after headlines emerged that authorities detained Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, President Tayyip Erdogan's main political rival, on charges including corruption and aiding a terrorist group. This headline adds to the geopolitical drivers in Gold after Tuesday’s phone call between United States (US) President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, which did not lead to a ceasefire deal or a major breakthrough. President Trump and President Putin agreed to an immediate pause in strikes against energy infrastructure in the Ukraine war. However, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said late Tuesday that talks about Ukraine without Ukraine will not bring about results. Nevertheless, traders in the precious metal might face some headwinds later this Wednesday as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is set to announce its policy rate decision and publish the Summary of Economic Projections update. After the meeting, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell will comment in a press conference. With the Trump policy in the backdrop, markets will want to know how many, if any, rate cuts the Fed members have penciled in for 2025 and beyond. Daily digest market movers: All eyes on the FedDespite almost euphoric comments from US President Trump and Russian President Putin, several analysts see the recent ‘slim’ ceasefire deal as a small victory, not a step forward to peace. Putin and Trump agreed that there will be no attacks on energy objects for 30 days, Bloomberg reports. According to the CME Fedwatch tool, the odds that the Fed will keep interest rates at the current range of 4.25-4.50% on Wednesday are 99%. Meanwhile, rate cut odds for June’s meeting are 64.8%. Traders are paring back their bets on further monetary policy easing this year, which would weigh on the precious metal as higher yields are bearish for Gold. On the other hand, there are still concerns about a US slowdown as President Donald Trump’s tariff agenda weighs on consumer sentiment. Investors have been slashing holdings of US equities by the most on record, according to Bank of America's latest survey, underscoring a massive rotation underway in markets, Bloomberg reports. Technical Analysis: It could get nastyGold ekes out another fresh all-time high in early Wednesday ahead of the Fed’s interest rate decision. The tail risk in the event is if the Fed’s dot plot (a chart where every voting FOMC member pencils in where they see the monetary policy rate for 2025 and beyond) pencils in fewer rate cuts than markets anticipate. That would boost the fear of a recession or stagflation in the US, with rates remaining elevated to fight the surging inflation caused by a trade war amid tariffs, and would be negative for Gold. Regarding technical levels, the new all-time high at $3,045 is the first level to beat. Next for this Wednesday is the R1 resistance at $3,048, just below the $3,050 round number. Once through there, the R2 resistance comes in at $3,063. On the downside, the intraday Pivot Point at $3,024 is the first line of defense, followed by the S1 support near $3,010 ahead of the $3,000 level. In case the $3,000 mark snaps, look for $2,985 as big support. XAU/USD: Daily Chart Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

11:22 EUR/USD is trading right below 1.0900 – BBH
EUR/USD is down near 1.0900, reflecting the broad bounce in USD, BBH FX analysts report.

EUR/USD is down near 1.0900, reflecting the broad bounce in USD, BBH FX analysts report. Eurozone disinflationary process remains well on track "The Eurozone Q4 labor costs print is today’s domestic focus. The ECB projects labor costs growth to slow to 4.1% y/y in Q4 vs. 4.6% in Q3 and drift down to its historical average of 1.7% by 2027." "The Eurozone disinflationary process remains well on track. Markets price-in about 50% odds of a 25bps ECB cut to 2.25% at the April 17 meeting and a total of 50bps of easing over the next 12 months. Looser fiscal policy in Germany and the EU’s military build-up plan lessens the need for the ECB to slash rates more than is currently priced-in which is EUR supportive."

11:19 USD/JPY inches towards the descending trend line drawn since January – Société Générale
USD/JPY has embarked on a rebound after forming a trough at 146.50 recently, Société Générale's FX analysts note.

USD/JPY has embarked on a rebound after forming a trough at 146.50 recently, Société Générale's FX analysts note. Below 148.30, the phase of decline can resume "It is inching towards the descending trend line drawn since January. Recent pivot high of 151.30/152.00, which is also the 200-DMA is a potential hurdle. Cross above this will be crucial to confirm a larger up move. If the pair fails to defend the low achieved earlier this week at 148.30, the phase of decline could resume."

11:18 Palladium price today: Rare metals down at the start of the European session
Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) trade with a negative tone at the beginning of Wednesday, according to FXStreet data.

11:14 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD depreciates toward $33.50 ahead of Fed policy decision
Silver price (XAG/USD) retreated after reaching a five-month high of $34.23 on Tuesday, trading around $33.70 per troy ounce during European hours on Wednesday.

11:09 NZD/USD: Rapid buildup in momentum continues to suggest NZD strength – UOB Group
New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is likely to trade in a range between 0.5790 and 0.5840.

New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is likely to trade in a range between 0.5790 and 0.5840. In the longer run, rapid buildup in momentum continues to suggest NZD strength; the level to watch is 0.5870, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. The level to watch is 0.5870 24-HOUR VIEW: "On Monday, NZD surged to a high of 0.5826. Yesterday (Tuesday), when NZD was at 0.5820, we indicated that 'While further NZD strength is not ruled out, any advance is likely part of a higher 0.5785/0.5845 range. In other words, NZD is unlikely to break clearly above 0.5845 today.' NZD then traded in a narrower range than expected (0.5798/0.5831), closing marginally lower by 0.02% at 0.5821. We continue to expect range trading today, probably between 0.5790 and 0.5840." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "There is not much to add to our update from yesterday (18 Mar, spot at 0.5820). As highlighted, the recent 'rapid buildup in momentum continues to suggest NZD strength, and the level to watch on the upside is 0.5870.' We will continue to hold the same view as long as the ‘strong support’ at 0.5755 (level was at 0.5740 yesterday) is intact."

11:01 EUR/USD to consolidate around current levels in the near term – Danske Bank
EUR/USD consolidated above the 1.09 mark after the German Bundestag approved the large fiscal package with a 2/3 majority, Danske Bank's FX analyst Jens Nærvig Pedersen reports.

EUR/USD consolidated above the 1.09 mark after the German Bundestag approved the large fiscal package with a 2/3 majority, Danske Bank's FX analyst Jens Nærvig Pedersen reports. Risks still skewed to the upside "This was largely expected by markets and the reaction in EUR/USD was muted. The package must now also pass the Bundesrat, which is the upper chamber of the parliament, in a vote on Friday. Here the bill is also expected to pass. " "Today, focus turns to the FOMC meeting where we do not anticipate strong market reactions. We do not expect Powell to guide explicitly towards a cut in May, but we do still anticipate three 25bp reductions later in the year starting from June. "We expect EUR/USD to consolidate around current levels in the near term, with risks still skewed to the upside. The key risk to further EUR/USD upside is that if upcoming data fails to validate market concerns about the US economy, the USD could rebound quickly."

10:57 AUD/USD: Chance for AUD to break above 0.6410 – UOB Group
Australian Dollar (AUD) is likely to consolidate between 0.6340 and 0.6385.

Australian Dollar (AUD) is likely to consolidate between 0.6340 and 0.6385. In the longer run, chance for AUD to break above 0.6410; a break of this significant resistance level could potentially trigger a rapid rise, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. A clear break above 0.6410 can potentially trigger a rise 24-HOUR VIEW: "We expected AUD to 'test 0.6410' yesterday, but we pointed out that 'due to the deeply overbought conditions, it is unclear whether AUD can break clearly above this level.' Our expectation did not turn out, as AUD dropped from 0.6391 to 0.6344 before closing at 0.6361 (- 0.38%). The price action is likely part of a consolidation phase. Today, we expect AUD to trade between 0.6340 and 0.6385." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Yesterday (18 Mar, spot at 0.6385), we revised our outlook to positive, indicating that 'there is a chance for AUD to break above 0.6410.' We also indicated the following: 'The chance of AUD breaking above 0.6410 will remain intact as long as the ‘strong support’ level, currently at 0.6320, is not breached. Note that 0.6410 is a significant resistance, and a clear break above this level could potentially trigger a sharp and rapid rise.' Our update remains valid."

10:56 NZD/USD retreats further from YTD peak, slides below 0.5800 ahead of Fed
The NZD/USD pair meets with some supply on Wednesday and moves away from the year-to-date (YTD) top, around the 0.5830 region touched the previous day.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}NZD/USD attracts some sellers amid a modest USD bounce from a multi-month low.Fed rate cut bets should cap any meaningful USD gains and lend support to the pair.Traders might also opt to wait for the outcome of a two-day FOMC policy meeting.The NZD/USD pair meets with some supply on Wednesday and moves away from the year-to-date (YTD) top, around the 0.5830 region touched the previous day. The selling bias picks up pace during the early European session and drags spot prices below the 0.5800 mark in the last hour. The US Dollar (USD) gains some positive traction and for now, seems to have snapped a three-day losing streak to a five-month low, which, in turn, is seen as a key factor exerting downward pressure on the NZD/USD pair. The intraday USD uptick could be attributed to some repositioning trade ahead of the key central bank event risk – the outcome of a two-day FOMC meeting. Adding to this, the risk of a further escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East further benefits the safe-haven buck and contributes to driving flows away from the perceived riskier Kiwi. Any meaningful USD appreciation, however, seems elusive in the wake of the growing acceptance that the Fed would lower borrowing costs several times this year amid concerns over a tariff-driven US economic slowdown. Hence, the market focus will remain glued to the Fed's updated economic projections, which include the so-called do pot. Apart from this, Fed Chair Jerome Powell's remarks would be scrutinized for cues about the future rate-cut path, which, in turn, will influence the USD price dynamics and help in determining the near-term trajectory for the NZD/USD pair. Hence, it will be prudent to wait for strong follow-through selling before confirming that the currency pair's recent move-up witnessed over the past two weeks or so has run its course and positioning for deeper losses. Even from a technical perspective, this week's sustained breakout above the 0.5760 strong horizontal barrier favors bullish traders and supports prospects for the emergence of some dip-buying. This, in turn, should help limit the downside for the NZD/USD pair. New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

10:53 GBP: Not that strong in the crosses – ING
GBP/USD broke the key 1.300 resistance yesterday on the back of USD weakness, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

GBP/USD broke the key 1.300 resistance yesterday on the back of USD weakness, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes. EUR/GBP remains close to its January 2025 high of 0.846 "In the crosses, the GBP is not showing particular strength, and EUR/GBP remains close to its January 2025 high of 0.846." "We don’t expect tomorrow’s Bank of England meeting to be a major event for sterling. As discussed here, we expect a consensus hold with only two members voting for a cut." "The UK budget event later this month is the biggest risk event for the pound. GBP negative scenarios are predominant as Chancellor Rachel Reeves may either slash spending, raise taxes or risk unnerving the gilt market. We see upside risks to 0.85 in EUR/GBP near term."

10:47 GBP/USD: Expected to rachet higher in an uneven manner between 1.2955 and 1.3030 – UOB Group
Pound Sterling (GBP) is expected to rachet higher in an uneven manner between 1.2955 and 1.3030.

Pound Sterling (GBP) is expected to rachet higher in an uneven manner between 1.2955 and 1.3030. In the longer run, further rise in GBP seems likely; modest increase in momentum suggests 1.3050 may not come into view so soon, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Further rise in GBP seems likely 24-HOUR VIEW: "GBP rose and tested the 1.3000 level two days ago. Yesterday, we highlighted the following: 'While the rapid rise appears overstretched, as long as 1.2955 (minor support is at 1.2970) is not breached, there is a chance for GBP to break above 1.3000. Given the overbought conditions, it might not be able to maintain a foothold above this level. The next resistance at 1.3050 is unlikely to come under threat.' GBP subsequently rose to 1.3005, pulled back sharply to 1.2953 and then rose back up to 1.3010. GBP closed at 1.3003, slightly higher by 0.10%. While the outlook for today is mixed after the sharp swings. That said, having breached 1.3000, the underlying tone seems firm. Today, we expect GBP to ratchet higher in an uneven manner between 1.2955 and 1.3030." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Tracking the strong rise in GBP since early this month, in our most recent narrative from last Thursday (13 Mar, spot at 1.2955), we indicated that 'to continue to rise, GBP must break and remain above 1.3000.' Yesterday (18 Mar), GBP rose to 1.3010, closing marginally above 1.3000 (1.3003, +0.10%). While further rise in GBP seems likely, the modest increase in momentum suggests the next resistance at 1.3050 may not come into view so soon. Overall, only a breach of 1.2930 (no change in ‘strong support’ level from yesterday) would mean that GBP is not rising further."

10:40 USD: Fed may defy dovish bets for now – ING
The US Dollar (USD) enters FOMC day with a good deal of bearish momentum.

The US Dollar (USD) enters FOMC day with a good deal of bearish momentum. Despite Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s attempts to quell recessionary fears, high-frequency indicators have kept pointing down and still favour a rotation away from US assets. The latest Fund Manager Survey from Bank of America showed a record gyration from US to European equities and 69% of respondents believed US exceptionalism is over. One positive takeaway for the dollar is the radical increase in pessimistic views on global growth too, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes. DXY rebounds may be capped around 104.0 "For the near term, the best chance at a rebound for the greenback is probably today’s FOMC announcement. The chances of a cut are none, but the recent repricing in the USD curve suggests some dovish tweaks to forward guidance are expected by the market. We are not convinced. The Fed has an inflation and employment mandate, and neither of those has declined enough to warrant a dovish shift." "Growing pessimism on growth and consumption still needs to face the hard data test, and if the US administration can stomach the equity correction, the Fed probably can too. Things should change in the coming months as the US slowdown (but not a recession, in our view) unfolds, and we expect two cuts in 2H25. However, the FOMC median dot plot may not be revised lower today, so still signals only one cut in 2025." "Markets will be sensitive to growth and inflation forecasts too, but if we are right with our dot plot call and Fed Chair Jay Powell retains a cautious tone on easing, the dollar should be able to rebound. Still, to have a sustained USD recovery, US macro sentiment must start to stabilise. Until that happens, DXY rebounds may be capped around 104.0."

10:36 USD/TRY maintains position near 39.00 amid escalating political risks in Turkey
USD/TRY retreats from its record high of 41.70, reached during early European trading hours on Wednesday, hovering around 38.70 at the time of writing.

10:34 Crude oil price today: WTI price bearish at European opening
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price falls on Wednesday, early in the European session.

10:27 EUR/USD: To trade in a choppy manner between 1.0905 and 1.0970 – UOB Group
Euro (EUR) could trade in a choppy manner between 1.0905 and 1.0970 vs US Dollar (USD).

Euro (EUR) could trade in a choppy manner between 1.0905 and 1.0970 vs US Dollar (USD). In the longer run, EUR must break and close above 1.0950 before resuming its rally, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Chance for EUR to break clearly above 1.0950 24-HOUR VIEW: "Following the rise in EUR to 1.0929 two days, we indicated the following yesterday: 'Despite the relatively strong advance, upward momentum has not increased significantly. That said, there is no sign of an imminent pullback just yet. Today, EUR could test last week’s high, near 1.0950. Currently, it does not appear to possess enough momentum to break clearly above this level. The next major resistance at 1.1000 is unlikely to come under threat. Support is at 1.0905; a breach of 1.0885 would suggest the current upward pressure has eased.' In the London session, EUR rose to 1.0954, pulling back quickly to 1.0891. It then rebounded to close slightly higher at 1.0940 (+0.20%). The choppy price action has resulted in a mixed outlook. Today, EUR could continue to trade in a choppy manner, but the firmed underlying tone suggests a higher range of 1.0905/1.0970." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Yesterday (18 Mar, spot at 1.0920), we highlighted that the recent increase in short-term momentum 'is not sufficient to indicate that EUR is ready to resume its rally.' We added, “For that to happen, EUR 'must break and close above 1.0950.' EUR then rose to 1.0954 before closing at 1.0943 (+0.20%). The slight increase in momentum is still not enough to indicate a sustained rise. However, there is still a chance for EUR to break clearly above 1.0950 as long as it holds above 1.0855 (no change in ‘strong support’ level)."

10:17 EUR: Peak optimism still in the price – ING
As widely expected, the German Bundestag approved the debt break constitutional change yesterday.

As widely expected, the German Bundestag approved the debt break constitutional change yesterday. There are few doubts that fiscal reform will also make it through the Upper House (Bundesrat) and ultimately be signed into law. The euro has fully priced in the success of the spending reform and appears close to peak market optimism on the fiscal boost, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes. EUR/USD to inch back below 1.090 "We must consider that Germany still doesn’t have a government, and coalition talks may prove tricky. Incidentally, while the debt break reform unlocks long-term fiscal spending opportunities, structural woes (competitiveness, innovation) are still to be addressed. Our view remains that the second quarter will bring a reality check for European optimism. With US tariffs likely to hit from the start of April, euro bullish momentum may well fade." "The other key theme for the euro remains the direction of Ukraine-Russia peace talks. Yesterday, Russian President Putin agreed to reduce the number of attacks on Ukraine in a phone call with Trump. However, Putin is still requiring a complete halt to US armaments to Ukraine, and refusing to agree to a 30-day truce for now. Also on this topic, the euro is pricing in a good deal of optimism." "Should we see a truce finally being agreed, the extra support to the euro may not be substantial and probably quite conditional on the agreed terms. As we are bullish on the dollar ahead of today’s FOMC risk event, we renew our call for EUR/USD to fail a break above 1.100 and instead inch back below 1.090."

10:16 EUR: Peak optimism still in the price – ING
As widely expected, the German Bundestag approved the debt break constitutional change yesterday.

10:11 Austria HICP (YoY) came in at 3.4%, below expectations (3.5%) in February
Austria HICP (YoY) came in at 3.4%, below expectations (3.5%) in February

10:05 Austria HICP (MoM) came in at 0.5% below forecasts (0.6%) in February
Austria HICP (MoM) came in at 0.5% below forecasts (0.6%) in February

10:01 South Africa Consumer Price Index (MoM) increased to 0.9% in February from previous 0.3%
South Africa Consumer Price Index (MoM) increased to 0.9% in February from previous 0.3%

10:01 South Africa Consumer Price Index (YoY): 3.2% (February)
South Africa Consumer Price Index (YoY): 3.2% (February)

09:59 EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Falls to near 162.50; next support appears at nine-day EMA
EUR/JPY pauses its three-day winning streak, hovering around 162.60 during early European trading on Wednesday.

09:58 Pound Sterling trades with caution against US Dollar as Fed policy takes centre stage
The Pound Sterling (GBP) struggles to extend the rally above the key level of 1.3000 against the US Dollar (USD) in European trading hours on Wednesday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Pound Sterling struggles around 1.3000 against the US Dollar ahead of the Fed’s monetary policy decision, dot plot, and economic projections.Investors expect the Fed and BoE to keep interest rates steady this week.Market sentiment remains cautious as US President Trump is poised to impose reciprocal tariffs on April 2.The Pound Sterling (GBP) struggles to extend the rally above the key level of 1.3000 against the US Dollar (USD) in European trading hours on Wednesday. The GBP/USD pair trades cautiously ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy decision at 18:00 GMT. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the Fed is certain to keep interest rates unchanged in the range of 4.25%-4.50% for the second time in a row. Therefore, the major catalyst for the US Dollar will be the Fed’s dot plot, which shows where policymakers see the Federal funds rate heading in the medium and longer term, and the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). It would be interesting to know whether Fed officials will see easing inflationary pressures and declining consumer confidence in the current scenario or accelerating consumer inflation expectations due to United States (US) President Donald Trump’s economic policies while forecasting the monetary policy outlook. In February, the annual core Consumer Price Index (CPI) – which excludes volatile food and energy prices – rose by 3.1%, the lowest level seen since April 2021. According to analysts at Fitch, tariff shocks are estimated to “accelerate inflationary pressures by one point percent” in the near term. This scenario will discourage Fed officials from cutting interest rates before the last quarter of the year. Meanwhile, the CME FedWatch tool shows that the Fed will cut interest rates in the June meeting. Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling turns cautious ahead of UK employment, BoE policy The Pound Sterling trades with caution against its peers ahead of the United Kingdom (UK) labor market data for the three months ending January and the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy decision, scheduled for Thursday. Investors will pay close attention to the Average Earnings data, a key measure of wage growth that has contributed significantly to the high inflation in the services sector. UK’s leading global provider of people data, analytics, and insight firm Brightmine showed on Tuesday that the pay growth has slowed as business owners are cautious before the implementation of an increase in payroll taxes from April. UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves announced an increase in employers’ contribution to National Insurance (NI) from 13.8% to 15% in the Autumn Budget. Brightmine also said that a significant number of firms have planned a hiring freeze or team restructuring in response to the government’s decision to increase employers’ social security contributions, with some considering pay freezes and delays to increases, Reuters report. Meanwhile, economists expect Average Earnings (Excluding and Including) bonuses to have grown almost steadily by 5.9%. The BoE is expected to keep interest rates steady at 4.5%, with a 7-2 vote split. BoE Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members Catherine Mann and Swati Dhingra are expected to support an interest rate cut, while the other seven policymakers will vote to keep rates unchanged. Investors will pay close attention to BoE Governor Andrew Bailey’s commentary on the UK economic outlook amidst US President Trump’s tariff policies. On Tuesday, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed in an interview with Fox Business that reciprocal tariffs would become effective on April 2. Bessent added that he is optimistic some of the tariffs may not have to go on because a deal can be “pre-negotiated” or that once countries receive their “reciprocal tariff number”, they will come to us and want to “negotiate it down”. Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling sees upside above 1.3000 The Pound Sterling looks for a fresh trigger to extend its two-month rally above the key level of 1.3000 against the US Dollar on Wednesday. GBP/USD bulls take a breather as the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) reached overbought levels above 70.00. However, this doesn’t reflect that the bullish trend is over. The upside trend could resume once the momentum oscillator cools down to near 60.00. Advancing 20-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) near 1.2830 and 1.2690, respectively, suggest that the overall trend is bullish. Looking down, the 50% Fibo retracement at 1.2770 and the 38.2% Fibo retracement at 1.2614 will act as key support zones for the pair. On the upside, the October 15 high of 1.3100 will act as a key resistance zone. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

09:31 Indonesia Bank Indonesia Rate in line with forecasts (5.75%)
Indonesia Bank Indonesia Rate in line with forecasts (5.75%)

08:57 US Dollar Index Price Forecast: Remains bearish near 103.50 despite recent recovery
The US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the US Dollar (USD) measured against a basket of six world currencies, attracts some buyers to around 103.50 during the early European session on Wednesday.

08:55 Forex Today: BoJ maintains status quo, focus shifts to Fed
Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, March 19: Investors opt to remain on the sidelines while waiting for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to announce monetary policy decisions following the March meeting.

08:35 BoJ's Ueda: Will keep adjusting degree of easing if our economic, price outlook is to be realised
Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo speaks at the post-policy meeting press conference on Wednesday, explaining the Bank’s decision to keep the interest rate steady at 0.50%.

07:57 GBP/JPY extends the rally to near 194.50 as BoJ keeps interest rate steady
The GBP/JPY cross extends its upside to 194.40 during the early European session on Wednesday.

07:32 EUR/GBP floats above 0.8400 as Germany approves spending package, BoE’s decision looms
EUR/GBP remains steady after gaining in the previous session, hovering around 0.8420 during Asian trading hours on Wednesday.

07:28 USD/CAD moves away from two-week low set on Tuesday, retakes 1.4300 ahead of Fed
The USD/CAD pair is seen building on the overnight bounce from the 1.4260 area, or a nearly two-week low, and gaining some follow-through positive traction for the second straight day on Wednesday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}USD/CAD attracts buyers for the second straight day, though the upside seems limited.A modest USD bounce from a multi-month low is seen lending some support to the pair.Any meaningful USD upside, however, seems elusive ahead of the crucial FOMC decision. The USD/CAD pair is seen building on the overnight bounce from the 1.4260 area, or a nearly two-week low, and gaining some follow-through positive traction for the second straight day on Wednesday. Spot prices climb back above the 1.4300 mark during the Asian session, though the upside seems limited as traders might opt to wait for the outcome of the highly-anticipated FOMC policy meeting. Market consensus strongly suggests that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep the federal funds rate unchanged at the current range of 4.25% to 4.50%. Hence, the focus will be on updated economic projections and the post-meeting press conference, where comments by Fed Chair Jerome Powell will be scrutinized for cues about the future rate-cut path. This, in turn, will play a key role in influencing the US Dollar (USD) price dynamics and provide some meaningful impetus to the USD/CAD pair. Heading into the key central bank event risk, some repositioning trade assists the USD to recover slightly from its lowest level since October touched on Tuesday. Apart from this, subdued Crude Oil prices, following the previous day's late pullback from over a two-week high, undermine the commodity-linked Loonie and support the USD/CAD pair. However, the risk of a further escalation of tensions in the Middle East, which could impact supply, helps limit the downside for the black liquid. Furthermore, a surprise jump in Canada's annual inflation rate, to 2.6% in February or the highest in eight months, might hold back traders from placing aggressive bearish bets around the Canadian Dollar (CAD) and cap the USD/CAD pair. However, the fact that spot prices are holding comfortably above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) warrants some caution before positioning for an extension of the pair's recent downfall witnessed over the past week or so. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

06:54 FX option expiries for Mar 19 NY cut
FX option expiries for Mar 19 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.

FX option expiries for Mar 19 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below. EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.0750 1.9b 1.0800 2b 1.0850 1.2b 1.0900 1.8b 1.0950 2.1b 1.1150 1.2b GBP/USD: GBP amounts 1.2920 410m 1.3025 642m USD/JPY: USD amounts 147.50 452m USD/CHF: USD amounts 0.8910 450m AUD/USD: AUD amounts 0.6230 1.6b 0.6340 1.4b 0.6350 666m USD/CAD: USD amounts 1.4295 634m 1.4325 779m 1.4565 1.6b EUR/GBP: EUR amounts 0.8375 425m

06:49 USD/CHF rebounds above 0.8750, Fed rate decision in focus
The USD/CHF pair gains ground to around 0.8770 during the Asian session on Wednesday, bolstered by the renewed Greenback demand.

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Market consensus suggests that the Fed will keep its federal funds rate unchanged at the current range of 4.25% to 4.50%. Traders will focus on the Press Conference and Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), or ‘dot-plot,’ for more cues about the future interest rate path and the economic outlook. Any hawkish comments from the Fed officials could lift the Greenback against the Swiss Franc (CHF) in the near term. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the possibility of a rate reduction at the May meeting has risen to 25% from 18% a month ago.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is anticipated to cut its main policy rate by a quarter percentage point on Thursday to 0.25% and hold it there until at least 2026, according to most economists polled by Reuters. “The only significant uncertainty to the view of the SNB holding rates steady at this meeting, for me, stems from a certain dimming of the global growth picture,” said Claude Maurer, chief economist of Basel-based BAK Economics.

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday agreed to an immediate pause in strikes against energy infrastructure in the Ukraine war. However, Putin declined to sign up for the comprehensive month-long ceasefire that Trump's team recently worked out with Ukrainians in Saudi Arabia. Traders will watch the developments surrounding the full ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine. The escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the ongoing Russia and Ukraine conflict could boost the safe-haven flows, benefiting the CHF. Swiss Franc FAQs What key factors drive the Swiss Franc? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone. Why is the Swiss Franc considered a safe-haven currency? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in. How do decisions of the Swiss National Bank impact the Swiss Franc? The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF. How does economic data influence the value of the Swiss Franc? Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate. How does the Eurozone monetary policy affect the Swiss Franc? As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.

06:35 India Gold price today: Gold steadies, according to FXStreet data
Gold prices remained broadly unchanged in India on Wednesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

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The price for Gold stood at 8,451.82 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, broadly stable compared with the INR 8,445.86 it cost on Tuesday. The price for Gold was broadly steady at INR 98,580.41 per tola from INR 98,510.83 per tola a day earlier. Unit measure Gold Price in INR 1 Gram 8,451.82 10 Grams 84,518.23 Tola 98,580.41 Troy Ounce 262,881.30 2025 Gold Forecast Guide [PDF] Download your free copy of the 2025 Gold Forecast Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price bulls turn cautious ahead of the highly-anticipated FOMC decision Gold price shot to a fresh record high, around the $3,038-3,039 region on Tuesday as rising Middle East tensions and concerns about US President Donald Trump's tariff plans continue to fuel demand for the safe-haven asset. Israeli airstrikes on Hamas targets in Gaza, killing more than 400 people. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he ordered strikes because Hamas had rejected proposals to extend the ceasefire held since January. Trump has threatened to impose reciprocal and sectoral tariffs, which he said will come into effect on April 2. This comes on top of a flat 25% duty on steel and aluminum since February, fueling global trade war fears. Traders ramp up their bets that the Federal Reserve will have to lower interest rates this year by more than expected amid the rising possibility of an economic downturn on the back of the Trump administration’s aggressive policies. The current market pricing indicated the possibility that the Fed could lower borrowing costs by 25 basis points each at the June, July, and October monetary policy meetings, which further underpins the now-yielding yellow metal. The US Dollar stages a modest bounce from over a five-month low touched on Tuesday as traders opt to lighten their bearish bets ahead of the FOMC decision, scheduled to be announced later during the US session this Wednesday. The accompanying monetary policy statement and comments by Fed Chair Jerome Powell will be scrutinized closely for cues about the future rate cut path, which will drive the USD demand and influence the XAU/USD pair. FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

06:34 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD sits near multi-month top, bulls retain control near $34.00 mark
Silver (XAG/USD) consolidates in a range around the $34.00 mark during the Asian session on Wednesday and remains close to its highest level since late October touched the previous day.

06:31 Japan Capacity Utilization climbed from previous -0.2% to 4.5% in January
Japan Capacity Utilization climbed from previous -0.2% to 4.5% in January

06:31 Japan Industrial Production (YoY) declined to 2.2% in January from previous 2.6%
Japan Industrial Production (YoY) declined to 2.2% in January from previous 2.6%

06:30 Japan Industrial Production (MoM) meets expectations (-1.1%) in January
Japan Industrial Production (MoM) meets expectations (-1.1%) in January

06:27 WTI remains subdued around $66.50 amid Russian supply prospects
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price remains under pressure for the second consecutive day, trading around $66.50 per barrel during Asian trading hours on Wednesday.

05:59 EUR/USD softens below 1.0950 as Fed rate decision looms
The EUR/USD pair weakens to near 1.0935 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday, pressured by a modest recovery in the US Dollar (USD).

05:45 NZD/USD edges lower to near 0.5800 due to weakening consumer confidence
NZD/USD remains subdued for the second consecutive day, hovering around 0.5810 during Wednesday’s Asian session.

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The pair faces downward pressure following the release of New Zealand’s Q1 2025 Westpac Consumer Survey, which indicated weakening consumer confidence. Westpac New Zealand reported that its confidence index dropped to 89.2 in Q1 from 97.5 in the previous period, the lowest level since Q2 2024. The decline reflects mounting trade tensions, persistent cost-of-living pressures, and financial market volatility. However, the NZD/USD pair may find support from market optimism ahead of New Zealand’s quarterly GDP data release on Thursday. Analysts expect a modest 0.4% rebound in Q4, following two consecutive quarters of contraction. Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) remains firm, underpinned by stable Treasury yields as investors await the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decision later in the day. Markets widely anticipate the Fed will hold rates steady amid ongoing inflation concerns and economic uncertainty. The US Dollar Index (DXY) trades near 103.30, while US 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields stand at 4.04% and 4.29%, respectively. However, the Greenback faces pressure from weak US economic data and renewed tariff threats from President Donald Trump, adding to market uncertainty. Traders are closely monitoring the Fed’s updated economic projections for insights into the future path of US interest rates. Any hawkish signals could further strengthen the USD against its counterparts. New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

05:42 Gold price holds steady near all-time peak; Fed decision awaited
Gold price (XAU/USD) enters a bullish consolidation phase near the all-time peak as bulls pause for a breather and opt to wait for the outcome of a two-day FOMC policy meeting due later during the US session on Wednesday.

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A modest USD bounce caps the commodity ahead of the crucial FOMC decision.Gold price (XAU/USD) enters a bullish consolidation phase near the all-time peak as bulls pause for a breather and opt to wait for the outcome of a two-day FOMC policy meeting due later during the US session on Wednesday. Market consensus strongly suggests that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep the federal funds rate unchanged at the current range of 4.25% to 4.50%. Hence, the focus will be on updated economic projections and the post-meeting press conference, where comments by Fed Chair Jerome Powell will be scrutinized for cues about the future rate-cut path. This, in turn, will play a key role in influencing the near-term US Dollar (USD) price dynamics and provide some meaningful impetus to the non-yielding yellow metal. Heading into the key central bank event risk, some repositioning trade assists the USD in recovering slightly from its lowest level since October touched on Tuesday and acts as a headwind for the Gold price. The downside, however, remains cushioned in the wake of the uncertainty over US President Donald Trump's aggressive trade policies and their impact on the global economic outlook. Apart from this, the risk of a further escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continues to act as a tailwind for the safe-haven bullion and supports prospects for an extension of a multi-month-old uptrend. However, slightly overbought conditions on the daily chart might hold back traders from placing fresh bullish bets around the XAU/USD pair. Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price bulls turn cautious ahead of the highly-anticipated FOMC decision Gold price shot to a fresh record high, around the $3,038-3,039 region on Tuesday as rising Middle East tensions and concerns about US President Donald Trump's tariff plans continue to fuel demand for the safe-haven asset. Israeli airstrikes on Hamas targets in Gaza, killing more than 400 people. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he ordered strikes because Hamas had rejected proposals to extend the ceasefire held since January. Trump has threatened to impose reciprocal and sectoral tariffs, which he said will come into effect on April 2. This comes on top of a flat 25% duty on steel and aluminum since February, fueling global trade war fears. Traders ramp up their bets that the Federal Reserve will have to lower interest rates this year by more than expected amid the rising possibility of an economic downturn on the back of the Trump administration’s aggressive policies. The current market pricing indicated the possibility that the Fed could lower borrowing costs by 25 basis points each at the June, July, and October monetary policy meetings, which further underpins the now-yielding yellow metal. The US Dollar stages a modest bounce from over a five-month low touched on Tuesday as traders opt to lighten their bearish bets ahead of the FOMC decision, scheduled to be announced later during the US session this Wednesday. The accompanying monetary policy statement and comments by Fed Chair Jerome Powell will be scrutinized closely for cues about the future rate cut path, which will drive the USD demand and influence the XAU/USD pair. Gold price needs to consolidate before the next leg up amid slightly overbought RSI on the daily chart The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) is holding above the 70 mark, suggesting slightly overbought conditions. Heading into the key central bank event risk, this makes it prudent to wait for some near-term consolidation or a modest pullback before traders start positioning for any further appreciating move. Meanwhile, the recent breakout and acceptance above the $3,000 psychological mark suggests that the path of least resistance for the Gold price remains to the upside. Meanwhile, any corrective slide could be seen as a buying opportunity and remain limited near the $3,005-3,000 area. This is followed by support near the $2,980-2,978 region, which if broken might prompt some technical selling and drag the Gold price to the $2,956 zone. The downward trajectory could extend further towards the $2,930 intermediate support before the XAU/USD eventually drops to the $2,900 mark en route to last week's swing low, around the $2.880 region. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

05:02 EUR/JPY holds positive ground near 163.50 as BOJ holds rates steady
The EUR/JPY cross extends the rally to around 163.45 during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday.

04:48 AUD/JPY holds position above 95.00 as BoJ maintains policy, traders eye Fed decision
AUD/JPY remains firm near 95.10 during Asian trading hours on Wednesday, following the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) interest rate decision.

04:26 Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision meets forecasts (0.5%)
Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision meets forecasts (0.5%)

04:10 GBP/USD slips below 1.3000 amid firm US Dollar ahead of Fed decision
GBP/USD edges lower, trading around 1.2990 during Asian hours on Wednesday after posting gains in the previous two sessions.

03:57 Japanese Yen trades with negative bias ahead of the crucial BoJ policy decision
The Japanese Yen (JPY) edges lower during the Asian session on Wednesday in reaction to weaker-than-expected domestic data, though it lacks follow-through selling as traders seem reluctant ahead of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) decision.

03:30 Australian Dollar moves little as US Dollar remains firm ahead of Fed policy decision
The Australian Dollar (AUD) remains steady on Wednesday after experiencing losses in the previous session.

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The AUD/USD pair holds its ground as the US Dollar (USD) stays firm, supported by stable US yields ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decision later in the day. No changes in rates are expected amid persistent inflation concerns and heightened economic uncertainty. Australia’s Westpac Leading Index rose to 0.8% in February, up from 0.6% in January, reflecting continued domestic resilience despite fading currency and commodity tailwinds. The impact of tariff shocks is beginning to surface, but domestically driven factors are providing solid support. Treasurer Jim Chalmers addressed trade tensions in a speech on Tuesday, rejecting a "race to the bottom" on tariffs. Chalmers criticized the Trump administration’s trade policies as "self-defeating and self-sabotaging," emphasizing Australia’s need to focus on economic resilience rather than retaliation. He also condemned the US decision to exclude Australia from steel and aluminum tariff exemptions, calling it "disappointing, unnecessary, senseless, and wrong." On Monday, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Assistant Governor (Economic) Sarah Hunter reiterated the central bank’s cautious stance on rate cuts. The RBA’s February statement signaled a more conservative approach than market expectations, with a strong focus on monitoring US policy decisions and their potential impact on Australia’s inflation outlook. Australian Dollar remains stable as traders adopt caution ahead of Fed policy decision The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against six major currencies, is trading positively near 103.40 at the time of writing. However, the Greenback faces headwinds as weak US economic data and renewed tariff threats from President Donald Trump add to investor uncertainty. Market participants are closely watching the Federal Reserve’s updated economic projections for insights into the future path of US interest rates. Any hawkish signals from Fed policymakers could provide support for the USD against its peers. The US Census Bureau reported on Monday that Retail Sales increased by 0.2% month-over-month in February, falling short of the market expectation of 0.7%. This followed a revised decline of -1.2% in January (previously reported as -0.9%). On a yearly basis, Retail Sales grew by 3.1%, down from the revised 3.9% in January (previously 4.2%). On Tuesday, US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to an immediate pause in strikes targeting energy infrastructure in the Ukraine war. In a Truth Social post following his call with Putin, Trump stated that both sides had committed to a 30-day halt on attacks against each other's energy infrastructure, mirroring statements from the Kremlin. However, Putin declined to endorse a broader month-long ceasefire negotiated by Trump’s team with Ukrainian officials in Saudi Arabia, signaling continued tensions despite the temporary agreement on energy targets. US President Donald Trump reaffirmed plans to impose reciprocal and sectoral tariffs on April 2. Trump confirmed that there would be no exemptions for steel and aluminum and mentioned that reciprocal tariffs on specific countries would be implemented alongside auto duties. Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese confirmed that Australia will not impose reciprocal tariffs on the US, emphasizing that retaliatory measures would only raise costs for Australian consumers and fuel inflation. China introduced a special action plan over the weekend aimed at boosting consumption and improving market sentiment across the region. The plan includes measures to raise wages, encourage household spending, and stabilize stock and real estate markets. Any positive developments related to the Chinese stimulus plan could further support the AUD, given China’s role as a key trading partner for Australia. China's retail sales grew by 4.0% year-over-year in January-February, improving from December’s 3.7% increase. Meanwhile, industrial production rose 5.9% YoY during the same period, exceeding the 5.3% forecast but slightly lower than the previous reading of 6.2%. Australian Dollar finds resistance at 0.6400 near three-month highs The AUD/USD pair is trading around 0.6360 on Wednesday, maintaining its bullish trajectory as it continues to climb within the ascending channel on the daily chart. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above 50, reinforcing the positive momentum. On the upside, the AUD/USD pair may attempt to retest its three-month high of 0.6408, last reached on February 21. A breakout above this level could strengthen the bullish bias, potentially driving the pair toward the upper boundary of the ascending channel near 0.6490. Key support lies at the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 0.6334, aligned with the lower boundary of the ascending channel. Further support is seen at the 50-day EMA at 0.6311. A decisive break below this critical zone could weaken the bullish outlook, exposing the AUD/USD pair to further downside pressure toward the six-week low of 0.6187, recorded on March 5. AUD/USD: Daily Chart Australian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.09% 0.05% 0.19% 0.02% -0.01% 0.08% 0.05% EUR -0.09% -0.04% 0.13% -0.08% -0.08% -0.00% -0.03% GBP -0.05% 0.04% 0.16% -0.03% -0.04% 0.04% -0.01% JPY -0.19% -0.13% -0.16% -0.18% -0.19% -0.13% -0.15% CAD -0.02% 0.08% 0.03% 0.18% 0.00% 0.09% 0.03% AUD 0.00% 0.08% 0.04% 0.19% -0.00% 0.08% 0.08% NZD -0.08% 0.00% -0.04% 0.13% -0.09% -0.08% -0.04% CHF -0.05% 0.03% 0.00% 0.15% -0.03% -0.08% 0.04% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

03:21 USD/INR gathers strength as traders await Fed rate decision
The Indian Rupee (INR) loses ground on Wednesday after reaching over a three-week high in the previous session.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Indian Rupee softens on Wednesday’s early Asian session. Geopolitical risks and Trump’s tariff threats weigh on the INR, but persistent weakness in USD might help limit its losses. The Fed rate decision will take center stage later on Wednesday. The Indian Rupee (INR) loses ground on Wednesday after reaching over a three-week high in the previous session. The escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East weigh on the Indian currency. The upcoming reciprocal tariffs from US President Donald Trump on April 2 could also exert some selling pressure on the INR in the near term.

However, a broadly weaker Greenback and an uptick in exporter US Dollar (USD) sales could provide some support to the local currency. Additionally, India’s latest current account data, which showed a surplus in February, might contribute to the INR’s upside.

All eyes will be on the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision on Wednesday, which is expected to hold interest rates steady. Investors will closely monitor the Press Conference and Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), or ‘dot-plot’ as it might offer some hints about views on the economy and possibly the future path for interest rates. Indian Rupee softens ahead of Fed rate decision India’s Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation rose to 2.38% in February from 2.31% in January, the Ministry of Commerce and Industry reported on Monday. This figure came in hotter than the estimation of 2.36%. A White House official said late Tuesday that reciprocal tariffs still intended to take effect from April 2 US Industrial Production rose by 0.7% MoM in February, versus 0.3% prior (revised from 0.5%), according to the Federal Reserve on Tuesday. This reading came in better than the market expectation for a growth of 0.2%. Building permits in the US fell by 1.2% to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 1.456 million in February, slightly higher than market expectations of 1.450 million. It was the biggest drop in five months. US Housing Starts jumps by 11.2% to an annual rate of 1.501 million in February after plunging by 11.5% to a revised rate of 1.350 million in January. The odds of a rate cut at the May meeting have risen to 25% from 18% a month ago, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. USD/INR remains constructive in the longer term The Indian Rupee weakens on the day. In the longer term, the USD/INR pair keeps the bullish vibe on the daily chart, with the price holding above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). However, in the near term, the pair has broken out of a symmetrical triangle, while the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands below the midline near 42.60, suggesting that further downside cannot be ruled out.

The key resistance level for USD/INR is seen near the 87.00 psychological level. Consistent trading above this level could pave the way to 87.38, the high of March 11, en route to 87.53, the high of February 28.

On the flip side, the initial support level is located at 86.48, the low of March 18. A breach of the mentioned level could open the door for a move toward 86.14, the low of January 27, followed by 85.60, the low of January 6. Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.

03:15 PBOC sets USD/CNY reference rate at 7.1697 vs. 7.1733 previous
On Wednesday, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead at 7.1697 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1733 and 7.2330 Reuters estimate.

02:17 Australia Westpac Leading Index (MoM) fell from previous 0.13% to 0.06% in February
Australia Westpac Leading Index (MoM) fell from previous 0.13% to 0.06% in February

02:00 Japan Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance climbed from previous ¥-856.6B to ¥182.3B in February
Japan Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balance climbed from previous ¥-856.6B to ¥182.3B in February

01:52 Ukrain's President Zelenskyy: Talks about Ukraine without Ukraine will not bring about results
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said late Tuesday that he would support a proposal to stop strikes on energy infrastructure.

01:51 Japan Machinery Orders (MoM) dipped from previous -1.2% to -3.5% in January
Japan Machinery Orders (MoM) dipped from previous -1.2% to -3.5% in January

01:51 Japan Imports (YoY) came in at -0.7%, below expectations (0.1%) in February
Japan Imports (YoY) came in at -0.7%, below expectations (0.1%) in February

01:50 Japan Machinery Orders (YoY) came in at 4.4% below forecasts (6.9%) in January
Japan Machinery Orders (YoY) came in at 4.4% below forecasts (6.9%) in January

01:50 Japan Exports (YoY) came in at 11.4%, below expectations (12.1%) in February
Japan Exports (YoY) came in at 11.4%, below expectations (12.1%) in February

01:50 Japan Merchandise Trade Balance Total below forecasts (¥722.8B) in February: Actual (¥584.5B)
Japan Merchandise Trade Balance Total below forecasts (¥722.8B) in February: Actual (¥584.5B)

01:35 Trump and Putin agree on energy and infrastructure ceasefire in Ukraine conflict
US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday agreed to an immediate pause in strikes against energy infrastructure in the Ukraine war.

01:19 EUR/USD ticks into new multi-year high as Fed rate calls looms large
EUR/USD rose slightly on Tuesday, climbing one-fifth of one percent to continue testing the 1.0950 region.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}EUR/USD rose a scant 0.2% on Tuesday, testing 1.0950.Markets are tilted risk-on despite a high-impact Fed rate call on the cards.An update to the Fed’s own interest rate projections is due on Wednesday.EUR/USD rose slightly on Tuesday, climbing one-fifth of one percent to continue testing the 1.0950 region. Fiber clipped into a fresh 23-month high as broad-market risk appetite tilts firmly risk-on ahead of the Fed’s upcoming rate call on Wednesday. Final European Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) figures are also due on Wednesday, though the final print is expected to show no material change from the preliminary print. European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde will be making an appearance on Thursday, as the EU leaders’ summit gets underway during the back half of the trading week.Forex Today: Fed expected to keep rates unchangedThe Federal Reserve (Fed) is set to announce its latest interest rate decision on Wednesday. The CME’s FedWatch Tool indicates that market participants largely expect the Fed to maintain its current rate for the next two meetings, with a potential quarter-point rate reduction anticipated at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in June. This week, the FOMC will also release its updated interest rate forecasts, which could significantly alter expectations for rate cuts if the Fed policymakers’ outlook on interest rates diverges significantly from existing market predictions. EUR/USD price forecast From a technical viewpoint, the Stochastic Oscillator is currently in overbought territory above 80.00, though it is showing signs of flattening, indicating a reduction in bullish momentum. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) displays flat green bars, suggesting a lack of strong trend conviction. Collectively, these indicators imply that the pair may enter a consolidation phase prior to making a definitive move. Looking ahead, resistance is positioned at the 1.1000 level, which has historically served as a significant barrier. On the downside, initial support can be found around 1.0850, with more substantial support near the 20-day moving average close to 1.0800. A decline below these thresholds could trigger a corrective reaction, while consistent trading above 1.0900 would maintain the overall bullish outlook. EUR/USD daily chart Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

01:06 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD stalls below $34 as bulls struggle for momentum
Silver price rally halts for the second straight day, with bulls remaining unable to decisively clear the $34.00 figure for the second consecutive day despite registering a yearly peak of $34.23.

01:01 USD/CAD remains weak below 1.4300 ahead of Fed rate decision
The USD/CAD pair loses traction to near 1.4300 during the late American session on Tuesday, pressured by the weaker US Dollar (USD) and lower US yields.

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The latest Canadian inflation data has added to the challenges faced by the Bank of Canada (BoC). The annual inflation rate, as measured by the change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), climbed to 2.6% in February from 1.9% in January, Statistics Canada reported on Tuesday. This reading came in hotter than the market expectation of 2.1%.

The CPI rose 1.1% MoM in February, compared to 0.1% in January, hotter than the 0.6% expected. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.4% MoM in February, matching January's increase.

Currency swaps put the chance of a pause on interest rate cuts at 59%, according to Reuters, while economists' forecasts are mixed. The Canadian Dollar (CAD) attracts some buyers in an immediate reaction to the hotter inflation data.

The Greenback remains under selling pressure due to fears of an economic slowdown in the United States. The Fed is expected to hold its monetary policy stance at its March meeting on Wednesday amid persistent inflation concerns and heightened economic uncertainty. Traders will keep an eye on the new economic projections from Fed officials for more cues about the path of US interest rates. Any hawkish comments from the Fed policymakers could lift the USD against the CAD in the near term.

"The SEP (Summary of Economic Projections) will be the most interesting aspect, I imagine, with near-term inflation expectations likely nudged higher, and growth projections marked down a touch, though conviction behind those forecasts is going to be lacking, amid the ever-changing macro outlook," said Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

01:00 Bank of Japan set to hold interest rates unchanged in March
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is on track to keep the short-term interest rate steady at 0.50% following its two-day March monetary policy review on Wednesday.

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50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Bank of Japan is expected to hold interest rates at 0.50% on Wednesday.The focus will be on the BoJ’s hints on the timing and scope of future rate hikes.The Japanese Yen is set to rock on BoJ policy announcements-induced volatility.The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is on track to keep the short-term interest rate steady at 0.50% following its two-day March monetary policy review on Wednesday. Any signals on the timing and the scope of future rate hikes by the BoJ will likely infuse intense volatility around the Japanese Yen (JPY). What to expect from the BoJ interest rate decision? The BoJ is widely expected to pause its rate-hiking cycle this month after raising its policy rate to 0.50%, the highest level in 17 years, from 0.25% in January on the view that Japan was progressing toward achieving its 2% inflation target. Just before the BoJ’s January policy meeting, US President Donald Trump returned to the White House and proceeded with the proposed tariffs on China, Canada and Mexico. Trump’s protectionism has triggered a tariff war globally, throwing major central banks worldwide in a dilemma. Though rising inflationary pressures globally due to Trump’s tariff could be a boon for the BoJ hawks, policymakers remain wary of Japanese economic prospects after the final Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased 0.6% on a quarterly basis in the fourth quarter of 2024, a slower pace than the 0.7% expansion initially reported. Despite escalating trade war and economic slowdown fears, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda and his colleagues continued to hint at further rate hikes if inflation moves sustainably toward its 2% target. "Long-term interest rates move on various factors. But the biggest determinant is the market’s forecast on the outlook for our short-term policy rate," Ueda told parliament on March 12, emphasizing the Bank’s resolve to keep raising short-term interest rates. This narrative seems to be backed by Japan’s inflation remaining at its highest level since January 2023. The annual National Consumer Price Index (CPI) jumped 4% in January from December’s 3.6% print. The so-called “core-core” inflation rate, which strips out prices of fresh food and energy and is closely monitored by the BoJ, rose slightly to 2.5% in the same period from 2.4% in the month before. Further, the country’s 10-year government bond yields recently surged to their highest level since October 2008, anticipating higher inflationary pressures. At the same time, the Japanese Yen (JPY) reached five-month highs against the US Dollar (USD). More so, Japan's average monthly household spending rose 0.8% year-on-year (YoY) in inflation-adjusted real terms in January, marking the second consecutive month of growth. The elevated cost of living brings closer scrutiny to the initial result of the spring wage negotiations (Shunto) announced on Friday. Japan's largest trade union group Rengo’s first-round data shows an average wage hike of 5.46% for fiscal 2025, compared to the demand of a 6.09% hike. The results, however, came in above the last year’s 5.28% raise. These factors continue to raise expectations of rate hikes by the Japanese central bank in the upcoming months. The latest Bloomberg survey of economists showed that “July remained the favorite choice for the next hike with 48% expecting a move then, dropping from 56% in the previous survey.“ Analysts at BBH said: “The two-day Bank of Japan meeting ends Wednesday with a widely expected hold. The bank just hiked rates 25 bp at the last meeting in January.” “BoJ Governor Ueda has cautioned that the policy path will be guided by checking the impact of rate hikes already undertaken, which argues against back-to-back rate hikes. The swaps market is pricing in the next 25 bp rate increase for September,” the analysts added. How could the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision affect USD/JPY? If the BoJ reiterates that it will remain data-dependent and decides on a meeting-by-meeting basis, the Japanese Yen will likely resume its recent bearish momentum against the US Dollar (USD), driving USD/JPY back toward the March high of 151.31. On the contrary, USD/JPY could fall hard toward 146.50 on a fresh JPY rally if the BoJ debates the next rate hike as soon as May due to concerns about inflationary pressure from wage gains, stubborn rises in food costs, and the trade war's impact. Citing a source familiar with the BoJ's thinking, Reuters reported last week, "Japan's economy and price developments appear on track, but overseas risks have risen.” "The heightening global uncertainty is a concern and could affect the BoJ's rate-hike timing," the source said, a view echoed by two more sources. However, any knee-jerk reaction to the BoJ policy announcements could be reversed once Governor Ueda addresses the post-policy meeting press conference at 6:30 GMT. From a technical perspective, Dhwani Mehta, Asian Session Lead Analyst at FXStreet, notes: “USD/JPY appears at a critical juncture, exposed to two-way risks in the lead up to the BoJ’s decision. The pair has recaptured the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 149.14, but the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains beneath 50 despite the recent upswing.” “A hawkish BoJ hold could revive the USD/JPY downtrend, targeting the March 13 low of 147.41. The next support is seen at the 147.00 threshold. A sustained break below that level would challenge the five-month low of 146.54. On the flip side, buyers need acceptance above the 150.00 psychological level to extend the uptrend toward the March high of 151.31. The 200-day SMA at 151.93 will act as a tough nut to crack thereafter,” Dhwani adds. Economic Indicator BoJ Interest Rate Decision The Bank of Japan (BoJ) announces its interest rate decision after each of the Bank’s eight scheduled annual meetings. Generally, if the BoJ is hawkish about the inflationary outlook of the economy and raises interest rates it is bullish for the Japanese Yen (JPY). Likewise, if the BoJ has a dovish view on the Japanese economy and keeps interest rates unchanged, or cuts them, it is usually bearish for JPY. Read more. Next release: Wed Mar 19, 2025 03:00 Frequency: IrregularConsensus: 0.5%Previous: 0.5%Source: Bank of Japan Central banks FAQs What does a central bank do? Central Banks have a key mandate which is making sure that there is price stability in a country or region. Economies are constantly facing inflation or deflation when prices for certain goods and services are fluctuating. Constant rising prices for the same goods means inflation, constant lowered prices for the same goods means deflation. It is the task of the central bank to keep the demand in line by tweaking its policy rate. For the biggest central banks like the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) or the Bank of England (BoE), the mandate is to keep inflation close to 2%. What does a central bank do when inflation undershoots or overshoots its projected target? A central bank has one important tool at its disposal to get inflation higher or lower, and that is by tweaking its benchmark policy rate, commonly known as interest rate. On pre-communicated moments, the central bank will issue a statement with its policy rate and provide additional reasoning on why it is either remaining or changing (cutting or hiking) it. Local banks will adjust their savings and lending rates accordingly, which in turn will make it either harder or easier for people to earn on their savings or for companies to take out loans and make investments in their businesses. When the central bank hikes interest rates substantially, this is called monetary tightening. When it is cutting its benchmark rate, it is called monetary easing. Who decides on monetary policy and interest rates? A central bank is often politically independent. Members of the central bank policy board are passing through a series of panels and hearings before being appointed to a policy board seat. Each member in that board often has a certain conviction on how the central bank should control inflation and the subsequent monetary policy. Members that want a very loose monetary policy, with low rates and cheap lending, to boost the economy substantially while being content to see inflation slightly above 2%, are called ‘doves’. Members that rather want to see higher rates to reward savings and want to keep a lit on inflation at all time are called ‘hawks’ and will not rest until inflation is at or just below 2%. Is there a president or head of a central bank? Normally, there is a chairman or president who leads each meeting, needs to create a consensus between the hawks or doves and has his or her final say when it would come down to a vote split to avoid a 50-50 tie on whether the current policy should be adjusted. The chairman will deliver speeches which often can be followed live, where the current monetary stance and outlook is being communicated. A central bank will try to push forward its monetary policy without triggering violent swings in rates, equities, or its currency. All members of the central bank will channel their stance toward the markets in advance of a policy meeting event. A few days before a policy meeting takes place until the new policy has been communicated, members are forbidden to talk publicly. This is called the blackout period.

00:50 USD/JPY Price Forecast: Stalls below 150.00 as Yen recovers from earlier losses
The USD/jPY finished Tuesday’s session with anemic gains of 0.04%.

00:47 GBP/USD tests higher ground ahead of back-to-back central bank rate calls
GBP/USD traded thinly on Tuesday, but still inched back into the 1.3000 handle, chalking in a fresh 19-week high ahead of high-impact rate calls from both the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of England (BoE).

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}GBP/USD pushed back into the 1.3000 handle on Tuesday.Markets are buckling up for a one-two punch of Fed and BoE rate calls.The Fed is expected to hold steady on rates until April, BoE also seen steady.GBP/USD traded thinly on Tuesday, but still inched back into the 1.3000 handle, chalking in a fresh 19-week high ahead of high-impact rate calls from both the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of England (BoE). The Fed is widely expected to hold steady on rates this week, but a fresh update to the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) interest rate expectations will draw plenty of eyes. The Federal Reserve’s (Fed) latest rate call is due on Wednesday. According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, rate markets broadly anticipate the Fed to stand pat on rates for the next two meetings, with the next quarter-point rate trim expected at the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) June meeting. However, the FOMC’s latest interest rate forecasts will be released this week. They could send rate cut expectations through the wringer if Fed policymaker’s expectations for interest rates deviate wildly from current market forecasts. The BoE’s upcoming rate call on Thursday will draw some Cable traders’ attention, but not nearly as much as the Fed’s showing during the midweek market session. After the BoE’s latest rate cut last month, the UK’s central bank is expected to vote 7-to-2 to keep rates unchanged at 4.5%, with two particularly dovish policymakers expected to vote for another quarter-point cut. GBP/USD price forecast GBP/USD is testing into its third straight week of gains, clipping back into the 1.3000 handle for the first time since last November. The pair is now trading 7.5% above January’s multi-month low of 1.2100. Near-term price action is still tilted firmly in favor of Cable bulls, however GBP/USD may have overextended itself as technical oscillators remain pinned deep in overbought territory. GBP/USD daily chart Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

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23:48 AUD/JPY Price Analysis: Bears push lower as key support approaches AUD/JPY extended its decline on Wednesday ahead of the Asian session, slipping toward the 94.50 area after a second consecutive day in the red.

23:45 New Zealand Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) registered at 0.7% above expectations (0.4%) in 4Q New Zealand Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) registered at 0.7% above expectations (0.4%) in 4Q

23:45 New Zealand Gross Domestic Product (YoY) above forecasts (-1.4%) in 4Q: Actual (-1.1%) New Zealand Gross Domestic Product (YoY) above forecasts (-1.4%) in 4Q: Actual (-1.1%)

23:39 Brazil Interest Rate Decision meets forecasts (14.25%) Brazil Interest Rate Decision meets forecasts (14.25%)

22:11 Forex Today: The UK docket takes centre stage with the BoE and jobs report The Greenback managed to regain some balance and set aside three consecutive daily pullbacks after the Fed maintained its interest rates at its meeting, as widely anticipated.

22:10 Gold hits record high past $3,050 as Fed holds rates stable, Powell warns of uncertainty Gold prices rallied sharply and hit a new all-time high of $3,052 on Wednesday as US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell spoke following the Fed’s decision to hold rates unchanged.

22:00 United States Net Long-Term TIC Flows came in at $-45.2B below forecasts ($101.1B) in January United States Net Long-Term TIC Flows came in at $-45.2B below forecasts ($101.1B) in January

22:00 United States Total Net TIC Flows declined to $-48.8B in January from previous $87.1B United States Total Net TIC Flows declined to $-48.8B in January from previous $87.1B

21:00 Argentina Gross Domestic Product (YoY) registered at 2.1% above expectations (1.7%) in 4Q Argentina Gross Domestic Product (YoY) registered at 2.1% above expectations (1.7%) in 4Q

21:00 Argentina Trade Balance (MoM) below expectations ($662M) in February: Actual ($227M) Argentina Trade Balance (MoM) below expectations ($662M) in February: Actual ($227M)

20:49 The Fed's projections signal 50 basis points in rate cuts for 2025 The Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) latest dot plot indicates that interest rates will average 3.9% by the end of 2025, matching the December projection.

20:21 USD/JPY steady near 149.30 as Fed holds rates, signals caution The USD/JPY climbs in Wednesday after the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) decision to keep rates unchanged.

20:17 Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD lurches to $3,040 post-Fed On Wednesday, Gold surged, reaching $3,040 during intraday trading as the Federal Reserve (Fed) made its latest interest rate decision, keeping rates unchanged at 4.5%.

20:16 AUD/USD declines as US Dollar holds firm after Fed keeps rates unchanged The AUD/USD pair retreats toward 0.6340 in the aftermath of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision, as the US Dollar (USD) remains firm.

20:14 GBP/USD spikes as Fed sees slower growth and stubborn inflation GBP/USD lurched higher on Wednesday, tapping 1.2985 in intraday trading after the Federal Reserve's (Fed) latest rate call came in broadly as expected, with the Fed keeping rates steady at 4.5%.

20:11 EUR/USD trims losses as Fed holds rates, signals cautious stance The EUR/USD rallied on Wednesday after the US Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged despite adopting a slightly hawkish approach to the future path of interest rates.

20:10 US Dollar strengthens as Fed maintains rates and signals cautious policy path The US Dollar Index (DXY) is gaining traction near 104.00 after the Federal Reserve decided to keep its benchmark interest rate at 4.5%, maintaining a cautious stance amid evolving inflation and economic conditions.

20:00 United States Fed Interest Rate Decision in line with expectations (4.5%) United States Fed Interest Rate Decision in line with expectations (4.5%)

19:13 Dow Jones Industrial Average treads water ahead of Fed The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) held steady within familiar territory on Wednesday, but holding a bullish stance as investors gear up for another showing from the Federal Reserve (Fed).

18:13 EUR/USD Price Analysis: Bulls lose steam as correction unfolds EUR/USD moved lower on Wednesday after the European session, retreating toward the 1.0895 zone following recent strong gains.

18:00 Russia Producer Price Index (MoM) increased to 0.9% in February from previous 0.5% Russia Producer Price Index (MoM) increased to 0.9% in February from previous 0.5%

18:00 Russia Producer Price Index (YoY): 9.8% (February) vs 9.7% Russia Producer Price Index (YoY): 9.8% (February) vs 9.7%

16:57 GBP/USD slips below 1.30 as traders brace for FOMC’s decision The Pound Sterling dropped 0.20% against the Greenback during the North American session as traders await the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision.

16:30 United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change above expectations (1.17M) in March 14: Actual (1.745M) United States EIA Crude Oil Stocks Change above expectations (1.17M) in March 14: Actual (1.745M)

16:17 USD/JPY revisits two-week high of 150.00 with Fed policy in focus The USD/JPY pair jumps to near the psychological level of 150.00 in North American trading hours on Wednesday.

15:55 GBP tracks peers on the day – Scotiabank Pound Sterling (GBP) is softer on the session, in line with its G10 peers, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategist Shaun Osborne notes.

15:47 EUR drifts lower after another failure around 1.0950 – Scotiabank Spot has drifted a little lower through the overnight session after failing to progress through the mid-1.09s.

15:45 CAD slips back from probe through upper 1.42s – Scotiabank The Canadian Dollar (CAD) rebound petered out below 1.43 yesterday.

15:41 USD lifted by short-covering into FOMC – Scotiabank Markets are settling into ranges as investors curb risk-taking ahead of the FOMC.

15:14 AUD/USD slumps to near 0.6330 as USD rebounds ahead of Fed’s policy AUD/USD corrects further to near 0.6330 as the US Dollar bounces back ahead of the Fed’s monetary policy decision and dot plot.

15:10 ECB's Villeroy: Timing and size of ECB rate cuts depend on data European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau said on Wednesday that the timing and the size of the ECB rate cuts will depend on data.

14:20 US Dollar strengthens ahead of Fed decision The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, ticks up and recovers above 103.50 at the time of writing on Wednesday as the US Dollar (USD) strengthens against most major currencies.

13:23 USD/CAD Price Forecast: Holds key 1.4300 level ahead of Fed’s monetary policy decision The USD/CAD pair rises to near 1.4330 in European trading hours on Wednesday.

13:00 South Africa Retail Sales (YoY) climbed from previous 3.1% to 7% in January South Africa Retail Sales (YoY) climbed from previous 3.1% to 7% in January

13:00 United States MBA Mortgage Applications: -6.2% (March 14) vs previous 11.2% United States MBA Mortgage Applications: -6.2% (March 14) vs previous 11.2%

12:50 USD/CAD holds high above 1.4247 – ING USD/CAD is holding above its 100-day moving average at 1.4247, BBH's FX analysts report.

12:46 NZD/USD can trade below equilibrium to attract foreign investments – BBH NZD/USD retraced some of this week’s gains on USD strength, BBH's FX analysts report.

12:42 USD/CNH: Expected to trade between 7.2200 and 7.2430 – UOB Group US Dollar (USD) is expected to trade between 7.2200 and 7.2430 vs Chinese Yuan (CNH).

12:41 USD/CHF Price Forecast: Strives to gain ground near 0.8750 ahead of Fed policy The USD/CHF pair attracts bids near the three-month low of 0.8750 during European trading hours on Wednesday.

12:33 USD/JPY faces important resistance at the 200-MA around 152.00 – BBH The Bank of Japan (BOJ) delivered a cautious hold and warns against a weaker Japanese Yen (JPY), BBH's FX analysts report.

12:28 USD/JPY: Likely entered a 148.80/149.90 range trading phase – UOB Group US Dollar (USD) has likely entered a 148.80/149.90 range trading phase vs Japanese Yen (JPY).

12:08 EUR/USD declines as US Dollar strengthens ahead of Fed decision EUR/USD falls sharply to slightly below 1.0900 in Wednesday’s European session after posting a fresh five-month high near 1.0955 the previous day.

12:00 Eurozone Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) in line with forecasts (2.6%) in February Eurozone Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) in line with forecasts (2.6%) in February

12:00 Eurozone Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) declined to 0.5% in February from previous 0.6% Eurozone Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) declined to 0.5% in February from previous 0.6%

12:00 Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) below forecasts (2.4%) in February: Actual (2.3%) Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) below forecasts (2.4%) in February: Actual (2.3%)

12:00 Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) registered at 0.4%, below expectations (0.5%) in February Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) registered at 0.4%, below expectations (0.5%) in February

12:00 Eurozone Labor Cost down to 3.7% in 4Q from previous 4.6% Eurozone Labor Cost down to 3.7% in 4Q from previous 4.6%

11:31 Silver price today: Silver falls, according to FXStreet data Silver prices (XAG/USD) fell on Wednesday, according to FXStreet data.

11:29 Gold hits another new all-time high ahead of the Fed Gold’s price (XAU/USD) corrects slightly lower to near $3,030 at the time of writing on Wednesday after stretching higher and hitting a new all-time high at $3,045 earlier in the day.

11:22 EUR/USD is trading right below 1.0900 – BBH EUR/USD is down near 1.0900, reflecting the broad bounce in USD, BBH FX analysts report.

11:19 USD/JPY inches towards the descending trend line drawn since January – Société Générale USD/JPY has embarked on a rebound after forming a trough at 146.50 recently, Société Générale's FX analysts note.

11:18 Palladium price today: Rare metals down at the start of the European session Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) trade with a negative tone at the beginning of Wednesday, according to FXStreet data.

11:14 Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD depreciates toward $33.50 ahead of Fed policy decision Silver price (XAG/USD) retreated after reaching a five-month high of $34.23 on Tuesday, trading around $33.70 per troy ounce during European hours on Wednesday.

11:09 NZD/USD: Rapid buildup in momentum continues to suggest NZD strength – UOB Group New Zealand Dollar (NZD) is likely to trade in a range between 0.5790 and 0.5840.

11:01 EUR/USD to consolidate around current levels in the near term – Danske Bank EUR/USD consolidated above the 1.09 mark after the German Bundestag approved the large fiscal package with a 2/3 majority, Danske Bank's FX analyst Jens Nærvig Pedersen reports.

10:57 AUD/USD: Chance for AUD to break above 0.6410 – UOB Group Australian Dollar (AUD) is likely to consolidate between 0.6340 and 0.6385.

10:56 NZD/USD retreats further from YTD peak, slides below 0.5800 ahead of Fed The NZD/USD pair meets with some supply on Wednesday and moves away from the year-to-date (YTD) top, around the 0.5830 region touched the previous day.

10:53 GBP: Not that strong in the crosses – ING GBP/USD broke the key 1.300 resistance yesterday on the back of USD weakness, ING's FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.

10:47 GBP/USD: Expected to rachet higher in an uneven manner between 1.2955 and 1.3030 – UOB Group Pound Sterling (GBP) is expected to rachet higher in an uneven manner between 1.2955 and 1.3030.

10:40 USD: Fed may defy dovish bets for now – ING The US Dollar (USD) enters FOMC day with a good deal of bearish momentum.

10:36 USD/TRY maintains position near 39.00 amid escalating political risks in Turkey USD/TRY retreats from its record high of 41.70, reached during early European trading hours on Wednesday, hovering around 38.70 at the time of writing.

10:34 Crude oil price today: WTI price bearish at European opening West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price falls on Wednesday, early in the European session.

10:27 EUR/USD: To trade in a choppy manner between 1.0905 and 1.0970 – UOB Group Euro (EUR) could trade in a choppy manner between 1.0905 and 1.0970 vs US Dollar (USD).

10:17 EUR: Peak optimism still in the price – ING As widely expected, the German Bundestag approved the debt break constitutional change yesterday.

10:16 EUR: Peak optimism still in the price – ING As widely expected, the German Bundestag approved the debt break constitutional change yesterday.

10:11 Austria HICP (YoY) came in at 3.4%, below expectations (3.5%) in February Austria HICP (YoY) came in at 3.4%, below expectations (3.5%) in February

10:05 Austria HICP (MoM) came in at 0.5% below forecasts (0.6%) in February Austria HICP (MoM) came in at 0.5% below forecasts (0.6%) in February

10:01 South Africa Consumer Price Index (MoM) increased to 0.9% in February from previous 0.3% South Africa Consumer Price Index (MoM) increased to 0.9% in February from previous 0.3%

10:01 South Africa Consumer Price Index (YoY): 3.2% (February) South Africa Consumer Price Index (YoY): 3.2% (February)

09:59 EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Falls to near 162.50; next support appears at nine-day EMA EUR/JPY pauses its three-day winning streak, hovering around 162.60 during early European trading on Wednesday.

09:58 Pound Sterling trades with caution against US Dollar as Fed policy takes centre stage The Pound Sterling (GBP) struggles to extend the rally above the key level of 1.3000 against the US Dollar (USD) in European trading hours on Wednesday.

09:31 Indonesia Bank Indonesia Rate in line with forecasts (5.75%) Indonesia Bank Indonesia Rate in line with forecasts (5.75%)

08:57 US Dollar Index Price Forecast: Remains bearish near 103.50 despite recent recovery The US Dollar Index (DXY), an index of the value of the US Dollar (USD) measured against a basket of six world currencies, attracts some buyers to around 103.50 during the early European session on Wednesday.

08:55 Forex Today: BoJ maintains status quo, focus shifts to Fed Here is what you need to know on Wednesday, March 19: Investors opt to remain on the sidelines while waiting for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to announce monetary policy decisions following the March meeting.

08:35 BoJ's Ueda: Will keep adjusting degree of easing if our economic, price outlook is to be realised Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo speaks at the post-policy meeting press conference on Wednesday, explaining the Bank’s decision to keep the interest rate steady at 0.50%.

07:57 GBP/JPY extends the rally to near 194.50 as BoJ keeps interest rate steady The GBP/JPY cross extends its upside to 194.40 during the early European session on Wednesday.

07:32 EUR/GBP floats above 0.8400 as Germany approves spending package, BoE’s decision looms EUR/GBP remains steady after gaining in the previous session, hovering around 0.8420 during Asian trading hours on Wednesday.

07:28 USD/CAD moves away from two-week low set on Tuesday, retakes 1.4300 ahead of Fed The USD/CAD pair is seen building on the overnight bounce from the 1.4260 area, or a nearly two-week low, and gaining some follow-through positive traction for the second straight day on Wednesday.

06:54 FX option expiries for Mar 19 NY cut FX option expiries for Mar 19 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.